111 research outputs found
Negative outcomes evoke cyclic irrational decisions in Rock, Paper, Scissors
Rock, Paper, Scissors (RPS) represents a unique gaming space in which the predictions of human
rational decision-making can be compared with actual performance. Playing a computerized opponent
adopting a mixed-strategy equilibrium, participants revealed a non-significant tendency to over-select
Rock. Further violations of rational decision-making were observed using an inter-trial analysis where
participants were more likely to switch their item selection at trial n + 1 following a loss or draw at
trial n, revealing the strategic vulnerability of individuals following the experience of negative rather
than positive outcome. Unique switch strategies related to each of these trial n outcomes were also
identified: after losing participants were more likely to ‘downgrade’ their item (e.g., Rock followed by
Scissors) but after drawing participants were more likely to ‘upgrade’ their item (e.g., Rock followed by
Paper). Further repetition analysis revealed that participants were more likely to continue their specific
cyclic item change strategy into trial n + 2. The data reveal the strategic vulnerability of individuals
following the experience of negative rather than positive outcome, the tensions between behavioural
and cognitive influences on decision making, and underline the dangers of increased behavioural
predictability in other recursive, non-cooperative environments such as economics and politics
Genome-wide association study identifies PERLD1 as asthma candidate gene
10.1186/1471-2350-12-170BMC Medical Genetics12-BMGM
Vertical Intra-Industry Trade, Technology and Income Distribution: A Panel Data Analysis of EU Trade with Central-East European Countries
This article tests a Heckscher-Ohlin framework versus a neo-Ricardian framework for explaining vertical intra-industry trade. The study applies panel techniques with instrument variables to analyse trade between 'old' EU and 10 Central-East European countries in their transition period. Results show country-pair fixed effects to be of high relevance for explaining vertical intra-industry trade. Technology differences are positively, while differences in factor endowment measured in GDP per capita, are negatively correlated with vertical intra-industry trade, and confirm the relevance of the neo-Ricardian framework. In addition, changing bilateral differences in personal income distribution during the transition of Central-East European countries towards a market economy contribute to changes in vertical intra-industry trade
A calculator program for clinical application of the Bayesian method of predicting plasma drug levels
A pharmacokinetic program that allows individualization of drug dosage regimens through the Bayesian method is described. The program, which is designed for the Hewlett-Packard HP-41 CV calculator, is based upon the one-compartment open model with either instantaneous or zero-order absorption. Individualized estimation of the patient's kinetic parameters (clearance and volume of distribution) is performed by analyzing the plasma levels measured in the patient as well as considering the population data of the drug. After estimating the individual kinetic parameters by the Bayesian method, the program predicts the dosage regimen that will elicit the desired peak and trough plasma levels at steady state. For comparison purposes, the least-squares estimates for clearance and volume of distribution are calculated, and dosage prediction can also be made on the basis of the least-squares estimates. The least-squares estimates can be used to calculate population pharmacokinetic parameters according to the Standard Two-Stage method.Several examples of clinical use of the program are presented. The examples refer to patients with classic hemophilia who were treated with Factor VIII concentrates. In these patients, the Bayesian kinetic parameters of Factor VIII have been estimated through the calculator program. The Bayesian parameter estimates generated by the HP-41 have been compared with those determined by a Bayesian program (ADVISE) designed for microcomputers.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25858/1/0000421.pd
SN 2022oqm: A Multi-peaked Calcium-rich Transient from a White Dwarf Binary Progenitor System
We present the photometric and spectroscopic evolution of SN 2022oqm, a
nearby multi-peaked hydrogen- and helium-weak calcium-rich transient (CaRT). SN
2022oqm was detected 19.9 kpc from its host galaxy, the face-on spiral galaxy
NGC 5875. Extensive spectroscopic coverage reveals a hot (T >= 40,000 K)
continuum and carbon features observed ~1 day after discovery, SN Ic-like
photospheric-phase spectra, and strong forbidden calcium emission starting 38
days after discovery. SN 2022oqm has a relatively high peak luminosity (MB =
-17 mag) for CaRTs, making it an outlier in the population. We determine that
three power sources are necessary to explain SN 2022oqm's light curve, with
each power source corresponding to a distinct peak in its light curve. The
first peak of the light curve is powered by an expanding blackbody with a power
law luminosity, consistent with shock cooling by circumstellar material.
Subsequent peaks are powered by a double radioactive decay model, consistent
with two separate sources of photons diffusing through an optically thick
ejecta. From the optical light curve, we derive an ejecta mass and 56Ni mass of
~0.89 solar masses and ~0.09 solar masses, respectively. Detailed spectroscopic
modeling reveals ejecta that is dominated by intermediate-mass elements, with
signs that Fe-peak elements have been well-mixed. We discuss several physical
origins for SN 2022oqm and favor a white dwarf progenitor model. The inferred
ejecta mass points to a surprisingly massive white dwarf, challenging models of
CaRT progenitors.Comment: 33 pages, 17 figures, 5 tables, Submitted to Ap
ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA DOS FATORES QUE POSSIBILITARAM ENTRADAS NA INDÚSTRIA DE CIMENTO BRASILEIRA
- …