Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean are quantified by using the probability distributions derived from observed 20th century temperature changes. The impact on climate change projections of using the smallest and largest estimates of 20th century deep ocean warming is explored. The impact is large in the case of global mean thermosteric sea level rise. In the MIT reference ("business as usual") scenario the median rise by 2100 is 27 and 43 cm in the respective cases. The impact on increases in global mean surface air temperature is more modest, 4.9 C and 3.9 C in the two respective cases, because of the correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake required by 20th century surface and upper air temperature changes. The results are also compared with the projections made by the IPCC AR4's multi-model ensemble for several of the SRES scenarios. The multi-model projections are more consistent with the MIT projections based on the largest estimate of ocean warming. However the range for the rate of heat uptake by the ocean suggested by the lowest estimate of ocean warming is more consistent with the range suggested by the 20th century changes in surface and upper air temperatures, combined with expert prior for climate sensitivity.This work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Dept. of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Measurements of the magnetic field induced by a turbulent flow of liquid metal

Initial results from the Madison Dynamo Experiment provide details of the inductive response of a turbulent flow of liquid sodium to an applied magnetic field. The magnetic field structure is reconstructed from both internal and external measurements. A mean toroidal magnetic field is induced by the flow when an axial field is applied, thereby demonstrating the omega effect. Poloidal magnetic flux is expelled from the fluid by the poloidal flow. Small-scale magnetic field structures are generated by turbulence in the flow. The resulting magnetic power spectrum exhibits a power-law scaling consistent with the equipartition of the magnetic field with a turbulent velocity field. The magnetic power spectrum has an apparent knee at the resistive dissipation scale. Large-scale eddies in the flow cause significant changes to the instantaneous flow profile resulting in intermittent bursts of non-axisymmetric magnetic fields, demonstrating that the transition to a dynamo is not smooth for a turbulent flow.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figures, invited talk by C. B. Forest at 2005 APS DPP meeting, resubmitted to Physics of Plasma

Corporate Social Responsibility Through an Economic Lens

Business leaders, government officials, and academics are focusing considerable attention on the concept of "corporate social responsibility" (CSR), particularly in the realm of environmental protection. Beyond complete compliance with environmental regulations, do firms have additional moral or social responsibilities to commit resources to environmental protection? How should we think about the notion of firms sacrificing profits in the social interest? May they do so within the scope of their fiduciary responsibilities to their shareholders? Can they do so on a sustainable basis, or will the forces of a competitive marketplace render such efforts and their impacts transient at best? Do firms, in fact, frequently or at least sometimes behave this way, reducing their earnings by voluntarily engaging in environmental stewardship? And finally, should firms carry out such profit-sacrificing activities (i.e., is this an efficient use of social resources)? We address these questions through the lens of economics, including insights from legal analysis and business scholarship.Corporate Social Responsibility, Voluntary Environmental Performance

Intermittent magnetic field excitation by a turbulent flow of liquid sodium

The magnetic field measured in the Madison Dynamo Experiment shows intermittent periods of growth when an axial magnetic field is applied. The geometry of the intermittent field is consistent with the fastest growing magnetic eigenmode predicted by kinematic dynamo theory using a laminar model of the mean flow. Though the eigenmodes of the mean flow are decaying, it is postulated that turbulent fluctuations of the velocity field change the flow geometry such that the eigenmode growth rate is temporarily positive. Therefore, it is expected that a characteristic of the onset of a turbulent dynamo is magnetic intermittency.Comment: 5 pages, 7 figure

A domain-specific analysis system for examining nuclear reactor simulation data for light-water and sodium-cooled fast reactors

Building a new generation of fission reactors in the United States presents many technical and regulatory challenges. One important challenge is the need to share and present results from new high-fidelity, high-performance simulations in an easily usable way. Since modern multiscale, multi-physics simulations can generate petabytes of data, they will require the development of new techniques and methods to reduce the data to familiar quantities of interest (e.g., pin powers, temperatures) with a more reasonable resolution and size. Furthermore, some of the results from these simulations may be new quantities for which visualization and analysis techniques are not immediately available in the community and need to be developed. This paper describes a new system for managing high-performance simulation results in a domain-specific way that naturally exposes quantities of interest for light water and sodium-cooled fast reactors. It describes requirements to build such a system and the technical challenges faced in its development at all levels (simulation, user interface, etc.). An example comparing results from two different simulation suites for a single assembly in a light-water reactor is presented, along with a detailed discussion of the system's requirements and design.Comment: Article on NiCE's Reactor Analyzer. 23 pages. Keywords: modeling, simulation, analysis, visualization, input-outpu

Observation of a Turbulence-Induced Large Scale Magnetic Field

An axisymmetric magnetic field is applied to a spherical, turbulent flow of liquid sodium. An induced magnetic dipole moment is measured which cannot be generated by the interaction of the axisymmetric mean flow with the applied field, indicating the presence of a turbulent electromotive force. It is shown that the induced dipole moment should vanish for any axisymmetric laminar flow. Also observed is the production of toroidal magnetic field from applied poloidal magnetic field (the omega-effect). Its potential role in the production of the induced dipole is discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures Revisions to accomodate peer-reviewer concerns; changes to main text including simplification of a proof, Fig. 2 updated, and minor typos and clarifications; Added refrences. Resubmitted to Phys. Rev. Let

The Development of Electrical Strain Gages

The design, construction, and properties of an electrical-resistance strain gage consisting of fine wires molded in a laminated plastic are described. The properties of such gages are discussed and also the problems of molding of wires in plastic materials, temperature compensation, and cementing and removal of the gages. Further work to be carried out on the strain gage, together with instrument problems, is discussed

Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.4 to 9.2 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s decade shifted towards positive values to compensate for the now included volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of -0.7 to -0.16 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is also reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.25 to 7.3 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.This work was supported in part by the NOAA Climate Change Data and Detection Program with support from DOE, the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT, and the Office of Science (BER) DOE Grant No.DE-FG02-93ER61677

Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th Century Changes

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change observations from the 20th century. First, we compare observed changes in surface, upper-air, and deep-ocean temperature changes against simulations of 20th century climate in which the climate model parameters were systematically varied. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.0 to 5.0 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s has 90% bounds of -0.70 to -0.27 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake corresponds to an effective diffusivity, Kv, with a 90% range of 0.04 to 4.1 cm2/s. Second, we estimate the effective climate sensitivity and rate of deep-ocean heat uptake for 11 of the IPCC AR4 AOGCMs. By comparing against the acceptable combinations inferred by the observations, we conclude that the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake for the majority of AOGCMs lie above the observationally based median value. This implies a bias in the predictions inferred from the IPCC models alone. This bias can be seen in the range of transient climate response from the AOGCMs as compared to that from the observational constraints.This work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Dept. of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change