Global anthropogenic methane emissions 2005-2030: Technical mitigation potentials and costs

This paper presents estimates of current and future global anthropogenic methane emissions, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2030. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic methane for 83 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global emissions are estimated at 323 Mt methane in 2005, with an expected increase to 414 Mt methane in 2030. The technical mitigation potential is estimated at 195 Mt methane in 2030, whereof about 80 percent is found attainable at a marginal cost less than 20 Euro t-1 CO2eq when using a social planner cost perspective. With a private investor cost perspective, the corresponding fraction is only 30 percent. Major uncertainty sources in emission estimates are identified and discussed

Methane and ethane from global oil and gas production: bottom-up simulations over three decades

Existing bottom-up emission inventories of historical methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems do not well explain year-on-year variations estimated by top-down models from atmospheric measurements. This paper develops a bottom-up methodology which allows for country- and year specific source attribution of methane and ethane emissions from global oil and natural gas production for the period 1980 to 2012. The analysis rests on country-specific simulations of associated gas flows which are converted into methane and ethane emissions. The associated gas flows are constructed from country-specific information on oil and gas production and associated gas generation and recovery, and coupled with generic assumptions to bridge regional information gaps on the fractions of unrecovered associated gas that is vented instead of flared. Summing up emissions from associated gas flows with global estimates of emissions from unintended leakage and natural gas transmission and distribution, the resulting global emissions of methane and ethane from oil and gas systems are reasonably consistent with corresponding estimates from top-down models. Also revealed is that the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 had a significant impact on methane and ethane emissions from global oil and gas systems

The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0: Methane (CH4)

Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, offering a cost-effective potential for simultaneous improvements of traditional air pollution problems and climate change. A methodology has been developed to extend the RAINS integrated assessment model to explore synergies and trade-offs between the control of greenhouse gases and air pollution. With this extension, the GAINS (GHG-Air pollution INteraction and Synergies) model will allow the assessment of emission control costs for the six greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O and the three F-gases) together with the emissions of air pollutants SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3 and PM. This report describes the first implementation (Version 1.0) of the model extension model to incorporate CH4 emissions. GAINS Version 1.0 assesses the options for reducing N2O emissions from the various source categories. It quantifies for 43 countries/regions in Europe country-specific application potentials of the various options in the different sectors of the economy, and estimates the societal resource costs of these measures. Mitigation potentials are estimated in relation to an exogenous baseline projection that is considered to reflect current planning. The report identifies 28 control measures, ranging from animal feed changes over waste management options to various approaches for gas recovery and utilization. For each of these options, the report examines country-specific applicability and removal efficiency and determines the costs. As a result, CH4 emissions in Europe are estimated for the year 1990 at 63,600 kt CH4. Assuming the penetration of emission controls as laid down in the current legislation, emissions would decline up to 2020 by 12,600 kt CH4 per year. Full application of the presently available emission control measures could achieve an additional decline in European CH4 emissions by 24,000 kt per year. Seventy percent of this potential could be attained at a cost of less than two billion Euro/year or Euro/ton CO2- equivalent, while the further 7,000 kt CH4/year would require costs of 12 billion Euro/year

The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases: Emissions, Control Potentials and Control Costs for Methane

This report estimates current and future emissions of methane in 42 regions in Europe, assesses the potential for reducing emissions and quantifies the costs of the available emission control measures. The report identifies 28 control measures, ranging from animal feed changes over waste management options to various approaches for gas recovery and utilization. For each of these options, the report examines country-specific applicability and removal efficiency and determines the costs. As a result, methane emissions in Europe are estimated for the year 1990 at 64,200 kt CH4. Assuming the penetration of emission controls as laid down in the current legislation, emissions would decline up to 2020 by 11,700 kt CH4 per year. Full application of the presently available emission control measures could achieve an additional decline in European methane emissions by 24,000 kt per year. 75 percent of this potential could be attained at a cost of less than two billion Euros/year or 50 Euros/t CO2-equivalent, while the further 5,000 kt CH4/year would require costs of 12 billion Euros/year

Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases until 2050: technical mitigation potentials and cost

The anthropogenic fluorinated (F-gases) greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly in recent years and are estimated to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase out of ozonedepleting substances (ODS) under the Montreal Protocol. F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) are potent greenhouse gases, with a global warming effect up to 22,800 times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2). This study presents estimates of current and future global emissions of F-gases, their technical mitigation potential and associated costs for the period 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses the GAINS model framework to estimate emissions, mitigation potentials and costs for all major sources of anthropogenic F-gases for 162 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. For each region, 18 emission source sectors with mitigation potentials and costs were identified. Global F-gas emissions are estimated at 0.7 Gt CO2eq in 2005 with an expected increase to about 3.6 Gt CO2eq in 2050. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions by over 95 percent primarily through replacement with existing low GWP substances. The initial results indicate that at least half of the mitigation potential is attainable at a cost of less than 20C per t CO2eq, while almost 90 percent reduction is attainable at less than 100C per t CO2eq. Currently, several policy proposals have been presented to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially curb global HFC use. We analyze the technical potentials and costs associated with the HFC mitigation required under the different proposed Montreal Protocol amendments

Potentials and Costs for Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Annex 1 Countries: Version 2.0

This report documents the specific methodology of IIASA's GAINS model on methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases that has been used for comparing mitigation efforts across Annex I Parties. More details are available at gains.iiasa.ac.at

Impacts of the Kigali Amendment to phase-down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in Asia

The Montreal Protocol (UNEP, 2007) has successfully worked to phase out the use of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) primarily by substituting the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochloroflourocarbons (HCFCs) with hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in various sectors such as refrigeration, air-conditioning, aerosols, fire extinguishers and foam blowing. As well, HFC-23 is generated as a by-product of HCFC-22 production for feedstock and emissive use. The high Global Warming Potentials (GWP) of HFCs replacing ODSs is a climate concern and the reason behind the Kigali Amendment of the Montreal Protocol adopted during the 28th Meeting of the Parties 8-14 October 2016 in Kigali, Rwanda (UNEP, 2016a) to phase-down the use of HFCs globally by 2050. HFC emissions have increased significantly in recent years and can without a targeted HFC phase-down be expected to rise further in response to increased demand for cooling services and the phase-out of ODSs. The focus of this study is to analyze the implications on emissions and co-benefits like electricity savings of meeting the HFC phase-down targets in Asian countries set out in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. We develop baseline and alternative policy scenarios for Asian countries using the HFC module of the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (http://gains.iiasa.ac.at) framework developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and described in Purohit and Höglund-Isaksson (2017). The report is structured as follows: Section 2 briefly explains different policy scenarios analyzed in this study. Section 3 highlights key control measures adopted by Asian countries. Section 4 presents estimated HFC emissions in different policy scenarios along with mitigation potentials and discusses possible co-benefits associated with mitigation. Section 5 concludes key findings and policy recommendations

Growth and characteristics of type-II InAs/GaSb superlattice-based detectors

We report on growth and device performance of infrared photodetectors based on type II InAs/Ga(In)Sb strain layer superlattices (SLs) using the complementary barrier infrared detector (CBIRD) design. The unipolar barriers on either side of the absorber in the CBIRD design in combination with the type-II InAs/GaSb superlattice material system are expected to outperform traditional III-V LWIR imaging technologies and offer significant advantages over the conventional II-VI material based FPAs. The innovative design of CBIRDS, low defect density material growth, and robust fabrication processes have resulted in the development of high performance long wave infrared (LWIR) focal plane arrays at JPL