Empirical analyses of the length, weight, and condition of adult Atlantic salmon on return to the Scottish coast between 1963 and 2006

Sea age, size, and condition of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) are prime determinants of individual, and hence population, productivity. To elucidate potential mechanisms, 151 000 records of salmon returning to six Scottish coastal sites over 44 years were analysedfor length, weight, and condition, by site, sex, sea age, and river age. After correcting for capture effort biases, all sites showed seasonal increases in length and weight for both 1 sea winter (1SW) and 2SW fish. However, whereas condition increased slightly with season for 2SW, it decreased notably for 1SW. Sites showed common decadal trends in length, weight, and condition. Within years, length and weight residuals from trends were coherent across sites, but residuals from condition trends were not. Rates of seasonal condition change also showed decadal trends, dramatically different between sea ages, but common across sites within sea-age groups. Longer salmon were disproportionately heavy in all seasons. 1SW condition was markedly lower in 2006. Detrended correlations withoceanic environmental variables were generally not significant, and always weak. A published correlation between the condition of 1SW salmon caught at a single site and sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Atlantic could not be substantiated for any of the six fisheries over the wider time-scales examined

Comparative analysis of Calanus finmarchicus demography at locations around the Northeast Atlantic

Standardized time-series sampling was carried out throughout 1997 at seven locations around the Northeast Atlantic to investigate regional variations in the seasonal demography of Calanus finmarchicus. Sites ranged from an inshore location in the North Sea, where C. finmarchicus formed only a small component of the zooplankton (2000 mgC m-2 during spring and summer). The internal consistency of the demographic time-series from each site was investigated by three partial models of life-cycle processes. In general, the demography of late copepodites could be accounted for by a relatively simple forecast model of stage development and diapause. However, there was a large discrepancy between nowcast estimates of egg production based on female abundance, temperature, and chlorophyll, and hindcast simulations of the egg production required to account for the observed abundance of early copepodite stages. The results point to a gap in our understanding of seasonal variations in rates of egg production and/or survival of nauplii. Overall, the population sampled at Weathership M appeared to be reasonably self-contained, but all other sites were reliant on invasion of overwintered stock in spring. At least two generations were observed at all but one site, but the extent to which these were generated by discrete bursts of egg production varied between sites and seemed to be partly dependent on the proximity to an overwintering location

Stable Coexistence of an Invasive Plant and Biocontrol Agent: A Parameterized Coupled Plant-Herbivore Model

1. Coupled plant-herbivore models, allowing feedback from plant to herbivore populations and vice versa, enable us to predict the impact of biocontrol agents on their target weed populations; however, they are rarely used in biocontrol studies. We describe the population biology of the invasive plant Echium plantagineum and the weevil Mogulones larvatus, a biocontrol agent, in Australia. In order to understand the dynamics of this plant-herbivore system, a series of coupled models of increasing complexity was developed. 2. A simple model was extended to include a seed bank, density-dependent plant fecundity, competition between weevil larvae and plant tolerance of herbivory, where below a threshold plants could compensate for larval feeding. Parameters and functional forms were estimated from experimental and field data. 3. The plant model, in the absence of the weevil, exhibited stable dynamics and provided a good quantitative description of field densities before the weevil was introduced. 4. In the coupled plant-herbivore model, density dependence in both plant fecundity and weevil larval competition stabilized the dynamics. Without larval competition the model was unstable, and plant tolerance of herbivory exacerbated this instability. This was a result of a time delay in plant response to herbivore densities. 5. Synthesis and applications. The coupled plant-herbivore model allowed us to predict whether stable coexistence of target plant and biocontrol agents was achievable at an acceptable level. We found this to be the case for the Echium-Mogulones system and believe that similar models would be of use when assessing new agents in this and other invasive plant biocontrol systems. Density dependence in new biocontrol agents should be assessed in order to determine whether it is likely to result in the aims of classical biocontrol: low, stable and sustainable populations of plant and herbivore. Further work should be done to characterize the strength of density dependence according to the niche occupied by the biocontrol agent, for example the strength and functional form of density dependence in stem borers may be quite different to that of defoliators

A jump-growth model for predator-prey dynamics: derivation and application to marine ecosystems

This paper investigates the dynamics of biomass in a marine ecosystem. A stochastic process is defined in which organisms undergo jumps in body size as they catch and eat smaller organisms. Using a systematic expansion of the master equation, we derive a deterministic equation for the macroscopic dynamics, which we call the deterministic jump-growth equation, and a linear Fokker-Planck equation for the stochastic fluctuations. The McKendrick--von Foerster equation, used in previous studies, is shown to be a first-order approximation, appropriate in equilibrium systems where predators are much larger than their prey. The model has a power-law steady state consistent with the approximate constancy of mass density in logarithmic intervals of body mass often observed in marine ecosystems. The behaviours of the stochastic process, the deterministic jump-growth equation and the McKendrick--von Foerster equation are compared using numerical methods. The numerical analysis shows two classes of attractors: steady states and travelling waves.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures. Final version as published. Only minor change