Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: Combining the strengths of manual and automatic methods

Automatic methods for model calibration seek to take advantage of the speed and power of digital computers, while being objective and relatively easy to implement. However, they do not provide parameter estimates and hydrograph simulations that are considered acceptable by the hydrologists responsible for operational forecasting and have therefore not entered into widespread use. In contrast, the manual approach which has been developed and refined over the years to result in excellent model calibrations is complicated and highly labor-intensive, and the expertise acquired by one individual with a specific model is not easily transferred to another person (or model). In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach that combines the strengths of each. A multicriteria formulation is used to "model" the evaluation techniques and strategies used in manual calibration, and the resulting optimization problem is solved by means of a computerized algorithm. The new approach provides a stronger test of model performance than methods that use a single overall statistic to aggregate model errors over a large range of hydrologic behaviors. The power of the new approach is illustrated by means of a case study using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model

Toward improved streamflow forecasts: Value of semidistributed modeling

The focus of this study is to assess the performance improvements of semidistributed applications of the U.S. National Weather Service Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model on a watershed using radar-based remotely sensed precipitation data. Specifically, performance comparisons are made within an automated multicriteria calibration framework to evaluate the benefit of "spatial distribution" of the model input (precipitation), structural components (soil moisture and streamflow routing computations), and surface characteristics (parameters). A comparison of these results is made with those obtained through manual calibration. Results indicate that for the study watershed, there are performance improvements associated with semidistributed model applications when the watershed is partitioned into three subwatersheds; however, no additional benefit is gained from increasing the number of subwatersheds from three to eight. Improvements in model performance are demonstrably related to the spatial distribution of the model input and streamflow routing. Surprisingly, there is no improvement associated with the distribution of the surface characteristics (model parameters)

Persistent variations in national asthma mortality, hospital admissions and prevalence by socioeconomic status and region in England

Background The UK-wide National Review of Asthma Deaths sought to identify avoidable factors from the high numbers of deaths, but did not examine variation by socioeconomic status (SES) or region. Methods We used asthma deaths in England over the period 2002–2015 obtained from national deaths registers, summarised by quintiles of Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and Government Office Region. Emergency asthma admissions were obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics for England 2001–2011. The prevalence of asthma was derived from the Health Survey for England 2010. Associations of mortality, admissions and prevalence with IMD quintile and region were estimated cross-sectionally using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) adjusted for age and sex and, where possible, smoking. Results Asthma mortality decreased among more deprived groups at younger ages. Among 5–44 year olds, those in the most deprived quintile, mortality was 19% lower than those in the least deprived quintile (IRR 0.81 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.96). In older adults, this pattern was reversed (45–74 years: IRR 1.37 (1.24–1.52), ≥75 years: IRR 1.30 (1.22–1.39)). In 5–44 year olds the inverse trend with asthma mortality contrasted with large positive associations for admissions (IRR 3.34 (3.30–3.38)) and prevalence of severe symptoms (IRR 2.38 (1.70–3.33)). Prevalence trends remained after adjustment for smoking. IRRs for asthma mortality, admissions and prevalence showed significant heterogeneity between English regions. Conclusions Despite asthma mortality, emergency admissions and prevalence decreasing over recent decades, England still experiences significant SES and regional variations. The previously undocumented inverse relation between deprivation and mortality in the young requires further investigation

A guide to chemokines and their receptors

The chemokines (or chemotactic cytokines) are a large family of small, secreted proteins that signal through cell surface G‐protein coupled heptahelical chemokine receptors. They are best known for their ability to stimulate the migration of cells, most notably white blood cells (leukocytes). Consequently, chemokines play a central role in the development and homeostasis of the immune system, and are involved in all protective or destructive immune and inflammatory responses. Classically viewed as inducers of directed chemotactic migration, it is now clear that chemokines can stimulate a variety of other types of directed and undirected migratory behaviour, such as haptotaxis, chemokinesis, and haptokinesis, in addition to inducing cell arrest or adhesion. However, chemokine receptors on leukocytes can do more than just direct migration, and these molecules can also be expressed on, and regulate the biology of, many non‐leukocytic cell types. Chemokines are profoundly affected by post‐translational modification, by interaction with the extracellular matrix (ECM), and by binding to heptahelical ‘atypical’ chemokine receptors that regulate chemokine localisation and abundance. This guide gives a broad overview of the chemokine and chemokine receptor families; summarises the complex physical interactions that occur in the chemokine network; and, using specific examples, discusses general principles of chemokine function, focussing particularly on their ability to direct leukocyte migration

All states stand to save electricity were Indian Standard Time to be advanced

Earlier estimates of electricity savings from advancing Indian Standard Time (IST) to GMT + 6:00 using regional load curves provided encouraging results of savings during evenings. This persuaded us to undertake this more accurate study involving 13 states that account for 85% of India’s annual electricity consumption. As we expected, the savings obtained were higher than estimates from the five electrical regions of the country. Although advancing IST would benefit the northeastern and eastern regions, there is an apprehension that later dawns may inconvenience people in the north and northwest. In response we present data on postponement of the latest winter dawns in state capitals. We also report on the flattening of load curves in the six highest electricity consuming states and discuss how this affects the results

Online unit clustering in higher dimensions

We revisit the online Unit Clustering and Unit Covering problems in higher dimensions: Given a set of $n$ points in a metric space, that arrive one by one, Unit Clustering asks to partition the points into the minimum number of clusters (subsets) of diameter at most one; while Unit Covering asks to cover all points by the minimum number of balls of unit radius. In this paper, we work in $\mathbb{R}^d$ using the $L_\infty$ norm. We show that the competitive ratio of any online algorithm (deterministic or randomized) for Unit Clustering must depend on the dimension $d$. We also give a randomized online algorithm with competitive ratio $O(d^2)$ for Unit Clustering}of integer points (i.e., points in $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\in \mathbb{N}$, under $L_{\infty}$ norm). We show that the competitive ratio of any deterministic online algorithm for Unit Covering is at least $2^d$. This ratio is the best possible, as it can be attained by a simple deterministic algorithm that assigns points to a predefined set of unit cubes. We complement these results with some additional lower bounds for related problems in higher dimensions.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. A preliminary version appeared in the Proceedings of the 15th Workshop on Approximation and Online Algorithms (WAOA 2017

Transmit Power Minimization for MIMO Systems of Exponential Average BER with Fixed Outage Probability

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Dian-Wu Yue, and Yichuang Sun, ‘Transmit Power Minimization for MIMO Systems of Exponential Average BER with Fixed Outage Probability’, Wireless Personal Communications, Vol. 90 (4): 1951-1970, first available online on 20 June 2016. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 20 June 2017. The final publication is available at Springer via https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11277-016-3432-4This paper is concerned with a wireless multiple-antenna system operating in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) fading channels with channel state information being known at both transmitter and receiver. By spatiotemporal subchannel selection and power control, it aims to minimize the average transmit power (ATP) of the MIMO system while achieving an exponential type of average bit error rate (BER) for each data stream. Under the constraints on each subchannel that individual outage probability and average BER are given, based on a traditional upper bound and a dynamic upper bound of Q function, two closed-form ATP expressions are derived, respectively, which can result in two different power allocation schemes. Numerical results are provided to validate the theoretical analysis, and show that the power allocation scheme with the dynamic upper bound can achieve more power savings than the one with the traditional upper bound.Peer reviewe

Achieving optimal adherence to medical therapy by telehealth: Findings from the ORBITA medication adherence sub-study

INTRODUCTION: The ORBITA trial of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) versus a placebo procedure for patients with stable angina was conducted across six sites in the United Kingdom via home monitoring and telephone consultations. Patients underwent detailed assessment of medication adherence which allowed us to measure the efficacy of the implementation of the optimization protocol and interpretation of the main trial endpoints. METHODS: Prescribing data were collected throughout the trial. Self-reported adherence was assessed, and urine samples collected at pre-randomization and at follow-up for direct assessment of adherence using high-performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC MS/MS). RESULTS: Self-reported adherence was >96% for all drugs in both treatment groups at both stages. The percentage of samples in which drug was detected at pre-randomization and at follow-up in the PCI versus placebo groups respectively was: clopidogrel, 96% versus 90% and 98% versus 94%; atorvastatin, 95% versus 92% and 92% versus 91%; perindopril, 95% versus 97% and 85% versus 100%; bisoprolol, 98% versus 99% and 96% versus 97%; amlodipine, 99% versus 99% and 94% versus 96%; nicorandil, 98% versus 96% and 94% versus 92%; ivabradine, 100% versus 100% and 100% versus 100%; and ranolazine, 100% versus 100% and 100% versus 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence levels were high throughout the study when quantified by self-reporting methods and similarly high proportions of drug were detected by urinary assay. The results indicate successful implementation of the optimization protocol delivered by telephone, an approach that could serve as a model for treatment of chronic conditions, particularly as consultations are increasingly conducted online