Appendix A. Tables and figures showing the sampling locations, morphological groups of ophiostomatoid isolates, and models of the number of infested trees and frequency of Sporothrix sp.1 isolates in the field.

Tables and figures showing the sampling locations, morphological groups of ophiostomatoid isolates, and models of the number of infested trees and frequency of Sporothrix sp.1 isolates in the field

Pathways.

<p>Results of the Wilcoxon test to compare the effects of rivers, river ports, lakes, railways and human population density (<i>H</i>) between infested points and random points, for three neighbourhoods (<i>N</i>120, <i>N</i>60, <i>N</i>30). The sample size of both datasets (observed and random data) was <i>n</i> = 156.</p

Monitoring data set.

<p>Annual changes in the number of dead trees over fifteen years after the introduction of <i>Bursaphelencus xylophilus</i> at seven locations in China.</p

Climate suitability and model prediction of the invasion probability under various climate scenarios.

<p>Potentially favourable areas according to normal temperatures over 1951–1980 (dark red), and 3°C of temperature increase (dark+light red is the potential expansion area) (Panel A). White dots represent locations already infested. Invasion probability predicted by the dispersal model: in 2005 (Panel B), in 2025 under the assumption of a stable climate (Panel C), and in 2025 under the assumption of a constant warming (+0.03°C/yr) (Panel D). White dots represent locations infested until 2005, and in Panel A, white dots with a black point inside represent infested locations where the predicted invasion probability in 2005 is zero.</p

Estimation of short and long distance dispersal ability from data analysis.

<p>Distance spread (up to 100 km) from the first introduction point around Nanjing (Panel A). Corrected invasion probability as a function of human population density (Panel B). The grey line is the regression line. Grey dots were discarded from this analysis. Long-distance dispersal kernels (Panel C): observed probabilities over 1982–2005 (dash line), observed probabilities before and after 2001 (grey and black dots, respectively), and estimated probabilities before and after 2001 (grey and black lines, respectively).</p

Invasion data and potential driving factors.

<p>The pinewood nematode invasion in China between 1982 and 2005 (Panel A). The first pinewood nematode observation in China (in Nanjing) is represented by a white star. Spatial distribution of 10 susceptible tree species (Panel B). Black dots represent locations already infested. Potential anthropogenic pathways (Panel C), and spatial distribution of human-population density in 2000 (Panel D).</p