The Anyang Esophageal Cancer Cohort Study: Study Design, Implementation of Fieldwork, and Use of Computer-Aided Survey System

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been observed repeatedly in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) tissues. However, the causal relationship between HPV infection and the onset of ESCC remains unknown. A large cohort study focusing on this topic is being carried out in rural Anyang, China. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Anyang Esophageal Cancer Cohort Study (AECCS) is a population-based prospective endoscopic cohort study designed to investigate the association of HPV infection and ESCC. This paper provides information regarding the design and implementation of this study. In particular we describe the recruitment strategies and quality control procedures which have been put into place, and the custom designed computer-aided survey system (CASS) used for this project. This system integrates barcode technology and unique identification numbers, and has been developed to facilitate real-time data management throughout the workflow using a wireless local area network. A total of 8,112 (75.3%) of invited subjects participated in the baseline endoscopic examination; of those invited two years later to take part in the first cycle of follow-up, 91.9 % have complied. Conclusions/Significance: The AECCS study has high potential for evaluating the causal relationship between HPV infection and the occurrence of ESCC. The experience in setting up the AECCS may be beneficial for others planning to initiate simila

An evaluation of EQ-5D-3L health utility scores using five country-specific tariffs in a rural population aged 45-69 years in Hua county, Henan province, China.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to compare the performance of the recently developed Chinese (city) tariff of the EQ-5D-3L against the UK, US, Japanese and Korean tariffs in a general rural population in China. METHODS: From November 2015 to September 2016, 12,085 permanent residents aged 45-69 from 257 villages randomly selected from Hua County, Henan Province, China, were interviewed using EQ-5D-3L, and a one-on-one questionnaire investigation was used to collect data on factors associated with HRQOL. The health utility scores were calculated using the UK, US, Japanese, Korean and Chinese (city) tariffs. The agreement, known-groups validity and sensitivity of these five tariffs were evaluated. Transition scores for pairs of observed EQ-5D-3L health states were calculated and compared. RESULTS: The Korean tariff yielded the highest mean health utility score (0.963), followed by the Chinese (city) (0.948), US (0.943), UK (0.930) and Japanese (0.921) tariffs, but the differences in the scores of any two tariffs did not exceed the MCID. The Chinese (city) tariff showed higher ICC values (ICCs> 0.89, 95% CI:0.755-0.964) and narrower limits of agreement (0.099-0.167) than the Korean tariff [(ICCs> 0.71, 95% CI:0.451-0.955); (0.146-0.253)]. The Chinese (city) tariff had a higher relative efficiency and effect size statistics in 10 out of 11 variables as compared to the UK, US and Japanese tariffs. The Chinese (city) tariff (0.215) was associated with moderate mean absolute transition scores compared with the UK (0.342), US (0.230), Japanese (0.149) and Korean (0.189) tariffs for 1485 observed pairs of the EQ-5D-3L health states. CONCLUSIONS: Health utility scores derived from the five tariffs differed. The Chinese (city) tariff was the most suitable of these tariffs and was without obvious weakness. We recommend adopting the Chinese (city) tariff when applying EQ-5D-3L to assess quality of life among the elderly in China's agricultural region with socio-economic status similar to Hua County. Results of this study had provided a crucial basis for health surveys, health promotion projects, health intervention trials, and health economic evaluation taking HRQOL as a target in rural areas of China

Estimating cancer incidence based on claims data from medical insurance systems in two areas lacking cancer registries in China.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish a Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS) in China and evaluate the completeness and timeliness of this system through reporting cancer incidence rates using claims data in two regions in northern and southern China. METHODS: We extracted claims data from medical insurance systems in Hua County of Henan Province, and Shantou City in Guangdong Province in China from Jan 1, 2012 to Jun 30, 2019. These two regions have been considered to be high risk regions for oesophageal cancer. We developed a rigorous procedure to establish the MIS-CASS, which includes data extraction, cleaning, processing, case ascertainment, privacy protection, etc. Text-based diagnosis in conjunction with ICD-10 codes were used to determine cancer diagnosis. FINDINGS: In 2018, the overall age-standardised (Segi population) incidence rates (ASR World) of cancer in Hua County and Shantou City were 167·39/100,000 and 159·78/100,000 respectively. In both of these areas, lung cancer and breast cancer were the most common cancers in males and females respectively. Hua County is a high-risk region for oesophageal cancer (ASR World: 25·95/100,000), whereas Shantou City is not a high-risk region for oesophageal cancer (ASR World: 11·43/100,000). However, Nanao island had the highest incidence of oesophageal cancer among all districts and counties in Shantou (ASR World: 36·39/100,000). The age-standardised male-to-female ratio for oesophageal cancer was lower in Hua County than in Shantou (1·69 vs. 4·02). A six-month lag time was needed to report these cancer incidences for the MIS-CASS. INTERPRETATION: MIS-CASS efficiently reflects cancer burden in real-time, and has the potential to provide insight for improvement of cancer surveillance in China. FUNDING: The National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals (XXZ0204), the Sanming Project of Shenzhen (SZSM201612061), and the Shantou Science and Technology Bureau (190829105556145, 180918114960704)

Health-seeking behavior and barriers to treatment of patients with upper gastrointestinal cancer detected by screening in rural China: real-world evidence from the ESECC trial.

BACKGROUND: To fully realize efficacy in cancer screening, timely and appropriate treatment for participants with malignant lesions is critical. However, the health-seeking behavior of patients with upper gastrointestinal (G.I.) cancer identified in population-level screening programs in China is unknown. METHODS: A community-based real-world investigation was conducted with 136 upper G.I. cancer patients detected in a large screening cohort in an area of high-risk for upper G.I. cancer in China. Using local medical claims data and semi-structured face-to-face interview, we collected information regarding the clinical treatment regimen and factors which result in the lack of timely and appropriate treatment. FINDINGS: The treatment records for 133 upper G.I. cancer patients were acquired. Among these, 48 (36•09%) patients did not receive treatment within three months of initial diagnosis, and treatment of early-stage cancer was more likely to be delayed. Sixteen patients did not seek further diagnostic testing due to their low health-awareness and socio-economic status. Another 20 participants proactively sought further diagnostic evaluation in health care facilities but were prevented from receiving further treatment due to low sensitivity of given diagnostic test(s), failure to recognize the significance of screening results, and/or lack of basic knowledge of diagnosis and treatment for early cancer on the part of clinicians. The treatment regimen offered to patients depended largely on the level of health care facilities they visited, and non-medical factors were the main reasons for choice of health care facilities. INTERPRETATION: A coordinated, system-based management strategy is urgently needed to support the design of upper G.I. cancer screening programs in rural populations in China. FUNDING: The Charity Project of the National Ministry of Health (201202014), the National Key R & D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626)

Estimating cancer survival and prevalence with the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS): An empirical study in China.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish a new approach for surveillance of cancer prevalence and survival in China, based on the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS). METHODS: We constructed a standard procedure for data collection, cleaning, processing, linkage, verification, analysis, and estimation of cancer prevalence and survival (including both actual observations and model estimates) by conjoint use of medical insurance claims data and all-cause death surveillance data. As a proof-of-principle study, we evaluated the performance of this surveillance approach by estimating the latest prevalence and survival for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Hua County, a high-risk region for oesophageal cancer in China. FINDINGS: In Hua County, the age-standardised relative 5-year survival was 39·2% (male: 36·8%; female: 43·6%) for oesophageal cancer and 33·3% (male: 29·6%; female: 43·4%) for stomach cancer. For oesophageal cancer, better survival was observed in patients of 45-64 years compared with national average estimates, and women of <75 years had better survival than men. The 5-year prevalence rate in Hua County was 99·8/100,000 (male: 105·9/100,000; female: 93·3/100,000) for oesophageal cancer and 41·5/100,000 (male: 57·4/100,000; female: 24·5/100,000) for stomach cancer. For both of these cancers, the prevalence burden peaked at 65-79 years. The model estimates for survival and prevalence were close to the observations in real investigation, with a relative difference of less than 4·5%. INTERPRETATION: This novel approach allows accurate estimation of cancer prevalence and survival with a short delay, which has great potential for regular use in general Chinese populations, especially those not covered by cancer registries. FUNDING: The National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626), the Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund (TKYC-GW-2020), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), and the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204)

Oral microbiome and risk of malignant esophageal lesions in a high-risk area of China: A nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to prospectively evaluate the association of oral microbiome with malignant esophageal lesions and its predictive potential as a biomarker of risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within a population-based cohort with up to 8 visits of oral swab collection for each subject over an 11-year period in a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in China. The oral microbiome was evaluated with 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequencing in 428 pre-diagnostic oral specimens from 84 cases with esophageal lesions of severe squamous dysplasia and above (SDA) and 168 matched healthy controls. DESeq analysis was performed to identify taxa of differential abundance. Differential oral species together with subject characteristics were evaluated for their potential in predicting SDA risk by constructing conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 125 taxa including 37 named species showed significantly different abundance between SDA cases and controls (all P0.84. CONCLUSIONS: The oral microbiome may play an etiological and predictive role in esophageal cancer, and it holds promise as a non-invasive early warning biomarker for risk stratification for esophageal cancer screening programs

Joint analysis of three genome-wide association studies of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese populations

We conducted a joint (pooled) analysis of three genome-wide association studies (GWAS) 1-3 of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in ethnic Chinese (5,337 ESCC cases and 5,787 controls) with 9,654 ESCC cases and 10,058 controls for follow-up. In a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, study, and two eigenvectors, two new loci achieved genome-wide significance, marked by rs7447927 at 5q31.2 (per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82-0.88; P=7.72x10−20) and rs1642764 at 17p13.1 (per-allele OR= 0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91; P=3.10x10−13). rs7447927 is a synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TMEM173 and rs1642764 is an intronic SNP in ATP1B2, near TP53. Furthermore, a locus in the HLA class II region at 6p21.32 (rs35597309) achieved genome-wide significance in the two populations at highest risk for ESSC (OR=1.33, 95% CI 1.22-1.46; P=1.99x10−10). Our joint analysis identified new ESCC susceptibility loci overall as well as a new locus unique to the ESCC high risk Taihang Mountain region

Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin

The influence of ion effects on the Pd-catalyzed hydrodechlorination of 4-chlorophenol in aqueous solutions

The aim of this work was to study the influence of ions on the hydrodechlorination of 4-chlorophenol in water over 5% Pd/C catalyst. It was found that the presence of some ions such as Na(+), K(+), NH(4)(+), Ca(2)(+), Mg(2)(+), Cl , Br ,CO(3)(2-), HCO(3)(-), SO(4)(2-) and NO(3)(-) etc., did not show negative effects on catalyst activity in the hydrogenation process of 4-chlorophenol in aqueous solutions. But, when Fe(2+), Fe(3+), Cu(2+), Zn(2+), Ni(2+) and Pb(2+) etc., were present in water, they could reduce the activity of Pd/C and even led Pd/C to deactivate. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Reliability Modelling of CNC Machine Tools Based on the Improved Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

The existing standard reliability models for computerized numerical control (CNC) machine tools are not satisfactory and they fall short of predicting failure rates or lifetime of key functional parts of CNC machine tools. This is attributed to two reasons: the small sample size of failure data and a large truncated ratio of the censored failure data. Improved correction method (ICM), maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and empirical maximum likelihood estimation (EMLE) are presented and compared with each other in this study. In order to improve the shortage of reliability models developed by the traditional methods, an improved maximum likelihood estimation method (IMLE) is proposed through enlarging censored failure data. Moreover, the correction factors of mean ratio to extend censored time are designed, by which the censored failure data can be close to the true time between failures (TBF). Furthermore, a solution method of correction factors considering amount of calculation is proposed to meet the requirements of calculation precision. Finally, verification by the orthogonal experiment is simulated to verify the proposed model. The verifying test results show that the proposed method can be applied in reliability modelling for not only CNC machine tools but also the key functional parts of CNC machine tools