Determinanten der Bevölkerungsentwicklung in West- und Ostdeutschland

In der Bundesrepublik Deutschland stellt sich langfristig ein Alterungs- und Schrumpfungsprozess der Bevölkerung ein. Dabei wird die demographische Entwicklung von der Fertilität, der Mortalität sowie den Wanderungsbewegungen in unterschiedlichem Maße determiniert. Um die Art und Intensität des Einflusses der demographischen Faktoren zu analysieren, werden in der vorliegenden Simulationsstudie die einzelnen Einflussgrößen von einander abgegrenzt. Im Gegensatz zu anderen Studien steht hierbei weniger eine genauere Abschätzung des künftigen Bevölkerungsbestandes im Vordergrund. Vielmehr werden die Wirkungsweise der Einflussfaktoren, die Veränderungen in der Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung sowie die demographischen Unterschiede in West- und Ostdeutschland thematisiert. Aus der Analyse geht hervor, dass die Bevölkerungsmasse und -struktur primär durch die Fertilität und, sofern sie in entsprechend hohem Maße erfolgt, die Zuwanderung geprägt wird. Dementgegen entfaltet die weitere Verminderung der Mortalität vergleichsweise geringe Auswirkungen. Ohne beträchtliche Zuwanderung wird bei der momentan realisierten Fertilitätsrate die Überalterung der Bevölkerung fortschreiten und sich in West- und Ostdeutschland differenziert gestalten

Determinanten der Bevölkerungsentwicklung in West- und Ostdeutschland

In the long run there will be a change of the size and the structure of the german population because of mortality decline and birth rates below the reproduction level. In this projection we analyze the different effects of variations of fertility, mortality and migration flows on the population. We show, that immigration on a realistic level is not able to compensate the deficit of live births, but can alleviate the shrinking and ageing process of the german population. Without pronatalistic measures, higher than present birth rates are not expected. While, in our simulations, immigration and an increase in fertility could potentially stabilize the population size in the west, this will not occur in the eastern part of Germany. There, the net east-west migration leads to an additional population decline.

Mögliche Effekte des demographischen Wandels-Ein Überblick-

One of the more important influences shaping the future economic conditions of the highly industrialized countries is the decline and aging of their population. The article is a comprehensive survey of the impact of this development on key economic variables and the institutions of the welfare state. While the overall consequence of the aging process on productivity growth is more likely to be negative, there are also some offsetting forces like the increase in the capital intensity. The institutions of the welfare state, which are based on intergenerational transfers, will have to be reformed, in order to bring them in line with the demographic process. The prediction of a decrease in the rate of unemployment as a consequence of a declining labor force is according to our analysis not justified.

Return Migration and the 'Healthy Immigrant Effect'

According to the "healthy immigrant effect" (HIE), immigrants upon arrival are healthier than locally born residents. However, this health advantage is supposed to diminish or even disappear over a relatively short period and the immigrants' health status is converging to that of the natives. The causes for this gradient of immigrants' health are subject to an ongoing discussion and the underlying trajectories are not yet fully understood. This paper investigates whether return migration can serve as an additional explanation for the declining health of immigrants, and thus aims at shedding some light on the trajectories underlying the HIE. The data used are drawn from 13 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel. Using a random-effects probit model, this analysis explores the factors influencing re-migration by means of a sample of 4,426 migrants. In line with the existing literature, the study shows that e.g. having spouse and children in the home country, or being non-working or jobless yield a higher return probability, whereas all factors associated with attachment to Germany (e.g. language fluency, German citizenship, house ownership) reduce the probability of re-migration. Additionally, the results indicate that men reporting poorer health ('good', 'satisfactory', 'poor' or 'bad') are significantly less likely to return home relative to male immigrants who describe their health as 'very good'. However, for women, the effects are adverse to that of men, and none of the health coefficients for women is significant. Hence - at least for men - re-migration can be seen as an additional explanation for the HIE

Informationsgewinnung und Preisentwicklung: Ein mikroökonomischer Erklärungsversuch für die verzögerte Preisanpassung im Konjunkturaufschwung mit Hilfe des Mills-Modells

Information Problem and Price Development: A Mills-Model-Explanation for Lagged Adjustment of Prices in the Beginning Upswing The traditional model of monopolistic theory cannot easily be accorded to the empirical experience that in the upswing the entrepreneurs first expand their production and rise their prices only at the end of the boom. According to the author’s opinion these reactions are caused by false anticipation of demand. In the beginning of the upswing the entrepreneurs think that the higher sales be caused rather by chance than by higher demand. With the Mills-model the author demonstrates that under constant marginal production and storage costs the entrepreneurs will therefore rise production without altering prices

Zusammenhang zwischen Alterungsprozess und Einwanderung

Available from Bibliothek des Instituts fuer Weltwirtschaft, ZBW, Duesternbrook Weg 120, D-24105 Kiel W 940 (1) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman