A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities

No abstract.

The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area

No abstract.

The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area

In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimized interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area that differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioral elements, and adherence to microfoundations. Our findings are broadly consistent with results documented for models of the U.S. economy: backward-looking models require relatively more aggressive policies with, at most, moderate inertia; rules that are optimized for such models tend to perform reasonably well in forward-looking models, while the reverse is not necessarily true; and, hence, the operating characteristics of robust rules (i.e., rules that perform satisfactorily in all models) are heavily weighted towards those required by backward-looking models.macroeconomic modelling; model uncertainty; monetary policy rules; robustness; euro area

Extending the NAWM with a partial indexation mechanism linking wages and trend productivitiy

This document sets out the details for extending the wage Phillips curve of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM; cf. Christoffel, Coenen and Warne, 2008) with a partial indexation mechanism linking wages to trend productivity developments. The document first outlines the labour-market setting in which households are offering their labour services. It then derives the first-order condition characterising the optimal wage-setting decision of an individual household as well as the law of motion for the aggregate wage index. Finally, the document derives the implied log-linear wage Phillips curve. An appendix provides additional technical details of the derivations

Extending the NAWM for the import content of exports

In this document, we set out the details for extending the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM; cf. Christoffel, Coenen and Warne, 2008) with a non-zero import content of exports. We first describe the technology used by the intermediate-good firms for producing their differentiated outputs sold abroad. We then formulate the modified market clearing conditions as well as the aggregate resource constraint for the extended model. Finally, we outline the computation of the modified steady state

Extending the NAWM for the import content of exports

In this document, we set out the details for extending the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM; cf. Christoffel, Coenen and Warne, 2008) with a non-zero import content of exports. We first describe the technology used by the intermediate-good firms for producing their differentiated outputs sold abroad. We then formulate the modified market clearing conditions as well as the aggregate resource constraint for the extended model. Finally, we outline the computation of the modified steady state

Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the euro area

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of the European Central Bank’s New Area- Wide Model with a rich specification of the fiscal sector. A detailed modeling of the fiscal sector and the incorporation of as many as eight fiscal time series appear pivotal for our result

Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the euro area

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of the European Central Bank’s New Area- Wide Model with a rich specification of the fiscal sector. A detailed modeling of the fiscal sector and the incorporation of as many as eight fiscal time series appear pivotal for our result

Conditional versus unconditional forecasting with the New Area-Wide Model of the euro area

In this paper we examine conditional versus unconditional forecasting with a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the context of the macroeconomic projection exercises at the European Central Bank (ECB). We first analyse the out-of-sample forecasting properties of the estimated model from 1999 to 2005 by comparing its unconditional forecasts with those obtained from a Bayesian VAR with a steady-state prior as well as na¨ıve forecasts. Model-based forecasts that are conditioned on differing information sets are then studied and evaluated through, for instance, modesty statistics to assess the relevance of the Lucas critique. In contrast to other studies in the literature, we condition on a fairly large set of policy-relevant variables. Furthermore, we consider conditioning information that partially, albeit not fully determine the future path of the observed variables, but which restrict the channels through which they can be affected

Conditional versus unconditional forecasting with the New Area-Wide Model of the euro area

In this paper we examine conditional versus unconditional forecasting with a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the context of the macroeconomic projection exercises at the European Central Bank (ECB). We first analyse the out-of-sample forecasting properties of the estimated model from 1999 to 2005 by comparing its unconditional forecasts with those obtained from a Bayesian VAR with a steady-state prior as well as na¨ıve forecasts. Model-based forecasts that are conditioned on differing information sets are then studied and evaluated through, for instance, modesty statistics to assess the relevance of the Lucas critique. In contrast to other studies in the literature, we condition on a fairly large set of policy-relevant variables. Furthermore, we consider conditioning information that partially, albeit not fully determine the future path of the observed variables, but which restrict the channels through which they can be affected