Inter-city Variation in Prices

In this paper we have constructed a relative cost of living index for 32 cities/towns of Pakistan using latest available prices to understand the extent of current differences in cost of living across cities and also to compare changes in relative cost of living since 1999 [Pasha and Pasha (2002)]. The index values reveal significant differences in cost of living across Pakistan and especially across provinces with prices significantly higher in Balochistan (overall) and NWFP (for wheat). When regressed against various explanatory variables, the variation in cost of living appears to be determined by the population in cubic form (reaching a minimum for a city size of 2.1 million) and the provincial affiliation of cities. The index also reveals that relative to 1999, the economy as a whole appears to have become less integrated as the difference in prices across cities is much greater than in 1999. However, cities in Sindh due to their close proximity to the port have become less expensive because of the increased share of imports in consumption. The findings of this paper have very important implications for public policy with respect to transfer payments to relieve poverty, urban development, inter-provincial trade and transport and allocation of development funds among provinces.Regional Economics Measurement, Regional Economic Activity, Growth, Development, and Changes

What is Hidden, in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues and Implications

There is a worldwide contemporary debate about the role of the hidden economy in achieving the goal of sustained and inclusive economic growth and development, especially in the context of its spillover effects on the formal economy. For this purpose, policy makers and academicians have made concerted efforts to estimate the size of the hidden economy and to analyze its causes, issues and implications on key macroeconomic variables. However, there is a consensus among the policy makers that a better macroeconomic policy formulation and its true implementation are subject to the proper management of the associated issues of the hidden economy with suitable policy measures. In Pakistan, it is generally assumed that the hidden economy contributes about 30% to 50% to the overall GDP. The purpose of this paper is to estimate more precisely the size of the hidden economy with the determination of its potential causes and implications. Five statistical and structural modeling approaches namely; simple monetary approach, modified monetary approach using dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), multiple-indicators multiple-causes (MIMIC) approach, electricity consumption approach and labor market survey based approach are used to estimate the size of the hidden economy and to analyze the characteristic nature of its growth over the period. The study also investigates the potential determinants of the hidden economy and various interrelated socio-economic issues in perspective of achieving national goal of inclusive growth and development. Finally, policy implications are provided consistent with pervading facts of the hidden economy in Pakistan especially in the context of the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award.Hidden Economy, Size, Causes, Socio-Economic Implications, Inclusive Growth and Development, 18th Amendment and 7th NFC Award of Pakistan

Inter-city Variation in Prices

This research has been motivated by the fact that inter-city variation in prices and hence cost of living has implications for many aspects of development and public policy. This is true for all countries and especially for developing countries like Pakistan where one would expect differences in cost of living to be more pronounced (ceterus paribus) due to a relatively underdeveloped transport network and a lack of development of a national common market. A better understanding of the inter-city variation in prices indicates the extent to which markets within countries are integrated. A monitoring of the inter-city price index over time indicates whether the economy as a whole has become more or less integrated over time i.e. has there has been convergence or divergence within the local economy (which has also been one of the objectives of this research). Secondly, a quantification of inter-city variation in cost of living is essential to understand differentials in real incomes across the country. Such an understanding will yield fairer minimum wage legislation by the government and also wage remuneration packages by employers in both the public and private sectors operating in multiple cities thus leading to better equalisation of real wages across locations. As noted by Haworth and Rasmussen (1973) the pursuit of a uniform wage policy by the U.S. Post Office in the 1970s led to greater wage dissatisfaction among workers and labor strikes in areas where cost of living was relatively higher. Thirdly, allowing for cost of living differentials among cities will lead to better estimates of urban inequality and incidence of poverty. In this context it is particularly important to see if differences in cost of living mitigate or accentuate the difference in the magnitude of poverty between richer and poor jurisdictions. The estimation of cost of living differentials will also lead to much greater understanding of migration patterns within countries and the functioning of regional and interregional markets across the country which are directly related to cost of living, and real wages/incomes. For example, if the same minimum wage legislation is applicable to the whole country, it will lead to migration to those cities where cost of living is relative low and hence the real value of the minimum wages is high (ceterus paribus). This illustrates the important implications that uniform minimum wage legislation and welfare packages across the country have for migration patterns when cost of living differentials are significant

Impact of COVID-19 on Disaggregate Consumption and Online Retail Sales: Evidence from the USA

This study applies the difference-in-difference technique to analyze the consumption pattern during COVID-19 against pre-COVID-19 years. We analyze the online retail sales before and after COVID-19 using time series and linear regression models. Time series intervention analysis results suggest that COVID-19 has caused a statistically significant change in the mean level of online retail sales share in e-commerce. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find a 4% decrease in aggregate consumption from March to December 2020 compared to the benchmark period although statistically insignificant. Further, using a fixed effects model with time dummies, we find a nearly 8% significant decrease in March–April and a 2% decrease in May–June, which is not significant maybe because the lockdown restrictions were lifted during that time. We infer that the aggregate consumption decreased during the strictest months of lockdown and COVID-19 had a heterogeneous impact across categories of consumption

Understanding Business Cycle Fluctuations in Pakistan

Notwithstanding the level of improvement in understanding the complexities of an economy, it is now well accepted that the ultimate incidence of various policy interventions leads to varied outcomes in terms of magnitude and persistence depending upon the structure of the economy. The objective of the present study is to disentangle the relative contributions of various exogenous and domestic shocks that contribute to business cycle fluctuations in Pakistan. The study is based on the New-Keynesian Open economy model, which is an extended version of (Gali & Monacili 2005). Keating’s two-step approach (1990, 2000) is employed to capture the dynamic behaviour of the variables of interest. Impulse response functions, along with forecast error variance decomposition analyses, are used to gain useful insights into the understanding of the transmission mechanism of policy and non-policy shocks. It is observed that fiscal policy does matter, at least in the short-run. The interest rate shock leads to the exchange rate appreciation thereby confirming the exchange rate puzzle. In response to adverse supply shocks, the Monetary Authority responds with a monetary contraction that prolongs the recessionary periods. Furthermore, it has a limited power to control inflation as inflation in Pakistan stems from supply-side factors as well as fiscal dominance. JEL Classification: C32, E52, E62, F41 Keywords: Open Economy, New Keynesian Model, Rational Expectations, Exchange Rate Puzzl

What is Hidden, in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications

The informal economy is initially considered as the subsidiary sector in terms of its contribution to the overall economy. However, it received the focus of attention with the publication of Peter Guttmann’s estimates for sizing the informal economy (i.e. US $ 200 billion in 1976) for the US economy especially in the context of achieving the goal of inclusive growth and development. The informal economy is recognised with different names in different countries/regions throughout the world. For example, the Swedish and Russian term it as ―Hidden Economy‖, the English call it ―Fiddle‖, the Japanese recognise it as ―Hidden Incomes‖, the French identify it as ―Travail au noir‖, the Italian consider it as ―The Lavorno Nero‖, while in Pakistan it has been analysed as an ―Hidden Economy‖ or ―Informal Economy‖

Assessing the Effects of School Support Facilities on Academic Achievement at Punjab Education Foundation Partner Schools

School supporting facilities provides a base for quality teaching and learning. The objective of this article was to assess the effect of school support facilities at Punjab Education Foundation partner schools on academic achievement. The present study was descriptive in nature; survey approach was used for data collection. Study was delimited to Punjab province. The sample of the study was comprised of 146 Principals from Sahiwal division of Punjab chosen through multi-stage random sampling technique. A Check List for School Support Facilities (CLSSF) consisted of 28 items was self developed, validated before actual survey. The survey data was analyzed by running multiple regression statistics. The dependent variable academic achievement assessed from the academic marks of students obtained in 2017 Punjab Examination Commission of Punjab. The findings of the study showed that school support facilities like tablet, I.T Lab, ventilation, first aid medical box, gas, store room, ECE/kids room, staff room and library contributed about 15.8% towards academic achievement at Punjab Education Foundation partner schools significantly. The Punjab Education Foundation may provide support facilities to their partner schools for the academic promotion

Drivers of Entrepreneurship: Linking With Economic Growth and Employment Generation (A Panel Data Analysis)

The need for entrepreneurs for economic development has always been crucial in history because they are the leaders who invent innovative ideas that give spark to economic activities. They are responsible for the combination of factors of production by capital formation, creating employment opportunities, wealth distribution that facilitates development and growth. A well explained definition of entrepreneurship in the words of Wennekers and Thurik (1999) that successfully makes the functional roles of entrepreneurs is: “…the manifest ability and willingness of individuals, on their own, in teams within and outside existing organisations, to perceive and create new economic opportunities (new products, new production methods, new organisational schemes and new product-market combinations) and to introduce their ideas in the market, in the face of uncertainty and other obstacles, by making decisions on location, form and the use of resources and institutions.” (46–47) High and sustained economic growth is the fundamental objective of every developed or developing country’s governmental policy. Economic growth is a long term expansion of the productive potential of the economy. It generates employment in the economy and raises the living standards of the nation. Economic growth promotes business activities in private sector, increases company profits and enhances investor confidence

Study of Effects of ICT on Professional Development of Teachers at University Level

Information and communication technology (ICT) has brought revolutionary changes to enhance professional development of teachers. At present several ICT related instructional devices like computers, smart phones, laptops, tablets, LCD, multimedia and projectors are used in classrooms for making more attractive and productive teaching and learning process. The objectives of the study were to explore perceptions of teachers regarding use of information communication technology and to find out the effects of ICT for improving teachers’ professional development at university level. The study was descriptive type survey in nature. Simple random sampling technique was adopted for sample selection. All public and private educational institutions providing higher education of central Punjab were the population of the study. The sample of the study comprised of 90 faculty members, 120 students and 12 heads of different departments were selected on random basis. A self-developed questionnaire for faculty members, students and structured interview schedule for heads of departments were administered for collection of desired information. Data analysis was carried out by using percentage, mean score and standard deviation. The results of the study revealed that ICT has positive effects on enhancing professional development of teachers. It was found that university teachers were facing many difficulties in preparing their lectures with technological innovations and utilization of ICT in classrooms. The study recommended that ICT related refresher courses may be organized to improve professional development of academician

FORMULATION AND EVALUATION OF ORAL SUSTAINED IN SITU GELLING SYSTEM OF ROXATIDINE

Gel dosage forms are successfully used as drug delivery systems to control drug release and protect the medicaments from a hostile environment. The main objective of this present work is to formulate and evaluate in situ gels of roxatidine for the treatment of peptic ulcer. This system utilizes polymers that exhibit sol-to-gel phase transition due to change in specific physico-chemical parameters. In the present work in situ gels have been developed by using gellan gum and sodium alginate based on the concept of ion activated systems. Sol-to-gel transformation occurred in the presence of monovalent/divalent cations. Formulations were evaluated for clarity, drug content, in vitro gelling capacity, determination of pH, in situ release study, viscosity, gel strength, ex vivo gelation and stability study. All the results found to be satisfactory. Experimental part showed that viscosity of sols and gel strength was increased with increase in the concentration of polymers, also drug release gets sustaining. The formulations were therapeutically efficacious, sterile and provided sustained release of the drug over a period of time. These results demonstrated that the developed system is an alternative to conventional drug delivery systems and can improve patient compliance.Key words: In situ gels, Roxatidine, Peptic ulcer