INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY RATES OF STROKES IN KAZAKHSTAN IN 2014–2019

There is a lack of information on the epidemiology of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in developing countries. This research presents incidence and mortality rates of stroke patients based on hospital admission and discharge status in one of the Central Asian countries by analysis of large-scale healthcare data. The registry data of 177,947 patients admitted to the hospital with the diagnosis of stroke between 2014 and 2019 were extracted from the National Electronic Health System of Kazakhstan. We provide descriptive statistics and analyze the association of socio-demographic and medical characteristics such as comorbidities and surgical treatments. Among all stroke patients, the incidence rate based on hospital admission of AIS was significantly higher compared to SAH and ICH patients. In 5 year follow-up period, AIS patients had a better outcome than SAH and ICH patients (64.7, 63.1 and 57.3% respectively). The hazard ratio (HR) after the trepanation and decompression surgery was 2.3 and 1.48 for AIS and SAH patients; however, it was protective for ICH (HR = 0.87). The investigation evaluated an increase in the all-cause mortality rates based on the discharge status of stroke patients, while the incidence rate decreased over time

The Regional Burden and Disability-Adjusted Life Years of Knee Osteoarthritis in Kazakhstan 2014–2020

A Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study reported that 9.6 million years lived with disability (YLDs) were lost due to hip and knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in 2017. Although the GBD study presents the disease burden at the global level, there is no information on any Central Asian country. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of knee osteoarthritis in Kazakhstan. The data of 56,895 people with KOA between 2014–2020 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System of Kazakhstan and retrospectively analyzed. The majority of the cohort (76%) were women, of Kazakh ethnicity (66%), and older than 50 years of age (87%). The risk of gonarthrosis escalated for women after 50 years and peaked at 75 years with a rate of 3062 females admitted to hospital per 100,000 women in the population. This observation is approximately three times higher than for men of the same age group. A geographical analysis showed that the Jambyl oblast, West Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, and the Akmola oblast have the highest burden of disease. During the observation period, 127,077 age-adjusted YLDs were lost due to knee osteoarthritis. This is the first study in Kazakhstan to investigate the burden of knee osteoarthritis. This research recognizes age and sex-based differences, and regional disparities in the incidence of knee osteoarthritis. This knowledge can lead to the development of more specific diagnostic approaches and gender-personalized therapy protocols for patients

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION IN KAZAKHSTAN: DATA FROM UNIFIED NATIONWIDE ELECTRONIC HEALTHCARE SYSTEM 2014–2019

The in-depth epidemiology of hypertension has not been studied in Kazakhstan (KZ) yet. We aimed to investigate the crude; age and sex standardized prevalence, incidence, and all-cause mortality rate among hypertensive patients in Kazakhstan using a large-scale Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) for the period 2014–2019. Hypertension was defined based on the ICD-10 codes (ICD-code: I10; I11; I12; I13). Of 1,908,419 patients, 1,186,706 (62.18%) were females and 721,713 (37.82%) were males. The majority of the patients (56.3%) were ethnic Kazakhs, 26.6% were Russians, and 16.2% were of other ethnicities. In 2014, the crude rates of prevalence, incidence, and mortality were 3661, 1396.1, and 33.1 per 100,000 population, respectively. The overall prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates among hypertension patients had a gradual increase over the period 2014–2019. The sex and age adjusted rates demonstrate the same trend throughout the entire period. We observed 71% higher risk of crude death in males comparing to females (Hazard ratio (HR): 1.71 [95%CI: 1.69–1.72]); Russian and other ethnicities had 1.56-fold (95%CI: 1.54–1.58 and 1.43-fold (95%CI: 1.41–1.45) higher risk of all-cause death compared to Kazakhs, and the elderly group had the highest risk of death (Hazard ratio (HR): 35.68 [95%CI: 28.11–45.31]) comparing to the younger generation, which remained significant after adjustment to age and sex. Overall, these findings show statistically significant lower survival probability in male patients compared to female, in older patients compared to younger ones, and in patients of Russian and other ethnicities compared to Kazakh

Predicting 1-year mortality of patients with diabetes mellitus in Kazakhstan based on administrative health data using machine learning

Abstract Diabetes mellitus (DM) affects the quality of life and leads to disability, high morbidity, and premature mortality. DM is a risk factor for cardiovascular, neurological, and renal diseases, and places a major burden on healthcare systems globally. Predicting the one-year mortality of patients with DM can considerably help clinicians tailor treatments to patients at risk. In this study, we aimed to show the feasibility of predicting the one-year mortality of DM patients based on administrative health data. We use clinical data for 472,950 patients that were admitted to hospitals across Kazakhstan between mid-2014 to December 2019 and were diagnosed with DM. The data was divided into four yearly-specific cohorts (2016-, 2017-, 2018-, and 2019-cohorts) to predict mortality within a specific year based on clinical and demographic information collected up to the end of the preceding year. We then develop a comprehensive machine learning platform to construct a predictive model of one-year mortality for each year-specific cohort. In particular, the study implements and compares the performance of nine classification rules for predicting the one-year mortality of DM patients. The results show that gradient-boosting ensemble learning methods perform better than other algorithms across all year-specific cohorts while achieving an area under the curve (AUC) between 0.78 and 0.80 on independent test sets. The feature importance analysis conducted by calculating SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values shows that age, duration of diabetes, hypertension, and sex are the top four most important features for predicting one-year mortality. In conclusion, the results show that it is possible to use machine learning to build accurate predictive models of one-year mortality for DM patients based on administrative health data. In the future, integrating this information with laboratory data or patients’ medical history could potentially boost the performance of the predictive models

The Prevalence, Indications, Outcomes of the Most Common Major Gynecological Surgeries in Kazakhstan and Recommendations for Potential Improvements into Public Health and Clinical Practice : Analysis of the National Electronic Healthcare System (2014–2019)

Objectives: Major gynecological surgeries are indicated for the treatment of female genital pathologies. It is key to examine trends in gynecologic surgical procedures and updated recommendations by international gynecological societies to find opportunities for improvement of local guidelines. To date, a very limited number of reports have been published on the epidemiology of gynecological surgeries in Kazakhstan. Moreover, some local guidelines for gynecological conditions do not comply with the international recommendations. Thus, this study aims to investigate the prevalence, indications, and outcomes of the most common major gynecological surgeries by analyzing large-scale Kazakhstani healthcare data, and identifying possible opportunities for improvement of the local public health and clinical practice. Methods: A descriptive, population-based study among women who underwent a gynecological surgery in healthcare settings across the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of 2014–2019 was performed. Data were collected from the Unified Nationwide Electronic Health System (UNEHS). Results: In total, 80,401 surgery cases were identified and analyzed in the UNEHS database for a period of 6 years (2014–2019). The median age of the participants was 40 years old, with 61.1% in reproductive age. The most prevalent intervention was a unilateral salpingectomy—29.4%, with 72.6% patients aged between 18–34 years. The proportion of different types of hysterectomies was 49.4%. In 20% of cases, subtotal abdominal hysterectomy was performed due to uterine leiomyoma. The proportion of laparoscopic procedures in Kazakhstani gynecological practice is as low—11.59%. Conclusions: The Kazakhstani public health and gynecological care sector should reinforce implementation of contemporary treatment methods and up-to-date policies and guidelines. The overall trends in surgical procedures performed for gynecological pathologies, including uterine leiomyoma and ectopic pregnancy treatment, should be changed in favor of the minimally invasive methods in order to adopt a fertility-sparing approach.Medicine, Faculty ofNon UBCObstetrics and Gynaecology, Department ofReviewedFacultyResearcherGraduat

Epidemiology of tuberculosis in Kazakhstan: data from the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System 2014–2019

Objectives This study aims to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence, mortality rates and survival HRs in Kazakhstan, using large-scale administrative health data records during 2014–2019.Design A retrospective cohort study.Settings Data for patients with TB in Kazakhstan during 2014–2019, reported in the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System.Participants Patients with TB in Kazakhstan (ICD-10 (The International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision) codes: A15–A19).Outcome measures Demographic factors, diagnoses and comorbidities were analysed using descriptive, bivariate and multivariable statistical analyses. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated, and Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed to assess risk factors for survival rates.Results Of the 149 122 patients with TB, 91 437 (61%) were males, and 139 931 (94%) had respiratory TB. From 2014 to 2019, TB incidence declined from 227 to 15.2 per 100 000 individuals, while all-cause mortality increased from 8.4 to 15.2 per 100 000. Age-specific TB incidence was lowest for 0–10 years of age and highest for 20 years of age. Being older, man, urban residence versus rural, retired versus employed, having HIV and having diabetes versus no comorbidities were associated with lower survival rates.Conclusion To date, this is the largest TB published study for Kazakhstan, characterising TB incidence and mortality trends by demographic factors, and risk factors for survival rates. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to address the growing burden of TB, particularly among older adults, men, urban residents and those with HIV and diabetes. The study underscores the importance of using administrative health data to inform policy and health system responses to TB in Kazakhstan

Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030

AbstractAccording to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan’s central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan

Data_Sheet_1_Epidemiological characteristics and climatic variability of viral meningitis in Kazakhstan, 2014–2019.pdf

BackgroundThe comprehensive epidemiology and impact of climate on viral meningitis (VM) in Kazakhstan are unknown. We aimed to study the incidence, in-hospital mortality and influence of climatic indicators on VM from 2014 to 2019.MethodsNationwide electronic healthcare records were used to explore this study. ICD-10 codes of VM, demographics, and hospital outcomes were evaluated using descriptive statistics and survival analysis.ResultsDuring the 2014–2019 period, 10,251 patients with VM were admitted to the hospital. 51.35% of them were children, 57.85% were males, and 85.9% were from the urban population. Enteroviral meningitis was the main cause of VM in children. The incidence rate was 13 and 18 cases per 100,000 population in 2014 and 2019, respectively. Case fatality rate was higher in 2015 (2.3%) and 2017 (2.0%). The regression model showed 1°C increment in the daily average temperature might be associated with a 1.05-fold (95% CI 1.047–1.051) increase in the daily rate of VM cases, 1hPa increment in the average air pressure and 1% increment in the daily average humidity might contribute to a decrease in the daily rate of VM cases with IRRs of 0.997 (95% CI 0.995–0.998) and 0.982 (95% CI 0.981–0.983), respectively. In-hospital mortality was 35% higher in males compared to females. Patients residing in rural locations had a 2-fold higher risk of in-hospital death, compared to city residents. Elderly patients had a 14-fold higher risk of in-hospital mortality, compared to younger patients.ConclusionThis is the first study in Kazakhstan investigating the epidemiology and impact of climate on VM using nationwide healthcare data. There was a tendency to decrease the incidence with outbreaks every 5 years, and mortality rates were higher for Russians and other ethnicities compared to Kazakhs, for males compared to females, for elder patients compared to younger patients, and for patients living in rural areas compared to city residents. The climatic parameters and the days of delay indicated a moderate interaction with the VM cases.</p

Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014–2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan’s central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.</p