The unlikely president

In this paper we use surveyed data to understand Bolsonaro’s electorate and, in doing so, we discuss significant interpretations about the conditions to the rise of populist politicians. In the first section, we present and discuss macro interpretations that resort either to socioeconomic or political culture processes in order to explain populism. In the second part, we describe, briefly, Jair Bolsonaro’s political career and show why he is an authentic member of the populist family. In the third and fourth sections, we present survey data on Bolsonaro’s voters, their socioeconomic features, and their beliefs regarding political regimes and democratic institutions, and contending moral issues. We argue that data show that the president social bases are not those the current literature relates to populist leaders and that their attitudes towards politics and moral issues do not differ significantly from those found among supporters of other candidates running for the presidency in 2018. In the conclusions, we suggest some alternative explanations to Bolsonaro’s unexpected electoral success.En este artículo utilizamos datos de encuestas para comprender el electorado de Bolsonaro y, al hacerlo, discutimos interpretaciones significativas sobre las condiciones del surgimiento de los políticos populistas. En la primera sección, presentamos y discutimos interpretaciones macro que recurren a procesos de cultura política o socioeconómica para explicar el populismo. En la segunda parte, describimos brevemente la carrera política de Jair Bolsonaro y mostramos por qué es un miembro auténtico de la familia populista. En las secciones tercera y cuarta, presentamos datos de encuestas sobre los votantes de Bolsonaro, sus características socioeconómicas y sus creencias con respecto a los regímenes políticos y las instituciones democráticas, y las cuestiones morales en conflicto. Argumentamos que los datos muestran que las bases sociales del presidente no son las que la literatura actual relaciona con los líderes populistas y que sus actitudes hacia la política y las cuestiones morales no difieren significativamente de las que se encuentran entre los partidarios de otros candidatos que se postulan para la presidencia en 2018. conclusiones, sugerimos algunas explicaciones alternativas al inesperado éxito electoral de Bolsonaro

The power of party - a study about the organization of brazilian parties and their impcat in the election coordination

A presente pesquisa tem por objetivo preencher algumas lacunas nos estudos sobre a arena eleitoral brasileira. A literatura corrente, ao negligenciar o estudo da organização partidária, acaba por negligenciar questões fundamentais para que se entenda como funciona o processo eleitoral. Neste estudo iremos responder a três questões: Como os partidos brasileiros funcionam? O que explica o número de partidos em nosso sistema partidário? Qual o impacto da organização partidária na decisão de um partido de lançar ou não um candidato em determinada eleição? Pretendemos mostrar que os partidos têm mais vida do que julga grande parte dos estudos sobre nosso sistema político. Essa vida partidária ajuda a entender melhor a coordenação eleitoral que, por sua vez, determina o número de partidos que participam de determinada eleição.The present research aims to bridge a gap in the studies of the Brazilian electoral arena. The current literature has neglected the study of party organizations and, for that reason, has neglected fundamental questions to understand how the electoral process works. In the present study we will try to answer to three questions: How do Brazilian parties work? What explains the number of parties in our party system? How does party organization impact on the decision of parties to enter or not the electoral contests? We will show that parties have more life than is supposed by much of the studies about our political system. This party life helps us to better understand the electoral coordination, responsible for the actual number of parties in a given election

Replication Data for: Comments on When statistical significance is not significant?

Replication Data for: "Comments on When statistical significance is not significant?" as published in BPSR, vol. 8, nº 2, 201