Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separatel

Mortality Risk Associated with Short-Term Exposure to Traffic Particles and Sulfates

BACKGROUND: Many studies have shown that airborne particles are associated with increased risk of death, but attention has more recently focused on the differential toxicity of particles from different sources. Geographic information system (GIS) approaches have recently been used to improve exposure assessment, particularly for traffic particles, but only for long-term exposure. OBJECTIVES: We analyzed approximately 100,000 deaths from all, cardiovascular, and respiratory causes for the years 1995–2002 using a case–crossover analysis. METHODS: Estimates of exposure to traffic particles were geocoded to the address of each decedent on the day before death and control days, with these estimates derived from a GIS-based exposure model incorporating deterministic covariates, such as traffic density and meteorologic factors, and a smooth function of latitude and longitude. RESULTS: We estimate that an IQR increase in traffic particle exposure on the day before death is associated with a 2.3% increase [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2 to 3.4%] in all-cause mortality risk. Stroke deaths were particularly elevated (4.4%; 95% CI, −0.2 to 9.3%), as were diabetes deaths (5.7%; 95% CI, −1.7 to 13.7%). Sulfate particles are spatially homogeneous, and using a central monitor, we found that an IQR increase in sulfate levels on the day before death is associated with a 1.1% (95% CI, 0.1 to 2.0%) increase in all-cause mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Both traffic and powerplant particles are associated with increased deaths in Boston, with larger effects for traffic particles

Medium-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Markers of Inflammation and Endothelial Function

Bac k g r o u n d: Exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) contributes to increased cardiovascular risk. Land-use regression models can improve exposure assessment for TRAP. Objectives: We examined the association between medium-term concentrations of black carbon (BC) estimated by land-use regression and levels of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1) and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1), both markers of inflammatory and endothelial response. Me t h o d s: We studied 642 elderly men participating in the Veterans Administration (VA) Normative Aging Study with repeated measurements of sICAM‑1 and sVCAM‑1 during 1999–2008. Daily estimates of BC exposure at each geocoded participant address were derived using a validated spatiotemporal model and averaged to form 4-, 8-, and 12-week exposures. We used linear mixed models to estimate associations, controlling for confounders. We examined effect modification by statin use, obesity, and diabetes. Re s u l t s: We found statistically significant positive associations between BC and sICAM‑1 for averages of 4, 8, and 12 weeks. An interquartile-range increase in 8-week BC exposure (0.30 μg/m3) was associated with a 1.58 % increase in sICAM‑1 (95 % confidence interval, 0.18–3.00%). Overall association

Long-term Exposure to Black Carbon and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness: The Normative Aging Study

Background: Evidence suggests that air pollution is associated with atherosclerosis and that traffic-related particles are a particularly important contributor to the association. Objectives: We investigated the association between long-term exposure to black carbon, a correlate of traffic particles, and intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery (CIMT) in elderly men residing in the greater Boston, Massachusetts, area. Methods: We estimated 1-year average exposures to black carbon at the home addresses of Normative Aging Study participants before their first CIMT measurement. The association between estimated black carbon levels and CIMT was estimated using mixed effects models to account for repeated outcome measures. In secondary analyses, we examined whether living close to a major road or average daily traffic within 100 m of residence was associated with CIMT. Results: There were 380 participants (97% self-reported white race) with an initial visit between 2004 and 2008. Two or three follow-up CIMT measurements 1.5 years apart were available for 340 (89%) and 260 (68%) men, respectively. At first examination, the average ± SD age was 76 ± 6.4 years and the mean ± SD CIMT was 0.99 ± 0.18 mm. A one-interquartile range increase in 1-year average black carbon (0.26 µg/m3) was associated with a 1.1% higher CIMT (95% CI: 0.4, 1.7%) based on a fully adjusted model. Conclusions: Annual mean black carbon concentration based on spatially resolved exposure estimates was associated with CIMT in a population of elderly men. These findings support an association between long-term air pollution exposure and atherosclerosis. Citation: Wilker EH, Mittleman MA, Coull BA, Gryparis A, Bots ML, Schwartz J, Sparrow D. 2013. Long-term exposure to black carbon and carotid intima-media thickness: the Normative Aging Study. Environ Health Perspect 121:1061–1067; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104845 [Online 2 July 2013

Association between Traffic-Related Black Carbon Exposure and Lung Function among Urban Women

Background: Although a number of studies have documented the relationship between lung function and traffic-related pollution among children, few have focused on adult lung function or examined community-based populations. Objective: We examined the relationship between black carbon (BC), a surrogate of traffic-related particles, and lung function among women in the Maternal–Infant Smoking Study of East Boston, an urban cohort in Boston, Massachusetts. Methods: We estimated local BC levels using a validated spatiotemporal land-use regression model, derived using ambient and indoor monitor data. We examined associations between percent predicted pulmonary function and predicted BC using linear regression, adjusting for sociodemographics (individual and neighborhood levels), smoking status, occupational exposure, type of cooking fuel, and a diagnosis of asthma or chronic bronchitis. Results: The sample of 272 women 18–42 years of age included 57% who self-identified as Hispanic versus 43% white, and 18% who were current smokers. Mean ± SD predicted annual BC exposure level was 0.62 ± 0.2 μg/m3. In adjusted analysis, BC (per interquartile range increase) was associated with a 1.1% decrease [95% confidence interval (CI), −2.5% to 0.3%] in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec, a 0.6% decrease (95% CI, −1.9% to 0.6%) in forced vital capacity, and a 3.0% decrease (95% CI, −5.8% to −0.2%) in forced mid-expiratory flow rate. We noted differential effects by smoking status in that former smokers were most affected by BC exposure, whereas current smokers were not affected. Conclusion: In this cohort, exposure to traffic-related BC, a component of particulate matter, independently predicted decreased lung function in urban women, when adjusting for tobacco smoke, asthma diagnosis, and socioeconomic status

Residential Black Carbon Exposure and Circulating Markers of Systemic Inflammation in Elderly Males: The Normative Aging Study

Background: Traffic-related particles (TRPs) are associated with adverse cardiovascular events. The exact mechanisms are unclear, but systemic inflammatory responses likely play a role

Association between long-term exposure to traffic particles and blood pressure in the Veterans Administration Normative Aging Study

Particulate air pollution is associated with cardiovascular events, but the mechanisms are not fully understood. The main objective was to assess the relationship between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and blood pressure (BP)

Ambient Air Pollution and Depressive Symptoms in Older Adults: Results from the MOBILIZE Boston Study

Background: Exposure to ambient air pollution, particularly from traffic, has been associated with adverse cognitive outcomes, but the association with depressive symptoms remains unclear. Objectives: We investigated the association between exposure to ambient air and traffic pollution and the presence of depressive symptoms among 732 Boston-area adults ≥ 65 years of age (78.1 ± 5.5 years, mean ± SD). Methods: We assessed depressive symptoms during home interviews using the Revised Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CESD-R). We estimated residential distance to the nearest major roadway as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic pollution and assessed short-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sulfates, black carbon (BC), ultrafine particles, and gaseous pollutants, averaged over the 2 weeks preceding each assessment. We used generalized estimating equations to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of a CESD-R score ≥ 16 associated with exposure, adjusting for potential confounders. In sensitivity analyses, we considered CESD-R score as a continuous outcome and mean annual residential BC as an alternate marker of long-term exposure to traffic pollution. Results: We found no evidence of a positive association between depressive symptoms and long-term exposure to traffic pollution or short-term changes in pollutant levels. For example, we found an OR of CESD-R score ≥ 16 of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.46, 0.98) per interquartile range (3.4 μg/m3) increase in PM2.5 over the 2 weeks preceding assessment. Conclusions: We found no evidence suggesting that ambient air pollution is associated with depressive symptoms among older adults living in a metropolitan area in attainment of current U.S. regulatory standards. Citation: Wang Y, Eliot MN, Koutrakis P, Gryparis A, Schwartz JD, Coull BA, Mittleman MA, Milberg WP, Lipsitz LA, Wellenius GA. 2014. Ambient air pollution and depressive symptoms in older adults: results from the MOBILIZE Boston Study. Environ Health Perspect 122:553–558; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.120590

The temporal pattern of respiratory and heart disease mortality in response to air pollution.

Short-term changes in ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters < 10 micro m (PM10) have been associated with short-term fluctuations in mortality or morbidity in many studies. In this study, we tested whether those deaths are just advanced by a few days or weeks using a multicity hierarchical modeling approach for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular deaths, for all ages and stratifying by age groups, within the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) project. We fit a Poisson regression and used an unconstrained distributed lag to model the effect of PM10 exposure on deaths up to 40 days after the exposure. In baseline models using PM10 the day of and day before the death, we found that the overall PM10 effect (per 10 micro g/m3) was 0.74% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), -0.17 to 1.66] for respiratory deaths and 0.69% (95% CI, 0.31-1.08) for cardiovascular deaths. In unrestricted distributed lag models, the effect estimates increased to 4.2% (95% CI, 1.08-7.42) for respiratory deaths and to 1.97% (95% CI, 1.38-2.55) for cardiovascular deaths. Our study confirms that most of the effect of air pollution is not simply advanced by a few weeks and that effects persist for more than a month after exposure. The effect size estimate for PM10 doubles when we considered longer-term effects for all deaths and for cardiovascular deaths and becomes five times higher for respiratory deaths. We found similar effects when stratifying by age groups. These larger effects are important for risk assessment

Prenatal and Childhood Traffic-Related Pollution Exposure and Childhood Cognition in the Project Viva Cohort (Massachusetts, USA)

Background: Influences of prenatal and early-life exposures to air pollution on cognition are not well understood. Objectives: We examined associations of gestational and childhood exposure to traffic-related pollution with childhood cognition. Methods: We studied 1,109 mother–child pairs in Project Viva, a prospective birth cohort study in eastern Massachusetts (USA). In mid-childhood (mean age, 8.0 years), we measured verbal and nonverbal intelligence, visual motor abilities, and visual memory. For periods in late pregnancy and childhood, we estimated spatially and temporally resolved black carbon (BC) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures, residential proximity to major roadways, and near-residence traffic density. We used linear regression models to examine associations of exposures with cognitive assessment scores, adjusted for potential confounders. Results: Compared with children living ≥ 200 m from a major roadway at birth, those living < 50 m away had lower nonverbal IQ [–7.5 points; 95% confidence interval (CI): –13.1, –1.9], and somewhat lower verbal IQ (–3.8 points; 95% CI: –8.2, 0.6) and visual motor abilities (–5.3 points; 95% CI: –11.0, 0.4). Cross-sectional associations of major roadway proximity and cognition at mid-childhood were weaker. Prenatal and childhood exposure to traffic density and PM2.5 did not appear to be associated with poorer cognitive performance. Third-trimester and childhood BC exposures were associated with lower verbal IQ in minimally adjusted models; but after adjustment for socioeconomic covariates, associations were attenuated or reversed. Conclusions: Residential proximity to major roadways during gestation and early life may affect cognitive development. Influences of pollutants and socioeconomic conditions on cognition may be difficult to disentangle. Citation Harris MH, Gold DR, Rifas-Shiman SL, Melly SJ, Zanobetti A, Coull BA, Schwartz JD, Gryparis A, Kloog I, Koutrakis P, Bellinger DC, White RF, Sagiv SK, Oken E. 2015. Prenatal and childhood traffic-related pollution exposure and childhood cognition in the Project Viva cohort (Massachusetts, USA). Environ Health Perspect 123:1072–1078; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.140880