Regulatory Tailoring, Reliability, and Price Volatility with Stochastic Breakdowns

Although real-world energy supply systems are subject to stochastic failures, the impacts of proposed regulations affecting these systems have typically been evaluated using non-stochastic models. This paper develops an energy market model that explicitly allows for stochastic failures and demonstrates they play an important, or even dominant, role in determining the market impacts of environmental regulations that tailor product specifications to address local or regional conditions, such as fuel-formulation requirements specific to certain regional markets within the United States. While traditional non-stochastic analyses view the tailoring of regulatory requirements by location as an efficiency-enhancing alternative to a -one size fits all- regulatory approach, they fail to consider the adverse impact on reliability in all market segments resulting from the loss of product fungibility due to tailoring. We show that regulatory impact estimates developed without explicit consideration of reliability considerations may be highly inaccurate

Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States

This study uses a three-step approach to estimate the impact of global warming on U.S. energy expenditures for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings. First, average results from six different global circulation models are used to estimate the change in heating and cooling degree days in five U.S. climate zones associated with a 10 centigrade (C) global warming. Second, the change in degree days is mapped into a corresponding change in U.S. energy use for space conditioning, taking account of differences in population and baseline space conditioning intensity levels across regions, under the assumption that desired indoor temperature is unaffected by climate change. Finally, we estimate the associated change in energy expenditures. We find that a global warming of 1 degree C would reduce projected U.S. energy expenditures in 2010 by $5.5 billion (1991 dollars). This contrasts with earlier studies which have suggested modest global warming would increase U.S. expenditures on space conditioning energy.

The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards

This paper discusses several rationales for the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, including reduced oil dependence, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and the possibility that fuel saving benefits from higher standards might exceed added vehicle costs. We then summarize what can be said about the welfare effects of tightening standards, accounting for prior fuel taxes, and perverse effects on congestion and traffic accidents through the impact of improved fuel economy on the incentive to drive. Implications of CAFE on local air pollution, and the controversy over CAFE, vehicle weight, and road safety, are also discussed. Finally, we describe ways in which the existing CAFE program could be substantially improved and identify a variety of alternative, and much superior, policy approaches