The study of doping market: how to produce intelligence from Internet forums

Despite the predominant role played by Internet in the distribution of doping substances, little is currently known about the online offer of doping products. Therefore, the study focuses on the detection of doping substances and suppliers discussed in Internet forums. It aims at having a comprehensive understanding of products and sellers to lead an operational monitoring of the online doping market. Thirteen community forums on the Internet were investigated and one million topics were extracted with source code scrappers. Then, a semantic analysis was conducted with a semi-automatic process to classify the relevant words according to doping matters. Additionally, the ranking of doping products, active substances and suppliers in regards to the number of contributors to the forums were established and analyzed over time. Finally, promotion methods of suppliers were evaluated. The results show that anabolic androgenic steroids, used to enhance body image and performance, are the most discussed type of products. A temporal analysis illustrates the stability of the most popular products as well as the emergence of new products such as peptides (e.g. CJC-1295). 327 suppliers were detected, mostly with dedicated websites or direct sales by e-mail as selling methods. Globally, the implemented methodology shows its ability to detect products and suppliers as well as to follow their temporal trends. The intelligence will serve the definition of online monitoring strategies (e.g. the selection of appropriate keywords). Additionally, it also allows the adjustment of customs inspection strategies and anti-doping analysis by monitoring the popular and emerging substances

Actual and potential distribution of an invasive canola pest, Meligethes viridescens (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae), in Canada

Meligethes viridescens (Fabricius), bronzed or rape blossom beetle, is a widespread and common pest of oilseed rape [Brassica napus L. and Brassica rapa L. (Brassicaceae)] in the western Palaearctic subregion. The establishment of M. viridescens in eastern North America has raised concern that its presence is a potential risk to the Canadian canola industry, especially to the prairie ecozone of western Canada where up to 4 million ha of summer canola (B. napus and B. rapa) are grown annually. Study of museum specimens indicated that M. viridescens was first recorded in Nova Scotia in 1947. Field surveys indicated that, as of 2001, M. viridescens was established as far west as Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec. A CLIMEXTM model for M. viridescens in Europe was developed and validated with actual distribution records. In Canada the model predicted that once introduced, M. viridescens would readily survive in the canola-growing areas. The actual distribution of M. viridescens in eastern Canada matched the predicted distribution well. The westward dispersal to and establishment of M. viridescens in canola-growing areas of Ontario and western Canada, particularly southern Manitoba, appear to be inevitable. Establishment in these areas presents the risk of substantial production losses to canola producer

Des données aux connaissances, un chemin difficile: réflexion sur la place du data mining en analyse criminelle

Le "data mining", ou "fouille de données", est un ensemble de méthodes et de techniques attractif qui a connu une popularité fulgurante ces dernières années, spécialement dans le domaine du marketing. Le développement récent de l'analyse ou du renseignement criminel soulève des problèmatiques auxqwuelles il est tentant de d'appliquer ces méthodes et techniques. Le potentiel et la place du data mining dans le contexte de l'analyse criminelle doivent être mieux définis afin de piloter son application. Cette réflexion est menée dans le cadre du renseignement produit par des systèmes de détection et de suivi systématique de la criminalité répétitive, appelés processus de veille opérationnelle. Leur fonctionnement nécessite l'existence de patterns inscrits dans les données, et justifiés par les approches situationnelles en criminologie. Muni de ce bagage théorique, l'enjeu principal revient à explorer les possibilités de détecter ces patterns au travers des méthodes et techniques de data mining. Afin de répondre à cet objectif, une recherche est actuellement menée au Suisse à travers une approche interdisciplinaire combinant des connaissances forensiques, criminologiques et computationnelles

Crime linkage: A fuzzy MCDM approach

Grouping crimes having similarities has always been interesting for analysts. Actually, when a set of crimes share common properties, the capability to conduct reasoning and the automation with this set drastically increase. Conjunction, interpretation and explanation based on similarities can be key success factors to apprehend criminals. In this paper, we present a computerized method for high-volume crime linkage, based on a fuzzy MCDM approach in order to combine situational, behavioral, and forensic information. Experiments are conducted with series in burglaries from real data and compared to expert results

Nothing is permanent except change: A case study of crime displacement in Switzerland

This article presents the methodological process and the main findings of a research on crime displacement between two cantons (states) of Switzerland from 2009 to 2012. Two analytical axes have been considered: displacement of crime incidents on the one hand, and displacement of offenders for offences against the Swiss Criminal Code on the other hand. Data were provided by police statistics of the two cantons involved and by a regional crime intelligence database, supplemented by documentary analysis, interviews and field observations. Measures of crime displacement were realized with variation in crime rates, difference-in-differences estimation and weighted displacement quotient applied to a selection of offences. Findings suggest the presence of a regional crime displacement of burglary, pickpocketing, simple theft and break-in theft in vehicle between 2011 and 2012. Displacement of offenders seems to follow this trend as well and highlights a small proportion of inter-regional offenders, but who are extremely prolific. These results and the study of displacement in general shed light on the effect of crime reduction strategies and provide many prospective pathways, such as the strengthening of inter-regional collaborations between the police forces in a federal State, and the systematic use of crime intelligence to reduce mobile criminal activities

Devenir, demeurer, se désister? Des récits de vie pour éclairer les dynamiques de la déviance

Cet article explore les dynamiques entourant la déviance (criminalisée) de jeunes adultes, à partir de leurs récits de vie. Il s'appuie sur les narratifs de vingt-quatre hommes âgés de dixhuit à vingt-cinq ans, qui ont connu une expérience de judiciarisation. Leurs trajectoires sont investiguées en combinant deux portes d'entrée analytique rarement conjuguées en criminologie: celle, explicative, qui porte sur les facteurs qui de leurs points de vue sont à l'origine de leur délinquance et celle, compréhensive, qui restitue le sens qu'ils lui attribuent. Il ressort de notre analyse que les dynamiques entourant leur entrée, leur maintien et/ou leur sortie de la délinquance peuvent être ventilées sous trois systèmes, à savoir le système de la déviance, celui de la délinquance, et celui de l'économie parallèle. Ces trois systèmes sont en interaction et tendent à démontrer que la dimension de l'encadrement représente la variable explicative et compréhensive principale de l'entrée et de la persistance dans la délinquance, tandis que l'occupation professionnelle, lorsqu'elle est jugée satisfaisante en termes de rémunération et de valorisation, permet d'en saisir le processus de sortie