The real exchange rate process and its real effects: The cases of Mexico and the USA

Exchange rate management is a salient macroeconomic issue, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we study political economy factors that may affect the real exchange rate (RER) process and the real economic effects of the RER. We review recent literature on the effects of elections on the exchange rate, and adapt Ball’s (1992) model to show that uncertainty about the future course of policy may make more appreciated RER’s less predictable. We also review the literature on the real effect of RER appreciations and of RER uncertainty. We then construct a simultaneous GARCH-M model of the joint determination of the RER and output capable of testing our hypotheses simultaneously in a single model. We estimate the model using data first from Mexico, a developing country, and the US. In Mexico we find that elections significantly affect the evolution of the RER, that more appreciated RERs are less predictable, that RER depreciations lower output growth and that RER uncertainty lowers output growth, even when controlling for its wellstudied effect on trade. By contrast, none of these effects are found in the US data.real exchange rate volatility, economic growth, electoral cycle

El papel de la estrategia cambiaria en el comportamiento económico de países en desarrollo: evidencia para 1997

We examine the effect of different exchange rate regimes on the economic behavior of 16 developing countries during 1997. While current account deficits predict well the subsequent degree of currency depreciation, holding constant the deficit, the exchange rate regime in place at the beginning of the year is statistically irrelevant. However, countries with a fixed exchange rate at the beginning of 1997 suffered significantly larger stock market losses (measured in U.S. dollars) than those with floating rates. Given these results, we question the wisdom of encouraging developing countries to create and defend fixed exchange rates.

Linking Procurement Dollars to an Alternative Force Structures\u27 Combat Capability Using Response Surface Methodology

A General Officer Steering Group, chaired by HQ USAF/XOM tasked action to develop and implement evaluation and analysis support to lead turn\u27 the Program Objective Memorandum (POM) and Joint Warfare Capability Assessment (JWCA) process. This evaluation process should be designed to supply measures of the \u27health\u27 of the Air Force program in light of the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) and the Chairman\u27s Program Assessment (CPA). The Air Force needs to be able to quickly evaluate various alternative force structures with regards to its combat capability, measured in terms of theater level campaign objectives (CO). HQ USAF/XOM tasked HQ USAF/XPY to develop a \u27quick turn\u27 tool to perform iterative \u27exercises\u27, allowing for comparison of alternative force structures within 24 to 48 hours. Using Factor Analysis and Response Surface Methodology, this thesis successfully developed a \u27quick turn\u27 tool designed to capture the cost and capabilities of alternative force structures, linking dollars spent to campaign level measures of outcome

America and Reconsruction

Reconstruction has variously been termed repressive. . . uncivilized and a sordid time as well as a noble experiment. Reflected in those judgments of the era is the dispute over the effects of Reconstruction. To be more correct, one might say that there has been much conjecture in determining what, in fact, Reconstruction was. Questioned also has been the role of the black man during the period; much of what he did, or was responsible for, has, like Reconstruction itself, been subject to many and varied accounts and evaluations. The intent of this paper is to examine several volumes concerned with blacks during Reconstruction and to reflect upon the worth of those studies

Judicial Review of Parole Release Decisionmaking

An inmate at a federal penal institution is entitled only to be released after full service of his sentence less good time earned during incarceration. He or she is not entitled to parole, for parole is not a right but a privilege, a matter of legislative grace . The United States Board of Parole has absolute discretion in deciding whether and when to grant parole. The judiciary will not interfere with the Board, as courts are without power to grant a parole or to determine judicially eligibility for parole. And since the Board is statutorily authorized to exercise broad discretion, and its conclusions . . . are based upon numerous determinations of fact, and, more important, judgment, which in turn are influenced by personal observations that cannot be brought before a reviewing court, a hands off approach to judicial review of parole release decisionmaking has seemed warranted. If, however, the above reasoning can be demonstrated to be invalid, and other forces militating toward a hands off policy are shown to be less than compelling, then non-reviewability of Board determinations would be neither desirable nor possible

Testis-Ova in Spawning Blue Tilapia, Oreochromis aureus

Hermaphroditism characterized by the presence of oocytes in the testes is described in the blue tilapia, Oreochromis aureus, for the first time. Testis-ova were observed in three of 24 spawning males exhibiting otherwise normal male morphology. The testis-ova appeared non-vitellogenic and lacked a follicle cell layer. It is speculated that the testis-ova did not become vitellogenic due to their association with Sertoli cells and the hormonal environment of the male

Testis-Ova in Spawning Blue Tilapia, Oreochromis aureus

Hermaphroditism characterized by the presence of oocytes in the testes is described in the blue tilapia, Oreochromis aureus, for the first time. Testis-ova were observed in three of 24 spawning males exhibiting otherwise normal male morphology. The testis-ova appeared non-vitellogenic and lacked a follicle cell layer. It is speculated that the testis-ova did not become vitellogenic due to their association with Sertoli cells and the hormonal environment of the male

The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth

We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post-war U.S. data. Our results suggest that growth uncertainty is associated with higher average growth and lower average inflation. Inflation uncertainty is significantly negatively correlated with both output growth and average inflation. Both inflation and growth display evidence of significant asymmetric response to positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude.growth, inflation, uncertainty, asymmetry, generalised impluse response functions

Multidimensional optical fractionation with holographic verification

The trajectories of colloidal particles driven through a periodic potential energy landscape can become kinetically locked in to directions dictated by the landscape's symmetries. When the landscape is realized with forces exerted by a structured light field, the path a given particle follows has been predicted to depend exquisitely sensitively on such properties as the particle's size and refractive index These predictions, however, have not been tested experimentally. Here, we describe measurements of colloidal silica spheres' transport through arrays of holographic optical traps that use holographic video microscopy to track individual spheres' motions in three dimensions and simultaneously to measure each sphere's radius and refractive index with part-per-thousand resolution. These measurements confirm previously untested predictions for the threshold of kinetically locked-in transport, and demonstrate the ability of optical fractionation to sort colloidal spheres with part-per-thousand resolution on multiple characteristics simultaneously.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter