Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the time to first episode of clinical malaria.

<p>Dashed line represents the ‘more susceptible’ children and the solid line represents the time to first episode for the other children.</p

Distribution of the total number of ‘more susceptible’ children within study households.

<p>The clear circles represents the households that did not have any children ‘more susceptible’ than others, the circles with squares represent the households that had between 1–3 children ‘more susceptible’, the grey circles represent those that had 4–6 and the black circles represent those that had more than 7 children in the households ‘more susceptible’ than others. The smaller dots spread across the map are all the other households within the larger study area that were not included in the surveillance.</p

Comparing fit for the Poisson, Pareto and Negative Binomial distributions using observed total clinical malaria episodes per child as outcome.

<p>The X-axis is the total clinical episodes of malaria experienced per child and Y-axis is the proportion of children with given total disease episodes. The bars are the observed total number of cases per child, the black line is the predicted totals from the Poisson regression model, the dashed line represent the predicted total episodes from the negative binomial regression model while the crossed lines represents the predicted total episodes from the Pareto distribution. Figure (a) represents all the children, (b) all children under 5 years at the time the study started (who were followed up from 1998 to 2003) and (c) children ≥5 years of age (followed up from 1998 to 2001).</p

Episodes per child/year showing continuity of being ‘more susceptible’ over time.

<p>Note:</p>*<p>Age in years at the start of the study</p><p>Year 1 = September 1998 to September 1999</p><p>Year 2 = October 1999 to October 2000</p><p>Year 3 = October 2000 to November 2001</p><p>Year 4 = November 2001 to November 2002</p><p>Year 5 = December 2002 to September 2003.</p><p>M. susceptible = ‘more susceptible’. These are the children who experienced >2 episodes of clinical malaria above the total predicted from the Poisson regression model.</p

Non-admission clinical malaria episodes/child/year among children that were admitted at least once or never admitted during 3–5 years of follow-up.

<p>Box plot of the median(central line) 25%, 75% quartile ranges around the median (box width) and the upper and lower limits (T).</p

Areas under the ROC curves for the Multivariable weighted local prevalence based models for the three cohorts.

<p>Areas under the ROC curves for the Multivariable weighted local prevalence based models for the three cohorts.</p

Merozoite antibody versus weighted local prevalence based models in predicting malaria infection in a Junju sub-cohort.

<p>*AUC: Area under the curve.</p

Factors associated with children being ‘more susceptible’ than others.

<p>Note:</p>Ω<p>Bednets either untreated or treated that were in good condition.</p><p>*Transmission: This reflects the household level of transmission and shows the proportion of children in the two groups that came from homes with above average parasite rate (≥50%) compared to those below average (<50%).</p>§<p>These are geometric mean parasite densities in those cross-sectional surveys were the slide was positive. The cut-off for high geometric mean parasite density was set arbitrarily at >5,000 parasites/µl of blood compared to those with less</p>β<p>Compares those who were always negative at all six cross-sectional surveys with those who were positive at least once.</p>φ<p>α Thalassaemia genotype: Homozygous (-α/-α) and heterozygous (αα/-α) compared to normal (αα/αα). Comparing homozygous and heterozygous alone did not make a difference to these associations.</p

Demographic and parasitological characteristics of the cohorts used in the analysis.

<p>Demographic and parasitological characteristics of the cohorts used in the analysis.</p

Age-seroprevalence profile at various cut-off levels of seropositivity.

<p>The assay cut-off value of seropositivity is 1.5.</p