Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

BACKGROUND: Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. OBJECTIVE: Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. METHODS: The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P<0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. CONCLUSION: E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score’s simplicity and prognostic capacity for death

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

Martinez-Garcia MA,1,2 Athanazio RA,3 Gir&oacute;n R,4 M&aacute;iz-Carro L,5 de la Rosa D,6 Olveira C,7 de Gracia J,2,8 Vendrell M,9 Prados-S&aacute;nchez C,10 Gramblicka G,11 Corso Pereira M,12 Lundgren FL,13 Fernandes De Figueiredo M,14 Arancibia F,15 Rached SZ3 1Pulmonary Service, Polytechnic and University La Fe Hospital, Valencia, Spain; 2CIBERes, CIBER de Enfermedades Respiratorias. Madrid. Spain; 3Pulmonary Division, Heart Institute (Incor), Hospital das Cl&iacute;nicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de S&atilde;o Paulo; 4Pneumology Service, Hospital La Princesa, 5Pneumology Service, Hospital Ram&oacute;n y Cajal, Madrid, 6Pneumology Unit, Hospital Plat&oacute;, Barcelona, 7Pneumology, M&aacute;laga Regional University Hospital, Instituto de Biomedicina de M&aacute;laga (IBIMA), M&aacute;laga University, Spain; 8Pneumology Service, Hospital Vall d&rsquo;Hebron, Barcelona, 9Bronchiectasis Group IDIBGI, Dr. Trueta University Hospital. UdG. Ciberes CB06/06/0030, 10Unidad de Fibrosis Qu&iacute;stica y Bronquiectasias. Hospital Universitario La Paz. Madrid. Spain; 11Pneumology Service, Hospital del T&oacute;rax Dr A Cetr&aacute;ngolo, Buenos Aires, Argentina; 12Pneumology Service, Universidade Estadual de Campinas UNICAMP, Sao Paulo, 13Pneumology Service, Hospital Oct&aacute;vio de Freitas, Recife, 14Pneumology Service, Hospital de Messejana, Fortaleza, Brazil; 15Pneumology Service, Instituto Nacional del T&oacute;rax, Santiago de Chile, Chile Background: Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients.Objective: Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality.Methods: The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts.Results: A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P&lt;0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED.Conclusion: E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score&rsquo;s simplicity and prognostic capacity for death. Keywords: FACED score, E-FACED score, mortality, bronchiectasis, exacerbation

Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score.

Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score's simplicity and prognostic capacity for death