Location of villages in the eastern Okavango Delta Panhandle (Botswana).

<p>Circles represent the thirteen villages (i.e. Mohembo East, Kauxwi, Tobera, Xakao, Sekondomboro, Ngarange, Mogotho, Mokgacha, Seronga, Gunotsoga, Eretsha, Beetsha and Gudigwa) along the Okavango River. The small southern Africa inset map shows the location of the study area in northern Botswana in white. This image is not identical to <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0178840#pone.0178840.g002" target="_blank">Fig 2</a> in Songhurst and Coulson (2014), and therefore it is for illustrative purposes only.</p

Summary of model selection with corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc).

<p>Summary of model selection with corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc).</p

Temporal interaction between reported raid incidents and HEC drivers.

<p>(A) corresponds to the predicted number of reported raids incidents (RRI) per person (back) and per elephant (grey), (B) agricultural land allocated (ALA) per person (back) and elephant (grey); and (C) estimated raiding incidents per ha of agricultural land allocated (ALA). Dashed lines correspond to predictions from the historical model (1970s - 2015) and continuous lines to predictions from the contemporary model (2008–2015).</p

Summary of best historical and contemporary models.

<p>Summary of best historical and contemporary models.</p

Historical trends for HEC drivers in the eastern Panhandle.

<p><b>(</b>A) corresponds to human population, (B) elephant population, and (C) agricultural land allocated (ALA) (ha) in the Grey dots and black lines represent raw data and the best fitted model, respectively.</p

Temporal differences in predicted raiding incidents as derived from generalized linear models (GLMs).

<p>(A) and (C) show predicted reported raid incidents (RRI) from multivariate GLMs based on historical (a; 1970s – 2015) and contemporary (c; 2008–2015) data. In both graphs, grey lines represent model 1 (RRI ~ people + elephants + ALA), dotted lines model 2 (RRI ~ people + elephants), and dashed lines model 3 (RRI ~ people + ALA). (B) and (D) show RRI for the next 10 years (2015–2025) from the best GLMs (model 1) selected for historical (b) and contemporary (d) scales. Black lines correspond to raw number of RRI in all cases.</p

Contemporary trends for HEC drivers in the eastern Panhandle.

<p><b>(</b>A) corresponds to agricultural allocated land (ALA) (ha), and (B) number of reported of raid incidents (RRI) in the eastern Panhandle. Grey dots and black lines represent raw data and the best fitted model, respectively.</p

Human and elephant population size, agricultural land allocated (ALA) and number of reported raid incidents (RRI) from raw and predicted data.

<p>Human and elephant population size, agricultural land allocated (ALA) and number of reported raid incidents (RRI) from raw and predicted data.</p