Private Property Vehicles: The Valuation of Interests in Limited Partnerships

This paper examines the extent to which the valuation of partial interests in private property vehicles should be closely aligned to the valuation of the underlying assets.    A sample of vehicle managers and investors replied to a questionnaire on the qualities of private property vehicles relative to direct property investment. Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique the relative importance of the various advantages and disadvantages of investment in private property vehicles relative to acquisition of the underlying assets are assessed.  The results suggest that the main drivers of the growth of the this sector have been the ability for certain categories of investor to acquire interests in assets that are normally inaccessible due to the amount of specific risk.  Additionally, investors have been attracted by the ability to ‘outsource’ asset management in a manner that minimises perceived agency problems.  It is concluded that deviations from NAV should be expected given that investment in private property vehicles differs from investment in the underlying assets in terms of liquidity, management structures, lot size, financial structure inter alia.  However, reliably appraising the pricing implications of these variations is likely to be extremely difficult due to the lack of secondary market trading and vehicle heterogeneity. Private Property Vehicles, PPV, Valuation

Analysing Uk Real Estate Market Forecast Disagreement

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts.  Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist.    The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.Real Estate Forecasting, Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Disagreement, Consensus.

An Evaluation Of The Performance Of UK Real Estate Forecasters

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. It compares the performance of real estate forecasters with non-real estate forecasters. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters and a similar survey of macro-economic and capital market forecasters, these forecasts are compared with actual performance to assess a number of forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that both groups are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding.Real Estate Forecasting, Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Disagreement, Individual Forecast, Consensus

Development of an Assay for a Diels-Alderase Enzyme

We have been developing an assay for a Diels-Alderase enzyme. The assay is based on the proposed biosynthesis of chalcomoracin iv, a natural antifungal compound from the white mulberry Morus alba, which is thought to be formed by an enzyme-mediated Diels-Alder reaction between dienie ii and morachalcone A iii. Diene ii has never been isolated, but an analogue of ii, moracin C i has been isolated from M. alba and is thought to be a biological precursor to diene ii. We have developed the most efficient synthesis of moracin C i to date (10 steps, 12.3% overall), involving a 'one-pot' ester formation/intramolecular Wittig reaction, regioselective ortho-lithiation, and an unexpected but advantageous acid- induced acyl migration. Our route provides a general method for the synthesis of polyphenolic benzofurans. We have synthesised a sample of diene ii using a route similar to that of moracin C (12 steps). This synthesis included a regioselective carboxylation and an E- selective modified Julia olefination. The small sample of ii obtained was not fully characterised, due to instability during chromatography, but the structure was unequivocally confirmed by 1H NMR spectroscopy. We have prepared a series of protected morachalcone A iii precursors. These are easily prepared (3 steps), and while suitable deprotection conditions have not yet been found, this route can provide suitable intermediates for a biomimetic or total synthesis of chalcomoracin. Structural modifications were made to moracin C (see below), and in an attempt to probe the substrate specificity of the Diels-Alderase enzyme, two potential substrates v and vi, were fed to suspensions of M. alba cells. Initial analysis suggested that one of these compounds (v) was incorporated

The ORGAN Experiment: An axion haloscope above 15 GHz

We present first results and future plans for the Oscillating Resonant Group AxioN (ORGAN) experiment, a microwave cavity axion haloscope situated in Perth, Western Australia designed to probe for high mass axions motivated by several theoretical models. The first stage focuses around 26.6 GHz in order to directly test a claimed result, which suggests axions exist at the corresponding mass of $110~\mu$eV. Later stages will move to a wider scan range of 15-50 GHz ($60-210~\mu$eV). We present the results of the pathfinding run, which sets a limit on $g_{a\gamma\gamma}$ of $2.02\times 10^{-12}$eV$^{-1}$ at 26.531 GHz, or 110~$\mu$eV, in a span of 2.5 neV (shaped by the Lorentzian resonance) with $90 \%$ confidence. Furthermore, we outline the current design and future strategies to eventually attain the sensitivity to search for well known axion models over the wider mass range.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures. V2: As published in Physics of Dark Univers

Statistical analysis plan for the stepped-wedge clinical trial Healing Right Way - Enhancing rehabilitation services for Aboriginal Australians after brain injury

Background: Aboriginal Australians are known to suffer high levels of acquired brain injury (stroke and traumatic brain injury) yet experience significant barriers in accessing rehabilitation services. The aim of the Healing Right Way trial is to evaluate a culturally secure intervention for Aboriginal people with newly acquired brain injury to improve their rehabilitation experience and quality of life. Following publication of the trial protocol, this paper outlines the statistical analysis plan prior to locking the database. Methods: The trial involves a stepped wedge design with four steps over 3 years. Participants were 108 adult Aboriginal Australians admitted to one of eight hospitals (four rural, four urban) in Western Australia within 6 weeks of onset of a new stroke or traumatic brain injury who consented to follow-up for 26 weeks. All hospital sites started in a control phase, with the intervention assigned to pairs of sites (one metropolitan, one rural) every 26 weeks until all sites received the intervention. The two-component intervention involves training in culturally safe care for hospital sites and enhanced support provided to participants by Aboriginal Brain Injury Coordinators during their hospital stay and after discharge. The primary outcome is quality of life as measured by the Euro QOL–5D-3L VAS. A mixed effects linear regression model will be used to assess the between-group difference at 26 weeks post-injury. The model will control for injury type and severity, age at recruitment and time since commencement of the trial, as fixed effects. Recruitment site and participant will be included as random effects. Secondary outcomes include measurements of function, independence, anxiety and depression, carer strain, allied health occasions of service received and hospital compliance with minimum processes of care based on clinical guidelines and best practice models of care. Discussion: The trial will provide the first data surrounding the effectiveness of an intervention package for Aboriginal people with brain injury and inform future planning of rehabilitation services for this population. The statistical analysis plan outlines the analyses to be undertaken. Trial registration: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12618000139279. Registered 30 January, 2018

PRENOLIN project. Results of the validation phase at sendai site

One of the objectives of the PRENOLIN project is the assessment of uncertainties associated with non-linear simulation of 1D site effects. An international benchmark is underway to test several numerical codes, including various non-linear soil constitutive models, to compute the non-linear seismic site response. The preliminary verification phase (i.e. comparison between numerical codes on simple, idealistic cases) is now followed by the validation phase, which compares predictions of such numerical estimations with actual strong motion data recorded from well-known sites. The benchmark presently involves 21 teams and 21 different non-linear computations. Extensive site characterization was performed at three sites of the Japanese KiK-net and PARI networks. This paper focuses on SENDAI site. The first results indicate that a careful analysis of the data for the lab measurement is required. The linear site response is overestimated while the non-linear effects are underestimated in the first iteration. According to these observations, a first set of recommendations for defining the non-linear soil parameters from lab measurements is proposed. PRENOLIN is part of two larger projects: SINAPS@, funded by the ANR (French National Research Agency) and SIGMA, funded by a consortium of nuclear operators (EDF, CEA, AREVA, ENL)