The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes

Following a minimum wage hike, spending increases more than income, and thus debt rises, in households with minimum wage workers. The size, as well as the timing, persistence, composition, and distribution of the spending response is inconsistent with the basic certainty equivalent life cycle model. However, the response is consistent with a model where households can borrow against part of the value of their durable goods

Valuation Effects and External Adjustment: a Review

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International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI: interim report

We are in the midst of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. Artificial Intelligence (AI) promises to transform many aspects of our society and economy.There is broad scientific consensus that the capabilities of AI systems have progressed rapidly on many tasks in the last five years. Large Language Models (LLMs) are a particularly salient example. In 2019, GPT-2, then the most advanced LLM, could not reliably produce a coherent paragraph of text and could not always count to ten. At the time of writing, the most powerful LLMs like Claude 3, GPT-4, and Gemini Ultra can engage consistently in multi-turn conversations, write short computer programs, translate between multiple languages, score highly on university entrance exams, and summarise long documents. This step-change in capabilities, and the potential for continued progress, could help advance the public interest in many ways. Among the most promising prospects are AI’s potential for education, medical applications, research advances in a wide range of fields, and increased innovation leading to increased prosperity. This rapid progress has also increased awareness of the current harms and potential future risks associated with the most capable types of AI