Booms and Busts in EMU

A floating exchange rate combined with a clear inflation target can be a powerful stabilizer even if there are fluctuations in exchange rates that are unrelated to current fundamentals. Under plausible conditions, most of the stabilisation will occur through the exchange rate, and fundamental shocks will generate considerable medium term exchange rate volatility. The consequences of asymmetric shocks inside EMU are worse than envisaged in early analyses of the EMU project such as Calmfors et al. (1997). Inflation and real interest rate differentials arise which magnify the imbalances and cause boom-bust cycles in the member countries.optimal currency area; imperfect competition; interest parity; real interest rate

Insider Bargaining Power, Starting Wages, and Involuntary Unemployment

Recent analyses of wage bargaining has emphasized the distinction between insiders and outsiders, yet one typically assumes that insiders and recently hired outsiders are paid the same wage. We consider a model where the starting wage for outsiders may be lower than the insider wage, but incentive constraints associated with turnover affect the form of the contract. We examine under what conditions the starting wage is linked to the insider wage so that increased bargaining power of insiders raises the starting wage and reduces hiring of outsiders.starting wage; bargain; seniority; unemployment

Real and nominal wage adjustment in open economies

How are wages set in an open economy? What role is played by demand pressure, international competition, and structural factors in the labour market? How important is nominal wage rigidity and exchange rate policy for the medium term evolution of real wages and competitiveness? To answer these questions, we formulate a theoretical model of wage bargaining in an open economy and use it to derive a simple wage equation where all parameters have clear economic interpretations. We estimate the wage equation on data for aggregate manufacturing wages in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden from the mid 1960s to the mid 1990s.Wage formation; efficiency wage; turnover; bargaining; rent sharing; nominal wage rigidity; exchange rate policy; competitiveness

Why Don't Prices Fall in a Recession? Financial Constraints, Investment, and Customer Relations

We construct a model of a financially constrained firm making pricing and investment decisions. The firm operates in a market where customers respond slowly to price changes and there are implementation lags in investment (time to build). Our model implies that the markup over marginal cost is counter-cyclical, the product price responds slowly to demand shocks, and quickly to cost shocks, and the price is strongly related to investment. Estimating the decision rules on aggregate data for Swedish industry, we find that the qualitative results are in line with our model.customer market; price rigidity; price equation; investment equation

Real and Nominal Wage Adjustment in Open Economies

How are wages set in an open economy? What role is played by demand pressure, international competition, and structural factors in the labour market? How important is nominal wage rigidity and exchange rate policy for the evolution of real wages and competitiveness? To answer these questions, we formulate a theoretical model of wage bargaining in an open economy and use it to derive a simple wage equation where all parameters have clear economic interpretations. We estimate the wage equation on data for aggregate manufacturing wages in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden from the mid 1960s to the mid 1990s.wage formation, efficiency wage, turnover, bargaining, rent sharing, nominal wage rigidity, exchange rate policy, competitiveness

Testing Theories of Job Creation: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?

Although search-matching theory has come to dominate labor economics in recent years, few attempts have been made to compare the empirical relevance of search-matching theory to efficiency wage and bargaining theories, where employment is determined by labor demand. In this paper we formulate an empirical equation for net job creation, which encompasses search-matching theory and a standard labor demand model. Estimation on firm-level data yields support for the labor demand model, wages and product demand affect job creation, but we find no evidence that unemployed workers contribute to job creation, as predicted by search-matching theory.job creation, involuntary unemployment, search-matching, labor demand, competitiveness

Bargaining with renegotiation in models with on-the-job search

This paper studies renegotiation in models with on-the-job search, with an application to minimum wages. My formulation nests earlier models in the literature as limit cases when the frequency of renegotiation goes to zero or infinity. The equilibrium wage distribution and the bargaining outcomes are unique. When there is a strong response of turnover to a wage increase, firms accept higher wages, which increases the share of the surplus captured by the worker. Turnover responds more to wages when marginally better job offers arrive more frequently, and when renegotiation occurs less frequently. A minimum wage increase leads to a higher density of jobs at the minimum wage. This can spread up the wage distribution, as the increased density provides a motive for firms to accept higher wages in order to reduce turnover. However, this effect depends crucially on the frequency of renegotiation being low

Returns to on-the-job search and the dispersion of wages

A wide class of models with On-the-Job Search (OJS) predicts that workers gradually select into better-paying jobs. We develop a simple methodology to test predictions implied by OJS using two sources of identification: (i) time-variation in job-finding rates and (ii) the time since the last lay-off. Conditional on the termination date of the job, job duration should be distributed uniformly. This methodology is applied to the NLSY 79. We find remarkably strong support for all implications. The standard deviation of the wage offer distribution is about 15%. OJS accounts for 30% of the experience profile, 9% of total wage dispersion and an average wage loss of 11% following a lay-off

A job ladder model with stochastic employment opportunities

We set up a model with on-the-job search in which firms infrequently post vacancies for which workers occasionally apply. The model nests the standard job ladder and stock-flow models as special cases, while remaining analytically tractable and easy to estimate from standard panel data sets. The parameters from a structurally estimated model on US data are significantly different from either the restrictions imposed by a stock-flow or job ladder model. Imposing these restrictions significantly understates the search option associated with employment and are, unlike our model, inconsistent with recent survey evidence and declining job finding rates and starting wage with duration of unemployment, both of which are present in the data