Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe

The response to the emergence of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic was the result of a decade of pandemic planning, largely centred on the threat of an avian influenza A(H5N1) pandemic. Based on a literature review, this study aims to define a set of new pandemic scenarios that could be used in case of a future influenza pandemic. A total of 338 documents were identified using a searching strategy based on seven combinations of keywords. Eighty-three of these documents provided useful information on the 13 virus-related and health-system-related parameters initially considered for describing scenarios. Among these, four parameters were finally selected (clinical attack rate, case fatality rate, hospital admission rate, and intensive care admission rate) and four different levels of severity for each of them were set. The definition of six most likely scenarios results from the combination of four different levels of severity of the four final parameters (256 possible scenarios). Although it has some limitations, this approach allows for more flexible scenarios and hence it is far from the classic scenarios structure used for pandemic plans until 2009

Takayasu’s arteritis: a rare disease in Poland

Introduction. Takayasu’s arteritis (TA) is a rare and potentially life-threatening granulomatous large-vessel vasculitis that involves mostly in the aorta and its proximal branches, and occurs most commonly in young females. This study measures the incidence and prevalence of TA, and assesses the gender distribution and territorial differences in the occurrences of this disease in Poland over a five-year period. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evaluation of this rare disease in Poland based on a hospital morbidity database. Materials and method. Analyses were performed with population-based administrative data obtained from a national hospital morbidity study carried out between January 2011 – December 2015 by the Polish National Institute of Public Health. Yearly incidence rates and prevalence of TA were calculated using the number of TA patients and corresponding census data for the overall Polish population. Results. Data included 660 hospitalization records. The final study sample comprised 177 patients: 154 female (87%) and 23 male (13%) with first-time hospitalization for TA. The mean age was 45.4years (95% CI: 42.9–47.8; SD 16.8; range 4–81 years), median 47. The incidence rate of TA was estimated at 0.92 per million per year (95% CI: 0.68–1.16). Five-year TA prevalence was estimated to be 4,6 per million. Incidence rates of TA did not vary significantly between more urban and more rural regions. Conclusions. The incidence of TA in Poland was similar or lower to data reported by other European countries. The study provides epidemiological data on TA in Poland that may be useful while comparing it with other geographical regions