2,040 research outputs found
The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence
The paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-08 and 1869-28. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors, and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick aeries but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than in the postwar period.
The Estimation of Prewar GNP Volatility, 1869-1938
New evidence is provided to assess the recent controversy regarding the volatility of real economic activity before 1929 relative to the period since World War II. Some recent work claims that the longstanding stylized fact of greater prewar volatility is "spurious". In contrast, this paper reconfirms the greater amplitude of business fluctuations prior to the Great Depression. The basic technique is the regression method, which estimates equations for real GNP during 1909-38, with one or more explanatory variables for components of GNP, and then uses the estimated coefficients to "backcast" real GNP or the period 1869-1908. The paper contains an extensive examination of the sensitivity of these regression indexes to alternative dependent variables, sample periods, detrending methods, and the inclusion of alternative explanatory variables. Particular attention is paid to the conflicting evidence regarding the amplitude of cycles in construction activity between 1870 and 1890. The resulting prewar/postwar volatility ratios, for 1869-1928 as compared to 1950-1980, range from 1.43 to 2.16. The paper concludes by suggesting that this range of volatility ratios is more likely to understate than overstate the prewar/postwar volatility ratio.
Полиграфические исследования на практике. Наука или искусство?
Publikacja recenzowana / Peer-reviewed publicatio
A Theoretical Analysis of the Direct Lie Question (DLC)
"The Directed Lie Comparison (DLC) question is being used in the field increasingly
as some researchers have continuously suggested its use in a pedantic manner with
statistical smoke and mirrors to replace the traditional Probable Lie Comparison
(PLC) question.
The DLC is employed by basically informing the examinee that all people have done
these things in their lifetime (lied, broke a traffi c law, etc.) however, so the examiner
can see exactly what happens physiologically when they lie they are to answer these
questions “No.”"(...
A Realistic Perspective of the Art and Science of Forensic Psychophysiology
"In the early 1960s, Cleve Backster – perhaps the most brilliant polygraph innovator
our profession has known – developed major changes in technique
structure and introduced many intensely needed psychological concepts to
advance our profession. One of the major changes he introduced in technique
development was the change in question sequence format from a traditional
Relevant – Comparison question sequence, to a structure that introduced
placing the Comparison before the Relevant, or a Comparison – Relevant
sequence."(...
Effectiveness of the Integrated Zone Comparision Technique (IZCT) with Various Scoring Systems in a Mock Crime Experiment by Students
"The IZCT was developed at the Academy for Scientific Investigative Training
in 1987. It is currently used in the fields of law enforcement, intelligence, and
private security in numerous countries around the world. It is a modification
of the Backster Zone Comparison Technique format, in a structure that closely resembles the zone technique validated at the University of Utah. It
is a fl exible technique format, allowing it to be used for Single-issue, Multifaceted
and Multi-issue investigations."(...
Validation of the Forensic Assessment Interview Technique
This research paper has examined the validity of the Forensic Assessment Interview Technique (FAINT). FAINT is a specific interview process - accepted and in current use - integrating the works of this researcher with the works of John Reid, Richard Arther, and Avinoam Sapir. The FAINT technique involves the evaluation of nonverbal behavior, projective analysis of unwitting verbal cues, and statement analysis. The fundamental hypothesis of FAINT is that truthful and deceptive criminal suspects differ demonstrably in their nonverbal, verbal and written communication, when asked to respond to a structured format of interview questions.
FAINT maintains that these differences are observable and can be quantified to allow forensic interviewers to make accurate determinations of a suspect's involvement in a crime. This research has examined the validity of the technique as measured by a traditional, unweighted 3 point scale and a weighted scoring system (an issue being researched in this paper) comparatively used for determining truth or deception. This dissertation reports the results of both scoring systems, as well as a comparison between them and the historically used Behavioral Analysis Interview (BAI) that was developed by John E. Reid.Criminology and Security ScienceMA (Criminology
Directed Lie – The Correct or the Easy Way?
Lately there had been a huge push in our profession toward the use to use the Directed Lie
Comparison question (DLC). The truth verification field is divided into “pro and con” towards
this idea, like many things in life. This article will research whether this “new fashion” is really
the correct way or the easy or lazy way to conduct psychophysiological truth verification examinations,
as well as make comparisons between the advantages and disadvantages between the
DLC and the Probable Lie Comparison question (PLC)
Characteristics of replicated single-nucleotide polymorphism genotypes from COGA: Affymetrix and Center for Inherited Disease Research
Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 provided re-genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. Specifically, both Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) and Affymetrix genotyped the same 11,560 SNPs from the Affymetrix GeneChip Mapping 10K Array marker set on the same 184 individuals from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism database. While the inconsistency rate between CIDR and Affymetrix (two different genotypes for the same subject) was low (0.2%), the non-replication rate (two different genotypes for the same subject or one identified genotype and one missing genotype) was substantial (9.5%). The missing data could be from no-call regions, which is inconsistent with recent recommendations about the use of no-call regions in association tests. In addition, no-call regions would suggest that the actual inconsistency rate is higher than reported. A high inconsistency rate has significant impact on power in related hypothesis tests. In addition, the data are consistent with assumptions made in a recently proposed likelihood ratio test of association for re-genotyped data
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