College Risk and Return

Attending college is thought of as a very profitable investment decision, as its estimated annualized return ranges from 8% to 13%. However, a large fraction of high school graduates do not enroll in college. I reconcile the observed high average returns to schooling with relatively low attendance rates when considering college as a risky investment decision. A high dropout risk has two important effects on the estimated average returns to college: selection bias and risk premium. In order to explicitly consider the selection bias, I explore the dropout risk in a life-cycle model with heterogeneous ability. The risk-premium of college participation accounts for 21% of the excess returns to college education for highability students and 19% of the excess return for low-ability students. Risk averse agents are willing to reduce their return to college in order to avoid the dropout risk. The effect is not uniform across ability levels.

Risk Premium and Expectations in Higher Education

This paper takes the risk of college participation into context when evaluating the return to college education. College dropout and a higher permanent income shock for those who graduate from college accounts for 51% of the excess return to college education. Using a simple risk premium approach, I reconcile the observed high average returns to schooling with relatively low attendance rates. A high dropout risk has two important effects on the estimated average returns to college education: via selection bias and via risk premium.

Self – Employment, Labor Market Rigidities and Unemployment Over the Business Cycle

In a general equilibrium context, we analyze the impact of changes in institutional labor market conditions, such as access to financing and efficiency, on the composition of employment and unemployment, considering the nature of formal labor contracts and the entrepreneurial capacity of the labor force. We extend the Mortensen - Pissarides model to allow for two types of formal job contracts: temporary and permanent; and we also allow for self-employment. We show that labor market efficiency as well as access to selfemployment financing played a key role in the evolution of employment in Chile during the last 15 years. Additionally, and not surprisingly, tougher access to financing adversely affects self-employment

Accounting for Changes in College Attendance Profile: a Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis

This paper analyzes changes in the distribution of college enrollment rates that occurred between 1980 and 2000. It aims not only to explain the 69% increase in the overall college enrollment, but also changes in the profile of college students in terms of their ability and financial status. College attendance increased by 27% less than average among individuals in the lowest quartile of the joint family income and ability distribution. However, it increased by 12% more than average for individuals in the highest quartile of the distribution. The increase in college enrollment was far from uniform and, to explain these changes, I construct a life-cycle heterogeneous agents model of labor supply and human capital formation. The model is calibrated to match schooling patterns and labor market outcomes for the 1979 and 1997 NLSY cohorts. I explicitly model and quantitatively estimate the effect of four potential driving forces to explain the observed changes: The increase in the college wage gap, the change in the allocation of grants and scholarships, the increase in educational costs, and the changes in the ability and family income distribution. Finally, I explore alternative educational policies and their effect on different population groups.

Death and the Societies of Late Antiquity

Ce volume bilingue, comprenant un ensemble de 28 contributions disponibles en français et en anglais (dans leur version longue ou abrégée), propose d’établir un état des lieux des réflexions, recherches et études conduites sur le fait funéraire à l’époque tardo-antique au sein des provinces de l’Empire romain et sur leurs régions limitrophes, afin d’ouvrir de nouvelles perspectives sur ses évolutions possibles. Au cours des trois dernières décennies, les transformations considérables des méthodologies déployées sur le terrain et en laboratoire ont permis un renouveau des questionnements sur les populations et les pratiques funéraires de l’Antiquité tardive, période marquée par de multiples changements politiques, sociaux, démographiques et culturels. L’apparition de ce qui a été initialement désigné comme une « Anthropologie de terrain », qui fut le début de la démarche archéothanatologique, puis le récent développement d’approches collaboratives entre des domaines scientifiques divers (archéothanatologie, biochimie et géochimie, génétique, histoire, épigraphie par exemple) ont été décisives pour le renouvellement des problématiques d’étude : révision d’anciens concepts comme apparition d’axes d’analyse inédits. Les recherches rassemblées dans cet ouvrage sont articulées autour de quatre grands thèmes : l’évolution des pratiques funéraires dans le temps, l’identité sociale dans la mort, les ensembles funéraires en transformation (organisation et topographie) et les territoires de l’empire (du cœur aux marges). Ces études proposent un réexamen et une révision des données, tant anthropologiques qu’archéologiques ou historiques sur l’Antiquité tardive, et révèlent, à cet égard, une mosaïque de paysages politiques, sociaux et culturels singulièrement riches et complexes. Elles accroissent nos connaissances sur le traitement des défunts, l’emplacement des aires funéraires ou encore la structure des sépultures, en révélant une diversité de pratiques, et permettent au final de relancer la réflexion sur la manière dont les sociétés tardo-antiques envisagent la mort et sur les éléments permettant d’identifier et de définir la diversité des groupes qui les composent. Elles démontrent ce faisant que nous pouvons véritablement appréhender les structures culturelles et sociales des communautés anciennes et leurs potentielles transformations, à partir de l’étude des pratiques funéraires.This bilingual volume proposes to draw up an assessment of the recent research conducted on funerary behavior during Late Antiquity in the provinces of the Roman Empire and on their borders, in order to open new perspectives on its possible developments. The considerable transformations of the methodologies have raised the need for a renewal of the questions on the funerary practices during Late Antiquity, a period marked by multiple political, social, demographic and cultural changes. The emergence field anthropology, which was the beginning of archaeothanatology, and then the recent development of collaborative approaches between various scientific fields (archaeothanatology, biochemistry and geochemistry, genetics, history, epigraphy, for example), have been decisive. The research collected in this book is structured around four main themes: Evolution of funerary practices over time; Social identity through death; Changing burial grounds (organisation and topography); Territories of the Empire (from the heart to the margins). These studies propose a review and a revision of the data, both anthropological and archaeological or historical on Late Antiquity, and reveal a mosaic of political, social, and cultural landscapes singularly rich and complex. In doing so, they demonstrate that we can truly understand the cultural and social structures of ancient communities and their potential transformations, based on the study of funerary practices

College Risk and Return ∗

Attending college is thought of as a very profitable investment decision, as its estimated annualized return ranges from 8 % to 13%. However, a large fraction of high school graduates do not enroll in college. Using a simple risk premium approach, I reconcile the observed high average returns to schooling with relatively low attendance rates. A high dropout risk has two important effects on the estimated average returns to college: selection bias and risk premium. Taking into account dropout risk, a simple calculation of risk premium accounts for 51 % of the excess return to college education. In order to explicitly consider the selection bias, I further explore the dropout risk in a life-cycle model with heterogeneous ability. The risk-premium of college participation accounts for 29 % of the excess returns to college education for high-ability students and 27 % of the excess return for low-ability students. Risk averse agents are willing to reduce their return to college in order to avoid the dropout risk. The effect is not uniform across ability levels

Risk premium and expectations in higher education

This paper takes the risk of college participation into context when evaluating the return to college education. College dropout and a higher permanent income shock for those who graduate from college accounts for 51% of the excess return to college education. Using a simple risk premium approach, I reconcile the observed high average returns to schooling with relatively low attendance rates. A high dropout risk has two important effects on the estimated average returns to college education: via selection bias and via risk premium.Este estudio considera el riesgo involucrado en la decisión de continuar con educación superior al evaluar el retorno a la educación terciaria. El riesgo de no terminar el ciclo universitario y el mayor shock permanente en salarios para aquellos que se gradúan de la universidad explica un 51% del exceso del retorno a la educación. Utilizando un modelo simple de premio por riesgo, se concilian los altos niveles de retorno a la educación con bajas tasas de participación universitaria. Un alto riesgo de no graduarse de la universidad tiene dos importantes efectos sobre los retornos a educación estimados: el sesgo de selección y el premio por riesgo

Accounting for Changes in College Attendance Profile: A Quantitative Life-Cycle Analysis

This paper analyzes changes in the distribution of college enrollment rates that occurred between 1980 and 2000. It aims not only to explain the 69% increase in the overall college enrollment, but also changes in the profile of college students in terms of their ability and financial status. College attendance increased by 27% less than average among individuals in the lowest quartile of the joint family income and ability distribution. However, it increased by 12% more than average for individuals in the highest quartile of the distribution. The increase in college enrollment was far from uniform and, to explain these changes, I construct a life-cycle heterogeneous agents model of labor supply and human capital formation. The model is calibrated to match schooling patterns and labor market outcomes for the 1979 and 1997 NLSY cohorts. I explicitly model and quantitatively estimate the effect of four potential driving forces to explain the observed changes: The increase in the college wage gap, the change in the allocation of grants and scholarships, the increase in educational costs, and the changes in the ability and family income distribution. Finally, I explore alternative educational policies and their effect on different population groups.El documento analiza los cambios en la distribución de tasas de matrículas universitarias entre los años 1980 y 2000. El propósito no es sólo explicar el 69% de incremento del número de matrículas, sino también cambios en el perfil del estudiante, en términos de su habilidad e ingreso familiar. Las matrículas universitarias aumentaron un 27% menos que el promedio para estudiantes del cuartíl más bajo de la distribución conjunta de habilidad e ingreso familiar; sin embargo, aumentó en 12% más para los del cuartíl más alto. El aumento de matriculas universitarias no fue uniforme, y para explicar dichos cambios se construye un modelo de ciclo de vida con agentes heterogéneos que optan por acumular capital humano o participar en la fuerza laboral. El modelo es calibrado para replicar patrones de matrícula observados en los paneles NLSY de 1979 y 1997. Se modela explícitamente y se cuantifican los efectos de cuatro fuerzas: incremento del premio a la educación, cambios en la distribución de becas, incremento de costos educacionales y cambios en la distribución de habilidad e ingreso familiar. Finalmente se exploran las políticas educacionales y su efecto sobre distintos grupos de individuos

The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination

This study examines changes in returns to formal education and cognitive ability over the last 20 years using the 1979 and 1997 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We show that cognitive skills had a substantially larger impact on wages in the 1980s than in the 2000s. Returns to education were higher in the 2000s. These developments are not explained by changing distributions of workers ’ observable characteristics or by changing labor market structure. We show that the decline in returns to ability can be attributed to differences in the growth rate of technology between the 1980s and 2000s