Almost sure invariance principle for random piecewise expanding maps

We prove a fiberwise almost sure invariance principle for random piecewise expanding transformations in one and higher dimensions using recent developments on martingale techniques

Estimating development effort in free/open source software projects by mining software repositories: A case study of OpenStack

Because of the distributed and collaborative nature of free/open source software (FOSS) projects, the development effort invested in a project is usually unknown, even after the software has been released. However, this information is becoming of major interest, especially-but not only-because of the growth in the number of companies for which FOSS has become relevant for their business strategy. In this paper we present a novel approach to estimate effort by considering data from source code management repositories. We apply our model to the OpenStack project, a FOSS project with more than 1,000 authors, in which several tens of companies cooperate. Based on data from its repositories and together with the input from a survey answered by more than 100 developers, we show that the model offers a simple, but sound way of obtaining software development estimations with bounded margins of error.Gregorio Robles, Carlos Cervig on and Jes us M. Gonz alez-Barahona, project SobreSale (TIN2011-28110). and The work of Daniel Izquierdo has been funded in part by the Torres Quevedo program (PTQ-12-05577

Cool dwarfs in wide multiple systems. Paper 6: A curious quintuple system of a compact Sun-like triple and a close pair of an M dwarf and a very cool white dwarf at a wide separation

The system WDS 16329+0315 is an old, nearby quintuple physical system in the thick Galactic disc formed by a close-resolved, triple primary of solar metallicity, namely HD 149162, and a very wide, common proper motion, secondary pair, formed by the mid-M dwarf G-17-23 and the white dwarf LSPM J1633+0311S. We present an exhaustive astrometric and photometric data compilation of the system, including Gaia DR2 parallaxes and proper motions, and the first analysis of the nature of the faintest component. LSPM J1633+0311S (HD 149162 C) is a very cool white dwarf with an effective temperature of only about 5500 K, near the coolest end of the grid of theoretical models.Comment: The Observatory, in press, to appear in December 201

Beyond A/B Testing: Sequential Randomization for Developing Interventions in Scaled Digital Learning Environments

Randomized experiments ensure robust causal inference that are critical to effective learning analytics research and practice. However, traditional randomized experiments, like A/B tests, are limiting in large scale digital learning environments. While traditional experiments can accurately compare two treatment options, they are less able to inform how to adapt interventions to continually meet learners' diverse needs. In this work, we introduce a trial design for developing adaptive interventions in scaled digital learning environments -- the sequential randomized trial (SRT). With the goal of improving learner experience and developing interventions that benefit all learners at all times, SRTs inform how to sequence, time, and personalize interventions. In this paper, we provide an overview of SRTs, and we illustrate the advantages they hold compared to traditional experiments. We describe a novel SRT run in a large scale data science MOOC. The trial results contextualize how learner engagement can be addressed through inclusive culturally targeted reminder emails. We also provide practical advice for researchers who aim to run their own SRTs to develop adaptive interventions in scaled digital learning environments

Polarization of the changing-look quasar J1011+5442

If the disappearance of the broad emission lines observed in changing-look quasars were caused by the obscuration of the quasar core through moving dust clouds in the torus, high linear polarization typical of type 2 quasars would be expected. We measured the polarization of the changing-look quasar J1011+5442 in which the broad emission lines have disappeared between 2003 and 2015. We found a polarization degree compatible with null polarization. This measurement suggests that the observed change of look is not due to a change of obscuration hiding the continuum source and the broad line region, and that the quasar is seen close to the system axis. Our results thus support the idea that the vanishing of the broad emission lines in J1011+5442 is due to an intrinsic dimming of the ionizing continuum source that is most likely caused by a rapid decrease in the rate of accretion onto the supermassive black hole.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics Letter