Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung von Ausgleichszahlungen auf den EU-Getreidemarkt

The proposals for reforming the Common Agricultural Policy within the Mid Term Review of the European Commission fueled the discussion about the future of direct payments to farmers. The EU Commission recommends a decoupling of animal and area payments from the production by granting these direct payments as a payment claim per hectare of eligible farm land. However, introducing area tied payments the intended shift of payments “from the produce to the producer†will not take place, but instead an increased transfer of payments to land owners seems likely. This study therefore analyses the impacts of changing the area payments for grand cultures into person-tied payments on the cereals market of the European Union. For the assessment of impacts homogenous natural locations are clustered. The clustering is based on the regional reference yields for cereals and the share of arable land of total agricultural area in different farm types of the regions. For these production locations total production costs for cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops are calculated as a function of the farm size in order to estimate a cost reduction potential subject to structural changes within agriculture. The main results are the following: 1) Prerequisites are good for the EU to cultivate cereals since a major part of the production is located in highly competitive regions. Thus the EU would remain a net exporter of cereals even producing under world market conditions. However, maintaining the intervention price system while abolishing the set-aside obligation could lead to an uncontrolled increase of cereal stocks. 2) Even on highly competitive locations a significant structural change is required in order to reduce costs and to yield profits without area payments. Depending on the development of the world market prices for cereals the model calculations find a reduction of the work force between 20 000 and 50 000 labor units. 3) Without area payments the profits per hectare and thus the rents would decrease notably and therefore result in a corresponding income loss for land owners. An exclusive granting of payment claims to the producers would in particular affect former farmers, whose rental incomes contribute substantially to their pension plans.Common Agricultural Policy, EU Cereal Market, Decoupling, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Koppelung agrarökonomischer und hydrologischer Modelle

The objective of the paper is to show the potential of interdisciplinary model networks consisting of agricultural economic and natural science models performing integrated impact assessments of agri-environmental policies. The potentials are exemplified using a coupling of the agricultural sector model RAUMIS with the hydrological models GROWA98 and WEKU in the scope of diffuse agricultural nitrogen immission into waterbodies. A brief classification of applied indicators is given. A key element for policy impact analyses are the relationships between the environmental indicator categories Driving Force, State and Response. The major relationships within this environmental scope as well as the modeling are explained. The presented model network represents a first area wide, regionally differentiated, consistent link-up between the Driving Force indicator “nitrogen balance surplusâ€, the State indicator “nitrogen(nitrate)concentration†and the response indicators. The results show that due to the local characteristics quite different shares of the agricultural nitrogen surplus finally enters the ground and surface waters. Hence, assessing the trade-offs of agri-environmental water protection measures requires an inclusion of natural local characteristics. The integrated consideration of the complex relationships and a comprehensive implementation of local characteristics allows to develop more efficient water pollution control measures.model-based policy consulting, interdisciplinary model networks, agricultural sector model, diffuse agricultural nitrogen immissions, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy,

Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Beschlüsse

Zusammenfassung: Der Agrarministerrat hat im November 2008 zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) eine politische Einigung erzielt. Das Ziel der Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, aufbauend auf einer Wirkungsanalyse der Kommissionsvorschläge zum HC, die Konsequenzen der HC-Beschlüsse mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) im Vergleich zu einer Referenzsituation im Zieljahr 2015 zu untersuchen. In der Referenzsituation wird eine langfristig positive Entwicklung im Agrarbereich unterstellt. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird in Deutschland nach den Modellergebnissen die Milcherzeugung nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % im Vergleich zur Baseline ausgedehnt, infolgedessen der Erzeugerpreis um 8 % sinkt. Die Ausdehnung erfolgt vor allem in Regionen mit hoher Produktionsdichte, so dass sich der regionale Konzentrationsprozess fortsetzt. Die Betriebseinkommen gehen im Bundesdurchschnitt um 4 % zurück; in Milchviehbetrieben um bis zu ca. 11 %. Negative Einkommensentwicklungen der Milchvieh haltenden Betriebe lassen sich abfedern, wenn die eingeführten Milchbegleitmaßnahmen genutzt werden. Das dafür avisierte Mittelvolumen von 300 Mio. Euro aus der zusätzlichen Modulation leistet dazu einen nicht unerheblichen Beitrag. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- Summary: In November 2008 the EU agriculture ministers reached a political agreement on the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The goal of the study, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, is to analyse the impacts of the HC agreement with the help of the Modelling Network of agricultural economics institutes of vTI, as well as with a statistical evaluation of the EU-wide Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) in comparison to a baseline in 2015. In the baseline a positive development in the agricultural sector is assumed in the long run. Against this background according to the model results, milk production will expand by about 6 % in Germany after elimination of the milk quota regulations. This implies a decline in the market price of 8 % against the baseline. The expansion of production occurs particularly in high density production areas, so that the regional concentration process continues. Farm income drops on national average by about 4 %, in dairy farms by about 11 %. The accompanying measures in the dairy sector can help alleviate negative income effects on dairy farms if they are used accordingly. The scheduled funding of 300 million Euro obtained from the additional modulation makes a considerable contribution for this purpose.Health Check, Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik, modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung, Common Agricultural Policy, model-based impact analyses, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q12, Q15, Q18,

Health Check der EU-Agrarpolitik - Auswirkungen der Legislativvorschläge

Zusammenfassung: Die Europäische Kommission hat Mitte Mai 2008 Legislativvorschläge zum Health Check (HC) der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik (GAP) vorgelegt. Das Ziel der durchgeführten Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Verbraucherschutz ist es, die Wirkungen der HC-Vorschläge mit Hilfe des Modellverbundes der vTI-Agrarökonomie sowie mit einer statistischen Auswertung des EU-Testbetriebsnetzes (FADN) zu analysieren. Die Auswirkungen der HC-Vorschläge wurden in einer komparativ-statischen Betrachtung gegenüber einem Referenzszenario im Zieljahr 2015 analysiert. Nach den Modellberechnungen wird die Milcherzeugung in Deutschland nach Auslaufen der Quotenregelung um 6 % ausgedehnt. Dies impliziert ein Absinken des Marktpreises um 8 %. Die Ausdehnung erfolgt vor allem in Regionen mit hoher Produktionsdichte, so dass sich der regionale Konzentrationsprozess fortsetzt. Die Betriebseinkommen gehen im Bundesdurchschnitt um 5-7 % zurück; in Milchviehbetrieben um ca. 10 %. Höhere Einbußen sind durch die stärkere Kürzung der Direktzahlungen infolge der progressiven Modulation in Großbetrieben zu erwarten. Insgesamt stellen die HC-Vorschläge eine zu bewältigende Herausforderung für die deutsche Landwirtschaft dar, wenn die Möglichkeiten zur Ausgestaltung der Begleitmaßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene genutzt werden. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- Summary: In May 2008, the European Commission presented legislative proposals for a Health Check (HC) of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The goal of the study, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, is to analyse the impacts of the HC proposal with the help of the Modelling Network of agricultural economics institutes of vTI, as well as with a statistical evaluation of the EU-wide Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The impacts of the HC proposal are analysed within a comparative-static approach vs. a reference scenario in the target year 2015. According to the model results, milk production will expand by about 6 % in Germany after elimination of the milk quota regulations. This implies a decline in the market price of 8 %. The expansion of production occurs particularly in high density production areas, so that the regional concentration process continues. Farm income drops on average of 5 %, in dairy farms by about 10 %. Significant income losses can be expected for large farms due to above-average reductions in direct payments as a result of progressive modulation. Overall, the HC proposals present a challenge that German agriculture can cope with, if the possibilities for shaping the accompanying measures at the national level are used accordingly.Health Check, Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik, modellgestützte Politikfolgenabschätzung, Common Agricultural Policy, model-based impact analyses, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q12, Q15, Q18,

Approaches for assessing the impacts of the Rural Development Programmes in the context of multiple intervening factors

The Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) provides a single framework for monitoring and evaluation of all EU Rural Development Programmes (RDP) in the current programming period (2007-2013). It provides continuity from previous periods and constitutes a significant simplification as regards assessment of results and impacts, while at the same time offering greater flexibility to Member States. The European Evaluation Network for Rural Development has published a Working Paper on Approaches for assessing the impacts of the Rural Development Programmes in the context of multiple intervening factors. The aim of the Working Paper is to inspire and to encourage programme evaluators, not to restrict or constrain them. From a methodological perspective, the three common socio-economic impact indicators of the CMEF (economic growth, employment creation, labour productivity) are more closely related than the four common environmental impact indicators (reversing biodiversity decline, maintenance of High Nature Value faming and forestry, improvement in water quality, contribution to combating climate change).assessment of impacts, Rural Development Programmes, policy evaluation, EU policy, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Auswirkungen einer Entkopplung von Ausgleichszahlungen auf den EU-Getreidemarkt

The proposals for reforming the Common Agricultural Policy within the Mid Term Review of the European Commission fueled the discussion about the future of direct payments to farmers. The EU Commission recommends a decoupling of animal and area payments from the production by granting these direct payments as a payment claim per hectare of eligible farm land. However, introducing area tied payments the intended shift of payments “from the produce to the producer” will not take place, but instead an increased transfer of payments to land owners seems likely. This study therefore analyses the impacts of changing the area payments for grand cultures into person-tied payments on the cereals market of the European Union. For the assessment of impacts homogenous natural locations are clustered. The clustering is based on the regional reference yields for cereals and the share of arable land of total agricultural area in different farm types of the regions. For these production locations total production costs for cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops are calculated as a function of the farm size in order to estimate a cost reduction potential subject to structural changes within agriculture. The main results are the following: 1) Prerequisites are good for the EU to cultivate cereals since a major part of the production is located in highly competitive regions. Thus the EU would remain a net exporter of cereals even producing under world market conditions. However, maintaining the intervention price system while abolishing the set-aside obligation could lead to an uncontrolled increase of cereal stocks. 2) Even on highly competitive locations a significant structural change is required in order to reduce costs and to yield profits without area payments. Depending on the development of the world market prices for cereals the model calculations find a reduction of the work force between 20 000 and 50 000 labor units. 3) Without area payments the profits per hectare and thus the rents would decrease notably and therefore result in a corresponding income loss for land owners. An exclusive granting of payment claims to the producers would in particular affect former farmers, whose rental incomes contribute substantially to their pension plans

Modellgestützte Abschätzung der regionalen landwirtschaftlichen Landnutzung und Produktion in Deutschland vor dem Hintergrund der „Gesundheitsüberprüfung“ der GAP

The framework conditions surrounding agricultural production in Germany have changed dramatically due to the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) and a sustained increase in agricultural prices. The Common Agricultural Policy, substantially reformed in the Luxemburg Compromise, will be considered in the framework of the “Health Check”. Against this background, the regional developments anticipated in dairy production, beef cattle husbandry and agricultural land use by the year 2015 are analysed with the help of the regionalized agricultural sector model RAUMIS. Simulations on the adaptability of dairy production under different market conditions are carried out with regard to the expiration of the dairy quota regulation. The farming intensity on arable land is generally increasing due to the increase in agricultural prices, the elimination of set aside obligation and the promotion of renewable resource crops. The increasing competitiveness of cash crops is speeding the departure of dairy production from arable crop areas into competitive grassland regions. In contrast, milk production is either constant or reduced on less competitive grassland locations. Among the regions reducing production are, according to the model results, low mountain ranges with high levels of grassland, for example in the Black Forest, in the Schwäbisch Alp, in the Hessian Mountain area in parts of the Eifel and parts of the Hunsrück. In the course of the many decades of milk quota system, a significant milk production potential was deactivated which could play a large role when the quota regulations expire. Based on a calculated “milk equilibrium price” at which the quota amounts are exactly produced, a price increase of ten percent leads to a long term expansion of the milk produced by about six million tons. There is thus no reversal of the successive milk production reductions in the least competitive regions, not even through significantly higher direct payments distributed in the framework of the introduction of the “regional model” in grassland regions, since these are decoupled payments. Should this drop in milk production have negative consequences for other sectors, for example tourism, it is to question, whether specific measures should be developed for the affected regions

EINFLUSS STEIGENDER WELTAGRARPREISE AUF DIE WETTBEWERBSFAHIGKEIT DES ENERGIEMAISANBAUS IN DEUTSCHLAND (German)

Nicht zuletzt aufgrund der weltweit stark zunehmenden Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Rohstoffen zur Biokraftstoffherstellung wird mit einem starken Anstieg der Getreide- und Ölsaatenpreise gerechnet. In diesem Beitrag wurden die Auswirkungen steigender Getreidepreise auf die boomende Biogaserzeugung auf Basis Nachwachsender Rohstoffe in Deutschland mit Hilfe des regionalen Agrarsektormodells RAUMIS untersucht. Bei einem erwarteten Getreidepreisanstieg um 24 % geht die Gärsubstratproduktion gegenüber einer Referenzsituation, in der etwa 1,3 Mio. ha Energiemais angebaut werden, um rund 21 % zurück. Um eine gleich bleibende Gärsubstraterzeugung sicherzustellen, sind von Biogasanlagenbetreibern ca. 12 % höhere Auszahlungspreise für Energiemais zu zahlen. Die Kosten steigen in der Biogasbranche dadurch um rund 245 Mio. Euro, die wegen festgeschriebener EEG-Vergütungen nicht an Verbraucher weitergegeben werden können, sondern nur durch eine Prozessoptimierung kompensiert werden könnten

Deutschland – Energie-Corn-Belt Europas?

The amendment of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in 2004 has established an attractive support of using renewable resources for energy production, which since then has fuelled a rapid expansion of the competitive cropping of energy maize. The regionalised agricultural sector model RAUMIS was applied to calculate expected energy maize production as well as impacts on agricultural land use, production and income. Accordingly, the energy maize acreage rises up to about 1.8 mill hectares in the long run leading to substantial land use changes. The produced energy maize for biogas and power generation respectively is sufficient to provide circa 9% of the current German total electricity generation. In regard to the costs for the current consumer which amount to 4.4 bn € per year compared to electricity on the basis of fossil resources as well as the long term commitment to this specific power generation technology it is strongly recommended to review the measures set out in the EEG with respect to its efficiency to achieve the pursued objectives

EINFLUSS STEIGENDER WELTAGRARPREISE AUF DIE WETTBEWERBSFAHIGKEIT DES ENERGIEMAISANBAUS IN DEUTSCHLAND (German)

Nicht zuletzt aufgrund der weltweit stark zunehmenden Nachfrage nach landwirtschaftlichen Rohstoffen zur Biokraftstoffherstellung wird mit einem starken Anstieg der Getreide- und Ölsaatenpreise gerechnet. In diesem Beitrag wurden die Auswirkungen steigender Getreidepreise auf die boomende Biogaserzeugung auf Basis Nachwachsender Rohstoffe in Deutschland mit Hilfe des regionalen Agrarsektormodells RAUMIS untersucht. Bei einem erwarteten Getreidepreisanstieg um 24 % geht die Gärsubstratproduktion gegenüber einer Referenzsituation, in der etwa 1,3 Mio. ha Energiemais angebaut werden, um rund 21 % zurück. Um eine gleich bleibende Gärsubstraterzeugung sicherzustellen, sind von Biogasanlagenbetreibern ca. 12 % höhere Auszahlungspreise für Energiemais zu zahlen. Die Kosten steigen in der Biogasbranche dadurch um rund 245 Mio. Euro, die wegen festgeschriebener EEG-Vergütungen nicht an Verbraucher weitergegeben werden können, sondern nur durch eine Prozessoptimierung kompensiert werden könnten.Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz - EEG, Energiemais, Agrarsektormodell, Landnutzung., Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,