Efecto de la introducción de IQOS en las ventas de cigarrillos de Philip Morris International en España: un enfoque de descomposición Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index

Objective: Philip Morris International, has already introduced its heated tobacco product, IQOS, in many countries and marketed it on the grounds that it is a less harmful alternative to health. The company claims that its intention is for its brand’s traditional cigarette smokers to replace these with IQOS has rarely been independently tested. Method: Using time series data from September 2016 to June 2020, we analyze whether Heets sales have been accompanied by an improvement in the position of Philip Morris International in the market or if they have merely replaced lost sales of the rest of the brands sold by that tobacco company. Results: Sales of traditional cigarettes of all the brands marketed by PMI have been replaced by IQOS since the introduction of this heated tobacco product in Spain. Almost all of the variations observed in IQOS sales are due to the positioning of this product as a substitute for the range of traditional cigarettes marketed by Philip Morris International. Conclusions: As there is still no consensus that HTPs are explicitly less harmful to health, health authorities must control messages suggesting improved health outcomes thanks to HTP usage when compared to traditional cigarettes. Such messages could generate a false sense of security and lead to an increase in the consumption of tobacco. In Spain Heets in a category that has a lower tax burden than the category of traditional cigarettes. Tax authorities must consider this migration and the impact this may have on tax collection.Objetivo: Philip Morris International ha introducido en muchos países su producto de tabaco calentado, IQOS, y lo ha comercializado con el argumento de que es una alternativa menos dañina para la salud. La compañía afirma que su intención es que los fumadores de cigarrillos tradicionales de su marca los reemplacen con IQOS. Método: Utilizando datos de series temporales de septiembre de 2016 a junio de 2020, analizamos si las ventas de Heets han ido acompañadas de una mejora en la posición de Philip Morris International en el mercado o si simplemente han sustituido a las ventas perdidas del resto de las marcas vendidas por esa compañía tabaquera. Resultados: Las ventas de cigarrillos tradicionales de todas las marcas comercializadas por Philip Morris International han sido sustituidas por IQOS desde la introducción de este producto de tabaco calentado en España. Casi todas las variaciones observadas en las ventas de IQOS se deben al posicionamiento de este producto como sustituto de la gama de cigarrillos tradicionales que comercializa Philip Morris International. Conclusiones: Como todavía no existe consenso en cuanto a que los HTP sean explícitamente menos dañinos para la salud, las autoridades sanitarias deben controlar los mensajes que sugieran mejores resultados en la salud gracias al uso de HTP en comparación con los cigarrillos tradicionales. En España se encuentran en una categoría que tiene una carga fiscal más baja que la de los cigarrillos tradicionales. Las autoridades fiscales deben considerar esta migración y el impacto que puede tener en la recaudación fiscal

Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path

To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, missing a relevant piece of economic drivers. We analyse jointly these interdependencies by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate ”causality path” excluding redundant relationships. Thus, we combine recent developments introduced to estimate the Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels and graphical models searching iteratively for the existing dependencies between a multivariate set of information. Our results provide novel empirical evidence suggesting that monetary policy variables play a leading role in the resulting complex economic system. Furthermore, we do find evidence supporting the role of Total Expenditure as a driver of fiscal policy.Sánchez-Fuentes acknowledges the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (project PID2019-105517RB-I00)

Separating aggregate discouraged and added worker effects: the case of a former transition country

Research background: We analyse the added worker effect (AWE) and the discouraged worker effect (DWE) from an aggregate perspective. The first effect refers to an increase in labour force participation in response to a decrease in the wage rate. The second effect refers to the decision by workers who have been unsuccessful in their job search to leave the labour market or to decrease their labour force participation. For our analysis, we use the case of Poland, a country with a persistently low labour force participation rate. Purpose of the article: While previous studies focused on the net of the two effects, we aim to analyse the two effects both separately and simultaneously. We propose a new approach for analysing the two effects. We generalise and model them as resulting from different shocks: (i) the AWE as the result of a negative wage income shock, and (ii) the DWE as the result of a positive job search time shock. The underlying assumption is that both shocks have at least a transitory effect on the labour force participation rate. However, we also track the potential long-lasting effects of these shocks, and we analyse the reactions of gender and age groups to them. While this approach demonstrates the robustness of our results, it also provides the range of the sensitivity, as it shows that there are large differences in the magnitude of the AWE and the DWE for different labour market cohorts. Methods: We use the multivariate unobserved component model to extract the AWE and the DWE, and we then use VAR models, applying sign and exclusion restrictions to model the underlying shocks. We use quarterly data for Poland in 1995?2019. Most of these data come from the Labour Force Survey, while the rest come from Statistics Poland. Findings & value added: In contrast to previous literature, which analysed only the net effect of the two effects, we model the AWE and the DWE separately. Contrary to the findings of previous research, our approach seems to confirm that both effects are simultaneously present in the labour market, and both effects influence the labour force participation rate. Thus, we find that both effects are significant. Specifically, we show that the AWE is stronger, but transitory; while the DWE is weaker, but long-lasting

El uso de métodos numéricos y su aplicación en EXCEL para el modelo de Oferta y Demanda agregada dinámica

En el presente trabajo, se muestra una aplicación haciendo uso de la hoja de cálculo EXCEL del modelo de oferta y demanda dinámico. La impartición de la asignatura de macroeconomía en los primeros cursos de los grados de ADE y Economía, así como el escaso bagaje matemático y de programación de dichos alumnos en esos cursos, hace que el profesor, a veces, no tenga las herramientas necesarias para un aprovechamiento completo de dicha asignatura por parte del alumnado. En el presente articulo, mostramos una herramienta muy sencilla, para un mejor aprovechamiento por parte tanto del profesor como del alumno del modelo de oferta y demanda agregada dinámico impartido en cualquier curso estándar de Macroeconomía

La Curva de Kuznets y la emisión de CO2 en España, 1850-2008

Este trabajo analiza la existencia de la curva medioambiental de Kuznets utilizando la metodología propuesta por Kejriwal-Perron (2010) con datos que abarcan el último siglo y medio (1850-2008). Nuestros resultados no avalan la existencia de dicha curva para el caso español. Sin embargo, sí podemos señalar cómo la relación entre el crecimiento económico y las emisiones de CO2 ha sido muy distinta a lo largo periodo estudiado. Finalmente, en los últimos 25 años se aprecia un cambio importante en dicha relación, poniendo de manifiesto que la economía española está aproximándose a niveles de emisión de CO2 que en un futuro le permitiría cumplir con la hipótesis señalada por Kuznets.In the present work, we analyze the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve using the methodology proposed by Kejriwal-Perron (2010) with Spanish data from 1950 to 2008. Our results show the non existence of the EKC in Spain. However, we demonstrate that the EKC are unstable across the time, especially during the last 25 years. Finally, the last period confirm that the Spanish economy is in the way to reach the EKC

System dynamics modelling and the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Ecuador (1980-2025)

Is it possible for a country in the process of development to comply with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the medium term? This is question that inspired this study. This paper is an extension of a previous study focused on economic development and CO2 emissions in the coming years in Ecuador (Robalino-L´pez et al., 2013). The main goal of this paper is to analyze whether the EKC hypothesis holds within the period 1980-2025 under four different scenarios. This paper uses co-integration techniques (Stock and Watson, 1993) to test the existence of the EKC hypothesis in Ecuador in the medium term using the Jaunky's specification (Jaunky, 2011). Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfilment of this hypothesis in the medium term. Results do not support the fulfilment of the EKC, nevertheless, our estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future if economic growth is combined with an increase in the use of renewable energies, an improvement of the productive sectoral structure, and the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad and the European regional development fund (FEDER) under project number FIS2011-28738-C02-02, and by Spanish Consolider-Ingenio 2010 (CPANCSD-2007-00042). One of the authors (A.R.L.) gives special thanks to the SENESCYT (Ecuador) and the AUIP (Spain) for the institutional and financial support

The Role of Eonia in the Dynamics of Short-Term Interbank Rates

To signal monetary policies and market expectations, we apply a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model, aiming to analyse the expectations hypothesis of term structure (EHTS), persistence in the Euro OverNight Index Average (Eonia) spread and permanent-transitory decomposition using a novel approach. We use a monthly frequency sample for the 3- month Euribor rate and Eonia rate, covering the period from January 1999 to February 2019. The results obtained confirm the EHTS and show evidence of a high persistence of the spread, which means that shocks may impede effectiveness in monetary policy and that the European Central Bank (ECB) loses control over interest rates. Additionally, according to permanent-transitory decomposition, we determine that the Eonia rate has a permanent component and thus dominates the common trend in the cointegration system. In sum, if the ECB wants to keep the interbank market interest rates under control, it must contemplate the evolution of the Eonia rate

CO2 emissions and causal relationships in the six largest world emitters

This paper aims to analyse and compare the driving forces of the carbon dioxide emissions of the six highest emitters of the world, namely, China, the United States of America, the European Union, India, Russia, and Japan, which are responsible for more than the 67\% of the emissions, during the period 1990-2018. The analysis is based on an enlarged Kaya-LMDI decomposition, considering five driving forces and a Granger causality study. Both techniques allow us to disentangle the relationship among the different driving forces and how they change from country to country. The main conclusion from the Kaya-LMDI analysis is that economic growth has been the main driving force that increases CO$_2$ emissions, and to a much lesser extent, the increase in population in most of the six analysed economies. On the other hand, energy intensity is the main factor for reducing CO$_2$ emissions. Surprisingly enough, the end-use fuel-mix term seldom contributes to the decrease of the emissions, which proves that the use of renewable energy should still be actively promoted. It is worth highlighting the different behaviour observed between the four developed countries and the two most populous developing ones, China and India. The Granger-causality analysis suggests that energy intensity Granger causes GDP in the developed countries, energy intensity also Granger cause CO$_2$ emissions in half of the countries and, GDP Granger causes CO$_2$ emissions only in one case, Japan.This work has been partially supported by the Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad de la Junta de Andalucía (Spain), under Group FQM-370 and by European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), ref. SOMM17/6105/UGR. Resources supporting this work were provided by the CEAFMC and Universidad de Huelva High-Performance Computer (HPC@UHU) funded by ERDF/MINECO project UNHU-15CE-2848

Autoempleo y creación de empleo en la UE-12

This paper examines the co-movement and causality between selfemployment and paid-employment cycles in the EU-12 countries using annual data spanning the years 1983 to 2008. Using different strategies, the causality and correlations at different horizons are used to analyze the dynamics in the paid-employment-self-employment relationship. The paper touches a “hot topic”, since the high European unemployment rate and the ineffectiveness showed by traditional active labour markets policies, have lead in a renewed interest in the promotion of new start-ups as a way of contributing to job creation. In that sense, this article provides some useful guidelines for devising and implementing this policy.Este trabajo examina el co-movimiento y la causalidad entre los ciclos del autoempleo y del empleo asalariado en los países de la UE-12 haciendo uso de datos anuales en el periodo 1983-2008. Utilizando diferentes estrategias, se analizan la causalidad y las correlaciones a diferentes horizontes, para analizar la relación dinámica entre el autoempleo y el empleo asalariado. El artículo toca un tópico de la máxima actualidad, dado que las elevadas tasas de desempleo Europeas y la inefectividad mostrada por las tradicionales políticas activas del mercado de trabajo han generado un renovado interés por la promoción del establecimiento de nuevas empresas como una forma de contribuir a la creación de empleo. En este sentido, este artículo proporciona algunas guías útiles para el diseño e implementación de esta política

Comovement between self-employment and macroeconomic variables : evidence from Spain

The relationship between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables is often at the heart of the debate about the contributions of self-employment to employment and economic growth; examining this relationship is the aim of this article. This article is devoted to the empirical exploration of the comovement and causality between entrepreneurship and economic performance in both directions. This study searches for basic relationships between self-employment and certain macroeconomic variables in Spain using quarterly data from 1980:1 to 2009:4. From this analysis, four key findings emerge: (a) the relation between self-employment and the business cycle differs across two components of self-employment, that is, employers and own-account workers; (b) the existence of a strong bidirectional causality between self-employment and unemployment and GDP; (c) business cycles contain information valuable for predicting today’s employers; and (d) entrepreneurship promotion policies oriented to encourage the emergence of new job creators may be a cornerstone of a new strategy to combat unemployment. These results should be kept in mind when designing entrepreneurship policies