Country Performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad

This study seeks to explain country differences in the performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad. Hypotheses on the relationship between, on one hand, performance at the Olympiads and, on the other, population size and dynamics, economic resources, human capital, schooling quantity and quality, and the political regime are tested with a panel dataset of 97 countries over the period 1993-2006. The analysis distinguishes between crosscountry differences and intra-country differences. Results indicate that macro-conditions explain cross-country differences well but fail to predict changes in performance over time. Thus, long-term differences in country characteristics are associated with the average performance of Olympians.Science Olympiads, Talent in mathematics, Country panel, PISA

Microeconomic Structure determines Macroeconomic Dynamics. Aoki defeats the Representative Agent

Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic collective objects (large individual wealth, highly productive geographical locations, emergent technologies, emergent economic sectors) in which the micro-economic agents self-organize. In particular, we present some theoretical predictions, which also met extensive validation from empirical data in a wide range of systems: - The fractal Levy exponent of the stock market index fluctuations equals the Pareto exponent of the investors wealth distribution. The origin of the macroeconomic dynamics is therefore found in the granularity induced by the wealth / capital of the wealthiest investors. - Economic cycles consist of a Schumpeter 'creative destruction' pattern whereby the maxima are cusp-shaped while the minima are smooth. In between the cusps, the cycle consists of the sum of 2 'crossing exponentials': one decaying and the other increasing. This unification within the same theoretical framework of short term market fluctuations and long term economic cycles offers the perspective of a genuine conceptual synthesis between micro- and macroeconomics. Joining another giant of contemporary science - Phil Anderson - Aoki emphasized the role of rare, large fluctuations in the emergence of macroeconomic phenomena out of microscopic interactions and in particular their non self-averaging, in the language of statistical physics. In this light, we present a simple stochastic multi-sector growth model.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure

Conspiratorial beliefs observed through entropy principles

We propose a novel approach framed in terms of information theory and entropy to tackle the issue of conspiracy theories propagation. We start with the report of an event (such as 9/11 terroristic attack) represented as a series of individual strings of information denoted respectively by two-state variable Ei=+/-1, i=1,..., N. Assigning Ei value to all strings, the initial order parameter and entropy are determined. Conspiracy theorists comment on the report, focusing repeatedly on several strings Ek and changing their meaning (from -1 to +1). The reading of the event is turned fuzzy with an increased entropy value. Beyond some threshold value of entropy, chosen by simplicity to its maximum value, meaning N/2 variables with Ei=1, doubt prevails in the reading of the event and the chance is created that an alternative theory might prevail. Therefore, the evolution of the associated entropy is a way to measure the degree of penetration of a conspiracy theory. Our general framework relies on online content made voluntarily available by crowds of people, in response to some news or blog articles published by official news agencies. We apply different aggregation levels (comment, person, discussion thread) and discuss the associated patterns of entropy change.Comment: 21 page, 14 figure

Age, Occupations, and Opportunities for Older Workers in Germany

Improvement of the labor market situation for the elderly is a declared target in the EU. In this study we derive a model of occupational age structure, its determinants and their impact on employment and re-employment opportunities for older workers. The empirical analysis is based on data from German microcensus and conducted on the level of occupations. We show firstly that education, skills, training requirements and the compensation structure affect employment and re-employment of workers aged 50 and above, though detailed impact differs by gender. And secondly, working conditions and arrangements exert a clear-cut influence on employment and re-employment at older ages. Our findings suggest that future labor market policies should focus on working conditions and arrangement to improve opportunities for older workers.labor force aging, employment, re-employment, gender