Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics:
deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the
interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal
/ intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of
the mezo-economic collective objects (large individual wealth, highly
productive geographical locations, emergent technologies, emergent economic
sectors) in which the micro-economic agents self-organize.
In particular, we present some theoretical predictions, which also met
extensive validation from empirical data in a wide range of systems: - The
fractal Levy exponent of the stock market index fluctuations equals the Pareto
exponent of the investors wealth distribution. The origin of the macroeconomic
dynamics is therefore found in the granularity induced by the wealth / capital
of the wealthiest investors. - Economic cycles consist of a Schumpeter
'creative destruction' pattern whereby the maxima are cusp-shaped while the
minima are smooth. In between the cusps, the cycle consists of the sum of 2
'crossing exponentials': one decaying and the other increasing.
This unification within the same theoretical framework of short term market
fluctuations and long term economic cycles offers the perspective of a genuine
conceptual synthesis between micro- and macroeconomics. Joining another giant
of contemporary science - Phil Anderson - Aoki emphasized the role of rare,
large fluctuations in the emergence of macroeconomic phenomena out of
microscopic interactions and in particular their non self-averaging, in the
language of statistical physics. In this light, we present a simple stochastic
multi-sector growth model.Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure