Remembering James Tobin: Stories Mostly from His Students

James Tobin was renowned as an economist of great distinction. Moreover, his students and colleagues witnessed dimensions of his personality and behavior often unknown to others. Up close, Tobin was a memorable figure who made lasting impressions on those he taught and influenced. This article describes Tobin close up, in the words of his students who became professional economists. Rather than focusing on his research, these stories instead present Tobin the teacher, both inside and out of the classroom, Tobin the person, and Tobin the friend and mentor, painting a picture of a remarkable personality. Exchange rates fluctuate very rapidly, in comparison to the prices of goods and labor. An internationally uniform tax on all spot conversions of one currency into another would reduce these fluctuations. Foreign exchange markets focus strongly on the short run, but this tax would reduce these fluctuations by increasing the cost of such transactions. It throws some sand in the wheels of short-term speculation while increasing the relative advantage of longer-term international investment flows.

A Behavioral Model of Cyclical Dieting

This paper presents a behavioral economics model with bounded rationality to describe an individual¡¯s food consumption choices that lead to weight gain and dieting. Using a physiological relationship determining calories needed to maintain weight, we simulate the food consumption choices of a representative female over a 30 year period. Results show that a diet will reduce weight only temporarily. Recurrence of weight gain leads to cyclical dieting, which reduces the trend rate of weight increase. Dieting frequency is shown to depend on decision period length, dieting costs, and habit persistence.Dieting, Behavioral economics, Weight cycles,

Integrated safety studies of the urate reabsorption inhibitor lesinurad in treatment of gout.

ObjectiveLesinurad (LESU) is a selective urate reabsorption inhibitor approved at 200 mg daily for use with a xanthine oxidase inhibitor (XOI) to treat hyperuricaemia in gout patients failing to achieve target serum urate on XOI. The aim of the study was to investigate the long-term safety of LESU + XOI therapy.MethodsSafety data were pooled from three 12-month phase III (core) trials evaluating LESU 200 and 400 mg/day combined with an XOI (LESU200+XOI and LESU400+XOI), and two 12-month extension studies using descriptive statistics. To adjust for treatment duration, treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were expressed as exposure-adjusted incidence rates (patients with events per 100 person-years).ResultsIn the core studies, exposure-adjusted incidence rates for total and total renal-related TEAEs were comparable for XOI alone and LESU200+XOI but higher with LESU400+XOI. Exposure-adjusted incidence rates for serum creatinine (sCr) elevations ⩾1.5×baseline were 2.9, 7.3 and 18.7, respectively. Resolution (sCr ⩽1.2×baseline) occurred in 75-90% of all events, with 66-75% occurring without any study medication interruption. Major adverse cardiovascular events were 3, 4 and 9 with XOI, LESU200+XOI and LESU400+XOI, respectively. Longer exposure in core+extension studies did not increase rates for any safety signals.ConclusionAt the approved dose of 200 mg once-daily combined with an XOI, LESU did not increase renal, cardiovascular or other adverse events compared with XOI alone, except for sCr elevations. With extended exposure in the core+extension studies, the safety profile was consistent with that observed in the core studies, and no new safety concerns were identified

Can A Rational Choice Framework Make Sense of Anorexia Nervosa?

Can a rational choice modeling framework help broaden our understanding of anorexia nervosa? This question is interesting because anorexia nervosa is a serious health concern, and because of the following issue: could a rational choice approach shed useful light on a condition which appears to involve "choosing" to be ill? We present a model of weight choice and dieting applicable to anorexia nervosa, and the sometimes-associated purging behavior. We also present empirical evidence about factors possibly contributing to anorexia nervosa. We offer this analysis as a consciousness-raising way of thinking about the condition.

Information Problems for Policy Analysis and Forecasting

Good information is required for policy analysis and forecasting. This paper reviews the broad range of information problems that face an analyst or forecaster. Two distinct situations are considered: (1) the need to explain the current structure of an economic sector, and (2) the requirement to predict the effects of structural changes. The difficulties considered include data revisions, conflicting results in published studies, publication biases and possibly inappropriate models and theories. Examples considered include computable general equilibrium analyses and forecasts of the effects of airline deregulation.Forecasting; Information

Sex differences in the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations: a population-based aggregated case-crossover study.

Previous studies assumed a uniform relationship between heat and kidney stone presentations. Determining whether sex and other characteristics modify the temperature dependence of kidney stone presentations has implications for explaining differences in nephrolithiasis prevalence and improving projections of the effect of climate change on nephrolithiasis. We performed an aggregated case-crossover study among 132,597 children and adults who presented with nephrolithiasis to 68 emergency departments throughout South Carolina from 1997 to 2015. We used quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models to estimate sex differences in the cumulative exposure and lagged response between maximum daily wet-bulb temperatures and emergent kidney stone presentations, aggregated at the ZIP-code level. We also explored interactions by age, race, payer, and climate. Compared to 10 °C, daily wet-bulb temperatures at the 99th percentile were associated with a greater increased relative risk (RR) of kidney stone presentations over 10 days for males (RR 1.73; 95% CI 1.56, 1.91) than for females (RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.01, 1.32; interaction P < 0.001). The shape of the lagged response was similar for males and females, with the greatest risk estimated for the 2 days following high temperatures. There were weak differences by age, race, and climatic zone, and no differences by payer status. The estimated risk of presenting emergently with kidney stones within 10 days of high daily wet-bulb temperatures was substantially greater among men than women, and similar between patients with public and private insurance. These findings suggest that the higher risk among males may be due to sexually dimorphic physiologic responses rather than greater exposure to ambient temperatures

Prediction Model and Risk Stratification Tool for Survival in Patients With CKD

Introduction: Because chronic kidney disease (CKD) adversely affects survival, prediction of mortality risk should help to identify individuals requiring therapeutic intervention. The goal of this project was to construct and to validate a risk scoring system and prediction model of the probability of 2-year mortality in a CKD population. Methods: We applied the Woodpecker approach to develop prediction equations using linear, exponential, and combined models. A risk indicator R on a scale of 0 to 10 was calculated as follows: starting with 0, add 0.048 for each year of age above 20, 0.45 for male sex, 0.49 for each stage of CKD over stage 2, 1.04 for proteinuria, 0.72 for smoking history, and 0.49 for each significant comorbidity up to 5. Results: Using R to predict 2-year mortality, the model yielded an area under the receiver operating characterisic curve of 0.83 (95% confidence interval = 0.81−0.86) with 5062 subjects with CKD ≥stage 2 from a National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cohort (1999−2004) having a 3.2% 2-year mortality. The combined expression offered results closest to most actual outcomes for the entire population and for each CKD stage. For those patients with higher risk (R ≥ 4−5, >5−6, and >6), the predicted 2-year mortality rates were 3.8%, 6.4%, and 13.0%, respectively, compared to observed mortality rates of 2.7%, 4.5%, and 13.3%. Conclusion: The risk stratification tool and prediction model of 2-year mortality demonstrated good performance and may be used in clinical practice to quantify the risk of death for individual patients with CKD