Ringing in a new order? Hegemony, hierarchy, and transition in East Asia

This paper examines how to account for the continuing though changing character of US preponderance in the East Asia region; the extent, potential, and meaning of China’s rise; and what non-great powers have to do with it.Executive summaryRegional institutions have been created not only to socialise China, but also to legitimise the United States’ continuing role in East Asia.East Asian regionalism poses a limited challenge to the US-led global order.There remains significant regional demand for the US to define and prioritise public goods and how they are provided, especially in managing conflicts on the Korean peninsula and in the South China Sea.The continuing divorce between China and Japan facilitates US regional leadership.We have witnessed the parallel strategic resurgence of both the US and China in East Asia.East Asian states have been renegotiating the US hegemonic order to incorporate China as a constrained, pro-status quo power.This hierarchical order framework points to urgent strategic choices beyond balancing, bandwagoning and ‘hedging’.Policy recommendations Australia should persuade Washington to recognise China’s legitimate growing interests and to negotiate shared responsibilities for regional order. Australia should help to cultivate regional constituencies to legitimise the US role, and to negotiate acceptable terms for China’s legitimate inclusion. Australia should consult with and learn from the experiences of its East Asian neighbours. Australia should overcome the artificial divide between the economic and security realms in strategy formulation and policy coordination

ASEAN-led Multilateralism and Regional Order: The Great Power Bargain Deficit

The post-Cold War East Asian and Asia-Pacific strategic landscape has been dominated by three factors: 1) the United States’ military preponderance underpinned by its hub-and-spokes San Francisco system of bilateral alliances; 2) China’s seemingly inexorable resurgence economically as well as diplomatically and militarily; and 3) the proliferation of multilateral regional dialogues, initiatives, and institutions, many with the region’s oldest multilateral grouping—the ten-member ASEAN—at their heart. For the majority of scholars and policymakers who work from a de facto realist standpoint and are unsurprised by the determining effects of great powers, alliances, and relative power distribution on regional stability, the seemingly disproportionate impact of the smaller ASEAN states has drawn attention and contention. Do these strategically less significant Southeast Asian states “punch above their weight” in regional affairs because of their unique ability to create new multilateral institutions for security and economic cooperation, or is their rhetoric about the merits of multilateralism and transformative potential of regional institutions and regionalism “cheap” talk and deluded ambition

Southeast Asia's Evolving Security Relations and Strategies

Southeast Asian foreign security priorities have shifted from ensuring regime security and coping with intramural conflicts toward managing wider structural transitions after the Cold War. This has entailed innovation in terms of renovating and expanding security concepts and pragmatically novel strategies vis-�-vis great powers. The imperative for most Southeast Asian states has changed from insulating the subregion from the security dynamics of the wider East Asian context, to integrating and ensuring its place within a wider Asia-Pacific security complex that is in rapid transition. Yet Southeast Asian security strategies may be neither sustainable in their judicious aims of enmeshing the great powers nor adequate in their ambitious goal of brokering a stable new East Asian order

Ringing in a New Order? Hegemony, Hierarchy, and Transition in East Asia

Evelyn Goh, the new Shedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies at the Australian National University examines the changing regional order in contemporary East Asia. Goh argues that the region is defined by the parallel strategic resurgence of both the US and China. These countries have had to negotiate and seek legitimacy for their roles and influence in the region, with with non-great power states playing a key role in driving this process. Rather than balancing or bandwagoning, Goh argues the East Asia region is defined by a negotiated attempt to draw both China and the US into a new regional order

A Strategy Towards Indonesia

This special Centre of Gravity paper features three contributions on Indonesia and its changing relationship with Australia and the world. Evelyn Goh, Greg Fealy and Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto examine the changes in Indonesian foreign policy under President Joko Widodo and pressing challenges such as terrorism and maritime security cooperation. Evelyn Goh, Shedden Professor of Strategic Policy Studies examines the changes in Indonesian foreign policy under President Joko Widodo. She also offers important policy recommendations for Australia that can help work with the new president's maritime focus and deepen US-Indonesia links. Professor Greg Fealy meanwhile highlights a potential relationship destabiliser on the horizon: the rise of Islamic State fighters in Indonesia. He explores how Indonesian politics and society has responded to IS' rise and looks at the limited opportunities for cooperation between Australia and Indonesia. Finally, Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto, a PhD scholar at SDSC, working under Evelyn Goh's supervision examines Indonesia's maritime security focus and offers a bold proposal for improving regional security and helping to ground the bilateral relationship

H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable on Looking for Balance: China, the United States, and Power Balancing in East Asia

Will Asia be the site of the next major global conflict or will Asia’s future continue to be characterized by peace and stability? This question has invited a veritable multitude of arguments and counterarguments during the last two decades as scholars have tried to assess the implications of growing Chinese power for the international system. Some have feared that the rest of Asia will build up its armaments in response to China’s growing strength, creating a dangerous and unstable situation. They have even raised the possibility that the United States might get drawn into Asia’s next war.[1] Others have taken a far more sanguine view of the prospects for peace in the region, contending that China’s neighbors do not necessarily see it as a threat and that growing economic interdependence makes military conflict unlikely.[2]This item was commisioned by H-Diplo/ISS

Factors predicting visual improvement post pars plana vitrectomy for proliferative diabetic retinopathy

誗AIM: To identify factors predicting visual improvement post vitrectomy for sequelae of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). 誗METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of pars plana vitrectomy indicated for sequelae of PDR from Jan. to Dec. 2014 in Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah, Alor Star, Kedah, Malaysia. Data collected included patient demographics, baseline visual acuity ( VA ) and post - operative logMAR best corrected VA at 1y. Data analysis was performed with IBM SPSS Statistics Version 22郾0. 誗RESULTS: A total of 103 patients were included. The mean age was 51郾2y. On multivariable analysis, each preoperative positive deviation of 1 logMAR from a baseline VA of 0 logMAR was associated with a post - operative improvement of 0郾859 logMAR (P < 0郾001). Likewise, an attached macula pre - operatively was associated with a 0郾374 (P = 0郾003) logMAR improvement post vitrectomy. Absence of iris neovascularisation and absence of post - operative complications were associated with a post vitrectomy improvement in logMAR by 1郾126 (P = 0郾001) and 0郾377 ( P = 0郾005 ) respectively. Absence of long - acting intraocular tamponade was associated with a 0郾302 (P = 0郾010) improvement of logMAR post vitrectomy. 誗CONCLUSION: Factors associated with visual improvement after vitrectomy are poor pre-operative VA, an attached macula, absence of iris neovascularisation, absence of post - operative complications and abstaining from use of long - acting intraocular tamponade. A thorough understanding of the factors predicting visual improvement will facilitate decision - making in vitreoretinal surgery

Atopic dermatitis in early life: evidence for at least three phenotypes? Results from the GUSTO study

10.1159/000381342International Archives of Allergy and Immunology1664273-279GUSTO (Growing up towards Healthy Outcomes

House dust mite sensitization, eczema, and wheeze increase risk of shellfish sensitization

Non peer reviewe

Allergic sensitization trajectories to age 8 years in the Singapore GUSTO cohort

Background: Allergic sensitization is linked to allergy development, with early sensitization often associated with worse outcomes. We aimed to identify if distinct allergic sensitization trajectories existed within a diverse and multi-ethnic Asian cohort.Methods: We administered modified ISAAC questionnaires in the first 8 years and conducted skin prick testing at ages 18 months, 3, 5 and 8 years in the Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) cohort. We used latent class analysis to derive allergic sensitization trajectories, and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) to evaluate predictive risk factors and associations with allergic comorbidities.Results: Among 997 children, three trajectories were identified: early food and mite sensitization (16.2%), late mite sensitization (24.2%) and no/low sensitization (59.6%). Early food and mite sensitization was associated with early eczema by 6 months [AOR (95%CI) 4.67 (1.78-12.28)], increased risk of wheeze by 3-8 years (ARR 1.72-1.99) and eczema in the first 8 years of life (ARR 1.87-2.41). Late mite sensitization was associated with female sex [AOR 0.58 (0.35-0.96)], cesar-ean section [AOR 0.54 (0.30-0.98)], early eczema by 6 months [AOR 3.40 (1.38-8.42)], and increased risk of eczema by 18 months [ARR 1.47 (1.03-2.08)] and 8 years [ARR 1.35 (1.05-1.73)].Conclusion: Early onset of eczema and early allergic sensitization were strongly associated. Early sensitization, especially to house dust mites, was associated with increased risks of developing wheeze and eczema, pointing to the importance of developing preventive perinatal interventions and effective therapeutics for sensitized toddlers.Peer reviewe