Antarctic Station Based Seasonal Pressure Reconstructions Since 1905, Part 1: Reconstruction Evaluation

Seasonal mean Antarctic pressures at 17 stations are reconstructed based on the method of principal component regression, employing midlatitude pressure data as predictors. Several reconstruction methods were performed in order to assess the stability and reliability of the reconstructions obtained, including performing the reconstructions over a shorter 30 year window and withholding the remaining data for an independent validation. Generally, there were small differences between the various approaches, but typically reconstructions conducted on data with the trends still present and over the full period of observations achieved the highest skill. Seasonally, reconstruction skill was high in austral summer across the entire Antarctic continent. Reconstructions that employed gridded pressure data over oceans as well as the observations (here termed “pseudoreconstructions”) also performed remarkably well in austral winter. Spatially, the reconstruction skill was highest near the Antarctic Peninsula in all seasons, and weakest in coastal East Antarctica and the Antarctic Interior during austral spring and autumn; the spatial variability of the skill in part reflects the distance to the nearest midlatitude predictor. Nonetheless, for nearly all seasons and locations the observed trends since 1957 were well captured by the reconstructions, as was the low-frequency decadal-scale variability. These results suggest Antarctic pressure observations can be extended throughout the twentieth century with high confidence, especially in summer, allowing for a more precise understanding of the role and magnitude of natural atmospheric circulation variability across Antarctica

Antarctic station-based seasonal pressure reconstructions since 1905: 2. Variability and trends during the twentieth century

The Antarctic seasonal station-based pressure reconstructions evaluated in our companion paper are evaluated here to provide additional knowledge on Antarctic pressure variability during the twentieth century. In the period from 1905 to 1956, we find that the Hadley Centre gridded sea level pressure data set compared the best with our reconstructions, perhaps due to similar methods to estimate pressure without direct observations. The primary focus on the twentieth century Antarctic pressure variability was in summer and winter, as these were the seasons with the highest reconstruction skill. In summer, there is considerable interannual variability that was spatially uniform across all of Antarctica. Notable high pressure anomalies were found in the summers of 1911/1912 and 1925/1926; both summers correspond to negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode as well as El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. In addition, negative summer pressure trends during the last ~40 years across all of Antarctica are unique in the context of 30 year trends throughout the entire twentieth century, suggesting a strong component of anthropogenic forcing on the recent summer trends. In contrast, mean winter pressure is less variable from year to year during the early twentieth century, and there is less similarity between the pressure variations along the Antarctic Peninsula compared to the rest of the continent. No significant pressure trends were found consistently across all Antarctica (although some significant regional trends can be identified), and low-frequency, multidecadal-scale variability appears to dominate the historical pressure variations in this season

Seasonal Antarctic pressure variability during the twentieth century from spatially complete reconstructions and CAM5 simulations

As most permanent observations in Antarctica started in the 1950s, understanding Antarctic climate variations throughout the twentieth century remains a challenge. To address this issue, the non-summer multi-decadal variability in pressure reconstructions poleward of 60°S is evaluated and assessed in conjunction with climate model simulations throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries to understand historical atmospheric circulation variability over Antarctica. Austral autumn and winter seasons show broadly similar patterns, with negative anomalies in the early twentieth century (1905–1934), positive pressure anomalies in the middle twentieth century (1950–1980), and negative pressure anomalies in the most recent period (1984–2013), consistent with concurrent trends in the SAM index. In autumn, the anomalies are significant in the context of estimates of interannual variability and reconstruction uncertainty across most of the Antarctic continent, and the reconstructed patterns agree best with model-generated patterns when the simulation includes the forced response to tropical sea surface temperatures and external radiative forcing. In winter and spring, the reconstructed anomalies are less significant and are consistent with internal atmospheric variability alone. The specific role of tropical SST variability on pressure trends in these seasons is difficult to assess due to low reconstruction skill in the region of strongest tropical teleconnections, the large internal atmospheric variability, and uncertainty in the SST patterns themselves. Indirect estimates of pressure variability, whether through sea ice reconstructions, proxy records, or improved models and data assimilation schemes, will help to further constrain the magnitude of internal variability relative to the forced responses expected from SST trends and external radiative forcing

A twentieth century perspective on summer Antarctic pressure change and variability and contributions from tropical SSTs and ozone depletion

During the late 20th 33 Century, the Antarctic atmospheric circulation has changed and significantly influenced the overall Antarctic climate, through processes including a poleward shift of the circumpolar westerlies. However, little is known about the full spatial pattern of atmospheric pressure over the Antarctic continent prior to 1979. Here we investigate surface pressure changes across the entire Antarctic continent back to 1905 by developing a new summer pressure reconstruction poleward of 60°S. We find that only across East Antarctica are the recent pressures significantly lower than pressures in the early 20th 40 century; we also discern periods of significant positive pressure trends in the early 20th 41 century across the coastal South Atlantic sector of Antarctica. Climate model simulations reveal that both tropical sea surface temperature variability and other radiative forcing mechanisms, in addition to ozone depletion, have played an important role in forcing the recent observed negative trends