Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) contribution to ISMIP6 Greenland using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)

Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise include uncertainties primarily due to the imposed climate forcing and the initial state of the ice sheet model. Several state-of-the-art ice flow models are currently being employed on various grid resolutions to estimate future mass changes in the framework of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). Here we investigate the sensitivity to grid resolution of centennial sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet and study the mechanism at play. We employ the finite-element higher-order Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) and conduct experiments with four different horizontal resolutions, namely 4, 2, 1 and 0.75 km. We run the simulation based on the ISMIP6 core climate forcing from the MIROC5 global circulation model (GCM) under the high-emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and consider both atmospheric and oceanic forcing in full and separate scenarios. Under the full scenarios, finer simulations unveil up to approximately 5 % more sea-level rise compared to the coarser resolution. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat, which is implemented as a series of retreat masks following the ISMIP6 protocol. Without imposed retreat under atmosphere-only forcing, the resolution dependency exhibits an opposite behaviour with approximately 5 % more sea-level contribution in the coarser resolution. The sea-level contribution indicates a converging behaviour below a 1 km horizontal resolution. A driving mechanism for differences is the ability to resolve the bedrock topography, which highly controls ice discharge to the ocean. Additionally, thinning and acceleration emerge to propagate further inland in high resolution for many glaciers. A major response mechanism is sliding, with an enhanced feedback on the effective normal pressure at higher resolution leading to a larger increase in sliding speeds under scenarios with outlet glacier retreat

Factors controlling the last interglacial climate as simulated by LOVECLIM1.3

The last interglacial (LIG), also identified to the Eemian in Europe, began at approximately 130 kyr BP and ended at about 115 kyr BP (before present). More and more proxy-based reconstructions of the LIG climate are becoming more available even though they remain sparse. The major climate forcings during the LIG are rather well known and therefore models can be tested against paleoclimatic data sets and then used to better understand the climate of the LIG. However, models are displaying a large range of responses, being sometimes contradictory between them or with the reconstructed data. Here we would like to investigate causes of these differences. We focus on a single climate model, LOVECLIM, and we perform transient simulations over the LIG, starting at 135 kyr BP and run until 115 kyr BP. With these simulations, we test the role of the surface boundary conditions (the time-evolution of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets) on the simulated LIG climate and the importance of the parameter sets (internal to the model, such as the albedos of the ocean and sea ice), which affect the sensitivity of the model. The magnitude of the simulated climate variations through the LIG remains too low compared to reconstructions for climate variables such as surface air temperature. Moreover, in the North Atlantic, the large increase in summer sea surface temperature towards the peak of the interglacial occurs too early (at ∼128 kyr BP) compared to the reconstructions. This feature as well as the climate simulated during the optimum of the LIG, between 131 and 121 kyr BP, does not depend on changes in surface boundary conditions and parameter sets. The additional freshwater flux (FWF) from the melting NH ice sheets is responsible for a temporary abrupt weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which causes a strong global cooling in annual mean. However, the changes in the configuration (extent and albedo) of the NH ice sheets during the LIG only slightly impact the simulated climate. Together, configuration of and FWF from the NH ice sheets greatly increase the magnitude of the temperature variations over continents as well as over the ocean at the beginning of the simulation and reduce the difference between the simulated climate and the reconstructions. Lastly, we show that the contribution from the parameter sets to the climate response is actually very modest

The Draft Restatement: A Critique from a Securities Regulation Perspective

For the past several years, the American Law Institute has been preparing a proposed revision of the Restatement (Second) of the Foreign Relations Law of the United States (“Draft Restatement”). This article is a critique from a securities regulation perspective of the Draft Restatement\u27s sections 402, 403, 416, 418, 419, 420 and 431.1 In short, the Draft Restatement departs substantially from existing law. It would add dangerous vagueness and uncertainty to the jurisdictional analysis used to determine whether the United States securities laws will be applied to transnational securities activities. In particular, the complicated balancing inquiry required under the Draft would increase litigation by introducing new issues into the jurisdictional analysis and by removing the certainty created by past court decisions. The Draft would make it substantially more difficult to apply United States securities laws where their application is necessary, appropriate and noncontroversial. In addition, the Draft\u27s restrictions on access to information located abroad could impair effective and even-handed enforcement of the securities laws. The Draft Restatement would also make it more difficult for the Securities and Exchange Commission to take summary action which may be necessary for the protection of securities markets in the United States. Section 1905 of the American Law Institute\u27s Federal Securities Code (“Code”), by contrast, retains the benefits of current judicial analysis by substantially codifying that reasoning, while eliminating the drawback of its case-by-case development. Although Section 1905 of the Code was drafted in the context of a general revision of the securities laws, it is a more accurate and workable “restatement” of foreign relations law. The Code also furthers the investor protection purposes of the securities laws because it takes a broader view of the appropriate application of United States securities laws than the Draft Restatement. This article compares and contrasts the analysis used under current law with the analysis that would be used under the Code and under the Draft Restatement. Part I consists of a summary review of current judicial analysis of application of United States law, a comparison of that analysis with that of the Code and the Draft Restatement and illustrations of the differences using five examples. Part II sets forth our principal concerns about the Draft Restatement\u27s approach to application of United States law. Part III critically reviews the Draft\u27s approach to access to information located abroad and the judicial and administrative enforcement mechanisms available to the Commission

Effect of higher-order stress gradients on the centennial mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet

We use a three-dimensional thermo-mechanically coupled model of the Greenland ice sheet to assess the effects of marginal perturbations on volume changes on centennial timescales. The model is designed to allow for five ice dynamic formulations using different approximations to the force balance. The standard model is based on the shallow ice approximation for both ice deformation and basal sliding. A second model version relies on a higher-order Blatter/Pattyn type of core that resolves effects from gradients in longitudinal stresses and transverse horizontal shearing, i.e. membrane-like stresses. Together with three intermediate model versions, these five versions allow for gradually more dynamic feedbacks from membrane stresses. Idealised experiments are conducted on various resolutions to compare the time-dependent response to imposed accelerations at the marine ice front. If such marginal accelerations are to have an appreciable effect on total mass loss on a century timescale, a fast mechanism to transmit such perturbations inland is required. While the forcing is independent of the model version, inclusion of direct horizontal coupling allows the initial speed-up to reach several tens of kilometres inland. Within one century, effects from gradients in membrane stress alter the inland signal propagation and transmit additional dynamic thinning to the ice sheet interior. But the centennial overall volume loss differs only by some percents from the standard model, as the dominant response is a diffusive inland propagation of geometric changes. For the experiments considered, this volume response is even attenuated by direct horizontal coupling. The reason is a faster adjustment of the sliding regime by instant stress transmission in models that account for the effect of membrane stresses. Ultimately, horizontal coupling decreases the reaction time to perturbations at the ice sheet margin. These findings suggest that for modelling the mass evolution of a large-scale ice sheet, effects from diffusive geometric adjustments dominate effects from successively more complete dynamic approaches

Investigation of Blade-row Flow Distributions in Axial-flow-compressor Stage Consisting of Guide Vanes and Rotor-blade Row

A 30-inch tip-diameter axial-flow compressor stage was investigated with and without rotor to determine individual blade-row performance, interblade-row effects, and outer-wall boundary-layer conditions. Velocity gradients at guide-vane outlet without rotor approximated design assumptions, when the measured variation of leaving angle was considered. With rotor in operation, Mach number and rotor-blade effects changed flow distribution leaving guide vanes and invalidated design assumption of radial equilibrium. Rotor-blade performance correlated interpolated two-dimensional results within 2 degrees, although tip stall was indicated in experimental and not two-dimensional results. Boundary-displacement thickness was less than 1.0 and 1.5 percent of passage height after guide vanes and after rotor, respectively, but increased rapidly after rotor when tip stall occurred

Improved convergence and stability properties in a three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model

We present a finite difference implementation of a three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model. In comparison to a conventional centred difference discretisation it enhances both numerical stability and convergence. In order to achieve these benefits the discretisation of the governing force balance equation makes extensive use of information on staggered grid points. Using the same iterative solver, a centred difference discretisation that operates exclusively on the regular grid serves as a reference. The reprise of the ISMIP-HOM experiments indicates that both discretisations are capable of reproducing the higher-order model inter-comparison results. This setup allows a direct comparison of the two numerical implementations also with respect to their convergence behaviour. First and foremost, the new finite difference scheme facilitates convergence by a factor of up to 7 and 2.6 in average. In addition to this decrease in computational costs, the accuracy for the resultant velocity field can be chosen higher in the novel finite difference implementation. Changing the discretisation also prevents build-up of local field irregularites that occasionally cause divergence of the solution for the reference discretisation. <br><br> The improved behaviour makes the new discretisation more reliable for extensive application to real ice geometries. Higher accuracy and robust numerics are crucial in time dependent applications since numerical oscillations in the velocity field of subsequent time steps are attenuated and divergence of the solution is prevented

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheet–climate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change

Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial

Large climate perturbations occurred during the transition between the penultimate glacial period and the Last Interglacial (Termination II), when the ice sheets retreated from their glacial configuration. Here we investigate the impact of ice sheet changes and associated freshwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial. The period from 135 to 120 kyr BP is simulated with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3 with prescribed evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland ice sheet, and the other Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Variations in meltwater fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets lead to North Atlantic temperature changes and modifications of the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. By means of the interhemispheric see-saw effect, variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation also give rise to temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere, which are additionally modulated by the direct impact of Antarctic meltwater fluxes into the Southern Ocean. Freshwater fluxes from the melting Antarctic ice sheet lead to a millennial timescale oceanic cold event in the Southern Ocean with expanded sea ice as evidenced in some ocean sediment cores, which may be used to constrain the timing of ice sheet retreat