Social democracy and full employment

Full employment was the centrepiece of the economic policy of social democracy in the post-war period. Whilst the role of Keynesianism in policy making may be exaggerated, it offered the prospect of maintaining full employment without any section of society having to pay. Problems with the foreign balance and with the budget deficits, however, may require that some part of society has to pay with reduced consumption for full employment. This will tend to sharpen the distributive conflicts which, as Kalecki argued, are endemic to full employment capitalism and which eventually rendered it unsustainable by undermining profitability and the dynamism of private investment. The demand necessary to sustain full employment can be maintained by a balanced budget expansion provided the political support can be secured for the higher taxation and provided the institutions for containing distributional conflict can be developed. -- Vollbeschäftigung war das Hauptziel sozialdemokratischer Wirtschaftspolitik in der Nachkriegsära. Auch wenn die Rolle des Keynesianismus hinsichtlich der praktischen Politik überschätzt werden könnte, so stellte er doch in Aussicht, Vollbeschäftigung zu erhalten, ohne daß dies auf Kosten eines Teils der Gesellschaft ging. Im Falle einer unausgeglichenen Außenhandelsbilanz und bei Haushaltsdefiziten könnte es natürlich dazu kommen, daß für einige Gruppen in der Gesellschaft Vollbeschäftigung nur um den Preis eines verminderten Konsumniveaus zu haben ist. Dies könnte dann zu einer Verschärfung von Verteilungskonflikten führen, die, so Kalecki, zu einem Vollbeschäftigungskapitalismus gehören und die schließlich ein Stadium erreichen könnten, in dem durch Aushöhlung der Profitabilität und der Investitionsdynamik die Selbsterhaltungskräfte verschwänden. Die für die Sicherung der Vollbeschäftigung notwendige Nachfrage kann durch eine ausgewogene Budgetausweitung erhalten bleiben, vorausgesetzt, die notwendige politische Unterstützung für eine höhere Besteuerung kann gesichert und institutionelle Regelungen für eine Eindämmung der Verteilungskonflikte können entwickelt werden.

Employment Inequalities

This paper documents the employment disadvantage faced by the less qualified part of the labor force and examines the factors that influence the differing extent of this disadvantage across OECD countries. We argue that employment rates for quartiles of the population ranked by educational qualification provide the best measure of employment disadvantage. We show that differences in these employment rates for the most- and least-educated quartiles vary substantially within Europe, but are not on average higher than those in the USA. The least qualified suffer the greatest employment disadvantage in countries in which the overall employment rates are low and, for men, the literacy test scores for the least qualified are relatively low. A high level of imports from the South appears to be associated with greater employment disadvantage, but there is no discernible tendency for a high level of wage dispersion, low benefits, or weak employment protection legislation to be associated with greater employment disadvantage. Labor market flexibility has not been the route by which some OECD countries have managed to minimize the employment disadvantage of the least qualified.

"Employment Inequalities"

This paper documents the employment disadvantage faced by the less qualified part of the labor force and examines the factors that influence the differing extent of this disadvantage across OECD countries. We argue that employment rates for quartiles of the population ranked by educational qualification provide the best m easure of employment disadvantage. We show that differences in these employment rates for the most- and least-educated quartiles vary substantially within Europe, but are not on average higher than those in the USA. The least qualified suffer the greatest employment disadvantage in countries in which the overall employment rates are low and, for men, the literacy test scores for the least qualified are relatively low. A high level of imports from the South appears to be associated with greater employment disadvantage, but there is no discernible tendency for a high level of wage dispersion, low benefits, or weak employment protection legislation to be associated with greater employment disadvantage. Labor market flexibility has not been the route by which some OECD countries have managed to minimize the employment disadvantage of the least qualified

Structural change under New Labour

The paper examines specific features of structural change in the UK since 1997, contrasting the decline in industrial jobs with the rise in a variety of service jobs. It examines the proximate causes of structural change, in particular whether the chronically slow growth of manufacturing output in the 1980s has persisted. The implications of this structural change are considered, particularly the effects on the balance of payments and regional employment patterns. The paper suggests that the main impact of government policies on regional employment may have been through the direct and multiplier effects of public expenditure

Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness

This paper investigates the relationship between export market shares and relative unit labour costs using a long panel of twelve manufacturing industries across fourteen OECD countries. We ask two questions: (a) how sensitive are export market shares to changes in relative costs and (b) what determines the degree of sensitivity? Although both costs and embodied technology are important, we find that neither can fully explain changing export positions. We explore whether the residual country-specific trends might be linked to Ѥeep' structural features of economies such as human capital investment and national ownership patterns. On the second question, the sensitivity of exports to labour costs is lower in high tech industries and in core ERM countries. The industry elasticities have increased over time, especially in industries subject to increasing product market competition. We discuss the implications of these findings for European Monetary Union.

Are Protective Labor Market Institutions Really at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Perspective on the Statistical Evidence

This report debunks the myth that labor market protections, such as unions and unemployment benefits, are responsible for high European unemployment rates.

Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: Findings From a Multinomial Ordered Probit Model

A multinomial ordered probit model is used to predict post-release performance in a sample of Queensland prisoners released between January 1992 and December 1994. Post-release performance is defined in terms of the seriousness of parole breaches and/or reoffences over the length of the parole period or until April 1996. The paper examines two issues. First, it evaluates the statistical significance of a number of custodial and socioeconomic variables on the likelihood of a parole breach or reoffence. Factors analysed include family composition, age, occupation, ethnicity, the number of events in custody, the number of prison violations and the length of sentence of the most recent custodial episode. Second, the study compares the role of these factors in determining either breaches of parole or the more serious outcome of readmittance through criminal activity. All other things being equal, the elasticity of readmission with respect to the set of explanatory variables varies markedly according to whether readmission is through a parole breach or through actual recidivist behaviour