Incident infection estimates based on models adjusting for possible selection bias.

<p>S₁, no adjustment; S₂, model with adjustment for selection bias exerted by seeking early testing after a suspected exposure; S₃, model with adjustment for seeking medical attention due to symptoms of acute HIV infection. Refer to Methods for further explanations. The blue curve without symbols on top in each panel shows the number of HIV notifications.</p

Characteristics of the 3’851 HIV notifications received 2008–2013.

<p>IQR, interquartile range;</p><p>* all infected abroad;</p><p>** predominantly infected abroad</p><p>Characteristics of the 3’851 HIV notifications received 2008–2013.</p

HIV-1 infections ruled incident by the 10 best-performing Inno-Lia algorithms.

<p>Analysis restricted to notifications that contained Inno-Lia results.</p><p>HIV-1 infections ruled incident by the 10 best-performing Inno-Lia algorithms.</p

Number of HIV notifications and incident HIV infections over time, as obtained by performance-based and window-based incident infection estimates.

<p>Panels on top labeled “All” show the data for all patients, lower panels show the data per risk category (MSM, men who have sex with men; HET, heterosexual transmission; IDU, intravenous drug use; UNK, unknown transmission pathway). In all panels, the blue curve with the circle symbols denotes the annual number of HIV notifications, and the black curve without symbols shows the estimated number of incident infections (means and their 95% confidence intervals). The top panels also show the results obtained with the 10 individual algorithms (grey lines in the background).</p

Incident infection estimates based on models adjusting for possible selection bias.

<p>S₁, no adjustment; S₂, model with adjustment for selection bias exerted by seeking early testing after a suspected exposure; S₃, model with adjustment for seeking medical attention due to symptoms of acute HIV infection. Refer to Methods for further explanations. The blue curve without symbols on top in each panel shows the number of HIV notifications.</p

Incident HIV-1 infection estimates utilizing the performance-based method.

<p>Incident HIV-1 infection estimates utilizing the performance-based method.</p

Characteristics of the 527 patients with incident HIV-1 infection.

<p>Abbreviations: SFOPH, Swiss Federal Office of Public Health; MSM, men who have sex with men; HET, heterosexual; IVDU, intravenous drug use; OTH, other; IQR, interquartile range.</p

Comparison of window-based and performance-based incident infection rates (IIR) in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications.

<p>A) Mean IIR-W and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the 25 algorithms of <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0071662#pone-0071662-t003" target="_blank">Table 3</a>. The numbers at the bottom of the panel indicate the means of the IIR, numbers in italics on top of the curves denote the P values for the differences according to t-test. B) Mean IIR-P and their 95% CI derived from the 10 best-performing algorithms (Algs 4.1, 7, 8.1, 9, 11.1, 11.2, 12.1, 13, 15, 15.1), as determined in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0071662#pone.0071662-Schupbach3" target="_blank">[19]</a>. Shown are the IIR-P curves of three models calculated with diagnostic sensitivities S₁, S₂, and S₃, as defined under Methods; see also <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0071662#pone.0071662.s003" target="_blank">Supporting Material S3</a>. C) Individual IIR-W of all 25 algorithms. D) Individual IIR-P of all 25 algorithms based on the diagnostic sensitivities S₁.</p

Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) among the 748 HIV notifications July 05–June 06.

1)<p>Representing the specificity in infections >12 months; taken with permission from <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0071662#pone.0071662-Schupbach3" target="_blank">[19]</a>.</p>2)<p>BED data taken with permission from <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0071662#pone.0071662-Schupbach1" target="_blank">[17]</a>.</p><p>SD, standard deviation; CV%, coefficient of variation shown as percentage; CI, confidence interval.</p

Correlation of window length and diagnostic sensitivity of the algorithms.

<p>The diagnostic sensitivity data represent the uncorrected raw sensitivity S₀, as determined in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0071662#pone.0071662-Schupbach3" target="_blank">[19]</a>.</p