21 research outputs found

    The scaled [alpha]-Winsorized estimate of exponential scale for censored data: an analysis based on two influence functions

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    A new view of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of exponential scale for censored data is presented. This is done by adapting Reid's (Ann. Statist. 9 (1981) 78) approach for obtaining the two influence functions (IF) for the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival function; one for uncensored and one for censored data, respectively. The MLEs two IFs are derived. Via this analysis, we propose a new robust estimator, the scaled [alpha]-Winsorized estimator (WE). Under Type II censoring, the WE is the MLE and, hence, is asymptotically efficient in that case. Its two IFs are bounded; hence,WE is B-robust. Its breakdown point is [alpha]. A comparison is made with respect to asymptotic bias and mean square error at contaminated exponential and Weibull survival models.Bivariate functionals B-robust Exponential MLE Random censoring von Mises expansion Winsorized mean

    Simultaneous tests for homogeneity of two zero-inflated (beta) populations

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    <p>Motivated by an example in marine science, we use Fisher’s method to combine independent likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) and asymptotic independent score tests to assess the equivalence of two zero-inflated Beta populations (mixture distributions with three parameters). For each test, test statistics for the three individual parameters are combined into a single statistic to address the overall difference between the two populations. We also develop non parametric and semiparametric permutation-based tests for simultaneously comparing two or three features of unknown populations. Simulations show that the likelihood-based tests perform well for large sample sizes and that the statistics based on combining LRT statistics outperforms the ones based on combining score test statistics. The permutation-based tests have overall better performance in terms of both power and type I error rate. Our methods are easy to implement and computationally efficient, and can be expanded to more than two populations and to other multiple parameter families. The permutation tests are entirely generic and can be useful in various applications dealing with zero (or other) inflation.</p

    Carryover aquatic effects on survival of metamorphic frogs during pond emigration. Ecological Applications

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    Abstract. In organisms with complex life cycles, physiological stressors during early life stages may have fitness-level impacts that are delayed into later stages or habitats. We tested the hypothesis that body size and date of metamorphosis, which are highly responsive to aquatic stressors, influence post-metamorphic survival and movement patterns in the terrestrial phase of an ephemeral pond-breeding frog by examining these traits in two populations of northern red-legged frogs (Rana aurora aurora). To increase variation of body size at metamorphosis, we manipulated food availability for 314 of 1045 uniquely marked tadpoles and estimated the probability that frogs survived and emigrated using concentric rings of drift fencing surrounding ponds and Bayesian capture-recapture modeling. The odds of surviving and emigrating from the ponds to the innermost drift fences, ϳ12 m, increased by factors of 2.20 (95% credibility intervals 1.39-4.23) and 2.54 (0.94-4.91) with each millimeter increase in snout-vent length and decreased by factors of 0.91 (0.85-0.96) and 0.89 (0.80-1.00) with each day&apos;s delay in metamorphosis for the two ponds. The odds of surviving and moving to the next ring of fencing, 12 m to ϳ40 m from the ponds, increased by a factor of 1.20 (0.45-4.06) with each millimeter increase in size. Our results demonstrated that body size and timing of metamorphosis relate strongly to the performance of newly metamorphosed frogs during their initial transition into terrestrial habitat. Carryover effects of aquatic stressors that reduce size and delay metamorphosis may have population-level impacts that are not expressed until terrestrial stages. Since changes in both aquatic and terrestrial systems are implicated in many amphibian declines, quantifying both immediate and delayed effects of stressors on demographic rates is critical to sound management

    Quantifying partial migration with sex-ratio balancing

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    Partial migration, the phenomenon in which animal populations are composed of both migratory and non-migratory individuals, is widespread among migrating animals. The proportion of migrants in these populations has direct influences on population genetics and dynamics, ecosystem dynamics, mating systems, evolution, and responses to environmental change, yet there are very few studies that measure the proportion of migrants. This is because existing methods to estimate the proportion of migrants are time-consuming and expensive. In this paper, we demonstrate a new method for estimating the proportion of migrants in a population, based on sex-ratio measurements. Many partially migratory taxa exhibit sex-biased migration or residency, and in these cases, the sex ratios of migrants and non-migrants are fundamentally related to the proportion of migrants in the population. We define this relationship quantitatively and show how it can be used to infer the proportion of migrants in a population through a process we term â sex-ratio balancing.â We obtain Bayesian estimates of proportion of migrants, and quantify the uncertainty in these estimates with highest posterior density intervals. Lastly, we validate the sex-ratio balancing approach with a Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Walbaum, 1792) data set. Sex-ratio balancing holds promise as a tool for quantifying partial migration and filling a key data gap about partially migratory taxa.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

    Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference

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    <div><p>A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data could result in better informed management decisions and assist in guidance for more effective estuarine restoration projects.</p></div
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