Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we employ some front page panel unit root tests to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity hypothesis in Turkey. Using monthly observations panel data of nine major county’s currency dates January 2003 through April 2010, we find that panel unit root tests are not rejected the mean-reversion of real exchange rates. Thus, the empirical results indicate significant support for the purchasing power parity holds in TurkeyPurchasing Power Parity, Real Exchange Rates, Panel Unit Root Tests, Floating Exchange Rates

Trade and Regional Development in A Developing Country: The Case of Turkey

There is a widespread literature to investigate the relations among increasing trade, economic growth and development; however the relationship between trade and regional development is remained inconsiderable. The aim of this study is, to investigate the interrelationship between trade and regional development in Turkey. Therefore firstly, regional development index is defined for 81 provinces of Turkey for the period from 2002 to 2008. This definition is based on the concept and calculation method of Human Development Index (HDI) of United Nations Development Programme. HDI is taken as a basis because it is a composite measure of education, health, and income. Health and education data used in this paper are Regional Statistics of Turkish Statistical Institute. However, GDP/GDP per capita data are not available for provinces for the period under concern. Several studies obviously show that there is a causality relationship between GDP and energy consumption. Thus, energy consumption statistics are used instead of income data. The seminal approaches of uniform and heterogeneous intra-national space of urban systems (and new economic geography models are considered to be worthwhile. To show the relationship between regional development index and share of volume of trade and between regional development index and trade openness, these approaches are utilized within generalized method of moments procedure in a panel data framework. Accordingly we use three dummy variables as endogenous or exogenous, namely large city, port and border provinces. The empirical findings show that the increases in trade openness are positively associated with future increases in regional development. As a result, large cities have a positive effect in this relationship, while the dummy variables of port and border provinces have not found statistically significant. The link between share of volume of trade and regional development is found out negative, merely when the approach of uniform intra-national space of new economic geography model is considered in our estimation. Furthermore, the results of panel causality tests, the share of volume of trade significantly causes regional development. On the other hand, there is a bilateral causality relationship between regional development and trade openness.

Causality relations between foreign direct investment and portfolio investment volatility

Following the liberalization of financial markets, Goldstein and Razin (2006) show that there is an information based trade-off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment, our paper examines the causality relations between foreign direct investment and volatility of foreign portfolio investment. Utilizing monthly and quarterly data set of Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey, volatility of portfolio investments, which indicated evidence of ARCH effects for all four countries, have been estimated by best fitting GARCH (p,q) models. Further, potential causality has been examined by Granger (1969), Sims (1972) and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test methods. Results indicated that, for Russia and Turkey foreign direct investment has a significant cause on portfolio investment volatility. However for Czech Republic and Poland, there is no such significant relationship has been found. Finally further investigation of a possible structural break due to EU membership could not provide such evidence for Czech Republic and Poland in related variables.Foreign Direct Investment, Foreign Portfolio Investment, Eastern Europe, Causality

Stohastička svojstva omjera potrošnje i prihoda u zemljama srednje i istočne Europe

This paper aims to investigate stochastic properties of the consumption-income ratios in eleven central and eastern European (CEE) countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The heterogeneous panel unit root tests are used to account for cross-sectional dependence and the Modified Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test over the period March 1997 – September 2012. The half-lives are also calculated as to find the strong mean-reversion in the consumption income ratio for nine of eleven CEE economies; and the exceptions are Croatia and Slovenia. In other words, empirical findings provide significant support for the existence of hypothesis that the consumption-income ratio is a mean reversion. Accordingly, the policy implications have permanent effects on the consumption of households only in Croatia and Slovenia.Cilj ovog rada je istražiti stohastička svojstva omjera potrošnje i prihoda u jedanaest zemalja srednje i istočne Europe (SIE): Bugarskoj, Hrvatskoj, Češkoj, Estoniji, Mađarskoj, Latviji, Litvi, Poljskoj, Rumunjskoj, Slovačkoj i Sloveniji. U radu se koriste heterogeni panel testovi jediničnih korijena za testiranje presjeka međuovisnosti i modificirani prošireni Dickey-Fuller test jediničnih korijena za razdoblje ožujak 1997. – rujan 2012. Također se izračunava polu-vijek i snažna prosječna recipročna vrijednost omjera između potrošnje i prihoda u devet od jedanaest gospodarstava SIE; izuzetak su Hrvatska i Slovenija. Drugim riječima, empirijski rezultati značajno podupiru hipotezu da je omjer potrošnje i prihoda u recipročnom odnosu. U skladu s tim, implikacije ekonomske politike imaju trajne učinke na potrošnju kućanstava samo u Hrvatskoj i Sloveniji

Inflation targeting and monetary policy rules: further evidence from the case of Turkey

Abstract In this paper, we attempt to estimate reaction functions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) based on Taylor rule and Hybrid McCallum-Taylor rule. We apply Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) methods for estimating monetary policy reaction functions, over the period when the CBRT has conducted inflation targeting by using nominal interest rate as a monetary policy tool in free floating exchange rate regime. Our efficient and robust empirical findings show that only Taylor rule specifications are able to explain the behaviour of the CBRT. JEL classification numbers: E52, E58, C3

Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we employ some front page panel unit root tests to examine the validity of the purchasing power parity hypothesis in Turkey. Using monthly observations panel data of nine major county’s currency dates January 2003 through April 2010, we find that panel unit root tests are not rejected the mean-reversion of real exchange rates. Thus, the empirical results indicate significant support for the purchasing power parity holds in Turke

How do weather risks in Canada and the United States affect global commodity prices? Implications for the decarbonisation process

Given that the probability of extreme weather has been dramatically increasing, this study contributes to the existing literature by bridging the relation between weather risks and global commodity prices with a secondary dataset (e.g., weather risks of Canada and the United States, agricultural raw materials price, gold price, and crude oil price). The results from the vector autoregression model and impulse response functions show that rising weather risks increase the price of agricultural raw materials and gold. However, the negative impact of weather risks on the crude oil price is found. Finally, the paper discusses the findings' potential implications (e.g., developing decarbonised supply chains) for decreasing weather risks' effects on commodity market uncertainties

Dynamic Relationships among CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Economic Complexity in France

Environmental degradation is most often brought to the agenda by arousing the attention of scholars, and there has been an increase in the studies on this issue. This paper re-estimates the environmental Kuznets curve in France over the period of 1964–2011. To this end, the unit root test with one structural break and a cointegration analysis with multiple endogenous structural breaks are considered. The impacts of the energy consumption and the economic complexity on CO2 emissions are also included in dynamic empirical models. First, it is found that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in France in both the short and the long run. Second, the positive impact of energy consumption on CO2 emissions is also observed in the long run. Third, it is observed that a higher economic complexity suppresses CO2 emissions in the long run. The evidence suggests important environmental policy implications to suppress CO2 emissions in France