Target Zones in History and Theory: Lessons from an Austro-Hungarian Experiment (1896-1914)

The first known experiment with an exchange rate band took place in Austria- Hungary between 1896 and 1914. The rationale for introducing this policy rested on precisely those intuitions that the modern literature has emphasized: the band was designed to secure both exchange rate stability and monetary policy autonomy. However, unlike more recent experiences, such as the ERM, this policy was not undermined by credibility problems. The episode provides an ideal testing ground for some important ideas in modern macroeconomics: specifically, can formal rules, when faithfully adhered to, provide policy makers with some advantages such as short term autonomy? First, we find that a credible band has a "microeconomic" influence on exchange rate stability. By reducing uncertainty, a credible fluctuation band improves the quality of expectations, a channel that has been neglected in the modern literature. Second, we show that the standard test of the basic target zone model is flawed and develop an alternative methodology. We believe that these findings shed a new light on the economics of exchange rate bands

Capture in the metabolic arena: co-selection of gamma and deltaretrovirus envelope glycoproteins and their receptors

International audiencen.

Effects of American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) on neurocognitive function: an acute, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study

Over the last decade, Asian ginseng (Panax ginseng) has been shown to improve aspects of human cognitive function. American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) has a distinct ginsenoside profile from P. ginseng, promising cognitive enhancing properties in preclinical studies and benefits processes linked to human cognition. The availability of a highly standardised extract of P. quinquefolius (Cereboost (TM)) led us to evaluate its neurocognitive properties in humans for the first time. This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial (N = 32, healthy young adults) assessed the acute mood, neurocognitive and glycaemic effects of three doses (100, 200 400 mg) of Cereboost (TM) (P. quinquefolius standardised to 10.65% ginsenosides). Participants' mood, cognitive function and blood glucose were measured 1, 3 and 6 h following administration. There was a significant improvement of working memory (WM) performance associated with P. quinquefolius. Corsi block performance was improved by all doses at all testing times. There were differential effects of all doses on other WM tasks which were maintained across the testing day. Choice reaction time accuracy and 'calmness' were significantly improved by 100 mg. There were no changes in blood glucose levels. This preliminary study has identified robust working memory enhancement following administration of American ginseng. These effects are distinct from those of Asian ginseng and suggest that psychopharmacological properties depend critically on ginsenoside profiles. These results have ramifications for the psychopharmacology of herbal extracts and merit further study using different dosing regimens and in populations where cognition is fragile

The Large Observatory For X-ray Timing: LOFT

LOFT, the Large Observatory for X-ray Timing, is a new space mission concept devoted to observations of Galactic and extra-Galactic sources in the X-ray domain with the main goals of probing gravity theory in the very strong field environment of black holes and other compact objects, and investigating the state of matter at supra-nuclear densities in neutron stars. The instruments on-board LOFT, the Large area detector and the Wide Field Monitor combine for the first time an unprecedented large effective area (~10 m2 at 8 keV) sensitive to X-ray photons mainly in the 2-30 keV energy range and a spectral resolution approaching that of CCD-based telescopes (down to 200 eV at 6 keV). LOFT is currently competing for a launch of opportunity in 2022 together with the other M3 mission candidates of the ESA Cosmic Vision Progra

Modelling Dynamic Conditional Correlations in WTI Oil Forward and Futures Returns

This paper estimates the dynamic conditional correlations in the returns on WTI oil one-month forward prices, and one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month futures prices, using recently developed multivariate conditional volatility models. The dynamic correlations enable a determination of whether the forward and various futures returns are substitutes or complements, which are crucial for deciding whether or not to hedge against unforeseen circumstances. The models are estimated using daily data on WTI oil forward and futures prices, and their associated returns, from 3 January 1985 to 16 January 2004. At the univariate level, the estimates are statistically significant, with the occasional asymmetric effect in which negative shocks have a greater impact on volatility than positive shocks. In all cases, both the short- and long-run persistence of shocks are statistically significant. Among the five returns, there are ten conditional correlations, with the highest estimate of constant conditional correlation being 0.975 between the volatilities of the three-month and six-month futures returns, and the lowest being 0.656 between the volatilities of the forward and twelve-month futures returns. The dynamic conditional correlations can vary dramatically, being negative in four of ten cases and being close to zero in another five cases. Only in the case of the dynamic volatilities of the three-month and six-month futures returns is the range of variation relatively narrow, namely (0.832, 0.996). Thus, in general, the dynamic volatilities in the returns in the WTI oil forward and future prices can be either independent or interdependent over time

Investments in Gas Pipelines and Liquefied Natural Gas Infrastructure. What is the Impact on the Security of Supply?

This paper addresses the question of the infrastructure investment required for gas pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) connections to meet growing gas demand in an enlarged EU over the next 20 years. Several issues are presented, bearing in mind the major objective of the security of supply for EU countries. First, to set the scene, recent projections of gas demand in an enlarged EU are presented along with the corresponding need for additional imports. Then a scenario is developed showing possible supply routes to meet the import gap, relying on increasingly remote routes. An impressive bill of $150 to 200 billion will have to be paid for extending and building the required infrastructure in pipeline links and LNG-receiving facilities. The expected major development of LNG markets is subject to a particular discussion, as far as the progressive globalisation of this market and its inherent flexibility provide major advantages in terms of the security of supply, despite more costly infrastructure than pipeline links. The impact of technological progress is expected to reduce both capital investment and unit transport costs, offering access to new supply opportunities. Finally, the question of major obstacles to the realisation of the required huge investments in gas infrastructure over the next 20 years is addressed, opening hot debate on the subjects of future gas price, market liberalisation and financing issues

A Climate-Change Policy Induced Shift from Innovations in Energy Production to Energy Savings

We develop an endogenous growth model with capital, labor and energy as production factors and three productivity variables that measure accumulated innovations for energy production, energy savings, and neutral growth. All markets are complete and perfect, except for research, for which we assume that the marginal social value exceeds marginal costs by factor four. The model constants are calibrated so that the model reproduces the relevant trends over the 1970-2000 period. The model contains a simple climate module, and is used to assess the impact of Induced Technological Change (ITC) for a policy that aims at a maximum level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (450 ppmv). ITC is shown to reduce the required carbon tax by about a factor 2, and to reduce costs of such a policy by about factor 10. Numerical simulations show that knowledge accumulation shifts from energy production to energy saving technology