Norway's approach to monetary policy

The goal of monetary policy as conducted by Norges Bank is to maintain low and stable inflation. The operational target of monetary policy is explicitly defined in a consumer price inflation rate of approximately 2.5 percent over time. Norges Bank sets its interest rate instrument with a view to achieving the inflation target over a two-year horizon, and it will normally tolerate deviations of actual inflation from target that are not in excess of plus or minus 1 percentage point. In general, the direct effects on consumer prices resulting from changes in interest rates, taxes, excise duties, and extraordinary temporary circumstances shall not be taken into account.Monetary policy - Norway ; Banks and banking, Central - Norway ; Norges Bank

Japan's approach to monetary policy

The goal of monetary policy as conducted by the Bank of Japan is to contribute to the sound development of the national economy through the pursuit of price stability. The objective of price stability, however, is not precisely defined as it has been for other central banks. Following the implementation of the new Bank of Japan Law in 1998, the monetary policy framework is characterized by central bank independence, the primacy of the price stability objective, instrument independence, and policy decisions made by a monetary policy committee with regular meetings and published minutes. At its meetings, the monetary policy committee discusses the economic and financial situation and then decides matters relating to monetary policy, including the following: the guideline for money market operations; the official discount rate; reserve requirements ratios; the Bank's view of economic and financial developments; and the types, terms, and conditions of bills and bonds used in money market operations.Monetary policy - Japan ; Bank of Japan ; Banks and banking, Central - Japan

Switzerland's approach to monetary policy

Monetary policy as conducted by the Swiss National Bank is aimed at maintaining price stability in the medium term. Between 1980 and 1999, the Bank used the seasonally adjusted monetary base as monetary target and as indicator. Given the continually distorted indicator value of the monetary base after 1996, the Bank fundamentally reviewed its modus operandi. As of the beginning of 2000, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) considers price stability to be achieved with an annual inflation (CPI) rate of less than 2 percent. The Bank bases its monetary policy decisions on a medium-term (three-year) inflation forecast. Despite similarities to inflation targeting, the new framework differs from it in one important respect, namely, it does not contain an institutional commitment to an inflation target as the overriding objective of monetary policy.Monetary policy - Switzerland ; Banks and banking, Central - Switzerland ; Swiss National Bank

Rethinking the International Monetary System: an overview

Monetary policy ; International finance

Why the interest in reform?

Monetary policy

Inside and Outside Bounds: Threshold Estimates of the Phillips Curve

There have been several instances over the past 40 years when large movements in the unemployment rate have elicited little response in the inflation rate. Such instances, while casting doubt on the tradeoff implied by the linear Phillips curve, are also associated with large inflation forecasting errors. In principle, these movements are consistent with a Phillips curve relationship; they just require the curve to shift in the same direction as the unemployment rate. Econometric representations of the Phillips relationship usually incorporate factors that can cause the Phillips curve to shift over time. However, the literature has not yet provided a test of whether such factors are sufficient to explain the episodes of horizontal movement. In this paper, the authors test the explanatory power of a double threshold specification of the Phillips relationship against a simple linear specification, and compare dynamic and static out of sample forecasts of inflation across linear and double threshold specifications of the Phillips curve. The authors find that traditional shifters in the relationships are insufficient for characterizing the periods of horizontal movement, and that a double threshold specification makes significant improvements in the static and dynamic out of sample inflation forecasting performance of the Phillips curvPhillips Curve; Threshold Models; Inflation Forecasting

A Response to Cogley and Sbordone's Comment on "Closed-Form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time-Varying Trend Inflation"

In their 2010 comment (which we refer to as CS10), Cogley and Sbordone argue that: (i) our estimates are not entirely closed form, and hence are arbitrary; (ii) we cannot guarantee that our estimates are valid, while their estimates (Cogley and Sbordone 2008, henceforth CS08) always are; and (iii) the estimates in CS08, in terms of goodness of fit, are just as good as other, much different estimates in our paper. We show in this reply that the exact closed-form estimates are virtually the same as the "quasi" closed-form estimates. Our estimates are consistent with the implicit assumptions underlying the first-stage VAR used to form expectations, while the estimates in CS08 are not. As a result, the estimates in CS08 point towards model misspecification. We also rebut the goodness of fit comparisons in CS10, and provide a more credible exercise that illustrates that our estimates outperform CS08's estimates.closed form; model-consistent expectations; New Keynesian Phillips curve; forward-looking Euler equation; time-varying trend inflation

A Response to Cogley and Sbordone’s Comment on "Closed-Form Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Time-Varying Trend Inflation"

In their 2010 comment (which we refer to as CS10), Cogley and Sbordone argue that: (i) our estimates are not entirely closed form, and hence are arbitrary; (ii) we cannot guarantee that our estimates are valid, while their estimates (Cogley and Sbordone 2008, henceforth CS08) always are; and (iii) the estimates in CS08, in terms of goodness of fit, are just as good as other, much different estimates in our paper. We show in this reply that the exact closed-form estimates are virtually the same as the "quasi" closed-form estimates. Our estimates are consistent with the implicit assumptions underlying the first-stage VAR used to form expectations, while the estimates in CS08 are not. As a result, the estimates in CS08 point towards model misspecification. We also rebut the goodness of fit comparisons in CS10, and provide a more credible exercise that illustrates that our estimates outperform CS08's estimates

Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We illustrate the importance of placing model-consistent restrictions on expectations in the estimation of forward-looking Euler equations. In two-stage limited-information settings where first-stage estimates are used to proxy for expectations, parameter estimates can differ substantially, depending on whether these restrictions are imposed or not. This is shown in an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), first in a Monte Carlo exercise, and then on actual data. The closed-form (CF) estimates require by construction that expectations of inflation be model-consistent at all points in time, while the difference-equation (DE) estimates impose no model discipline on expectations. Between those two polar extremes there is a wide range of alternative DE specifications, based on the same dynamic relationship, that explicitly impose model restrictions on expectations for a finite number of periods. In our application, these last estimates quickly converge to the CF estimates, and illustrate that the DE estimates in Cogley and Sbordone (2008) are not robust to imposing modest model requirements on expectations. In particular, our estimates show that the NKPC is not purely forward-looking, and thus that time-varying trend inflation is insufficient to explain inflation persistence.closed form; model-consistent expectations; New Keynesian Phillips curve; forward- looking Euler equation; time-varying trend inflation

Estimation of Forward-Looking Relationships in Closed Form: An Application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We illustrate the importance of placing model-consistent restrictions on expectations in the estimation of forward-looking Euler equations. In two-stage limited-information settings where first-stage estimates are used to proxy for expectations, parameter estimates can differ substantially, depending on whether these restrictions are imposed or not. This is shown in an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), first in a Monte Carlo exercise, and then on actual data. The closed-form (CF) estimates require by construction that expectations of inflation be model-consistent at all points in time, while the difference-equation (DE) estimates impose no model discipline on expectations. Between those two polar extremes there is a wide range of alternative DE specifications, based on the same dynamic relationship, that explicitly impose model restrictions on expectations for a finite number of periods. In our application, these last estimates quickly converge to the CF estimates, and illustrate that the DE estimates in Cogley and Sbordone (2008) are not robust to imposing modest model requirements on expectations. In particular, our estimates show that the NKPC is not purely forward-looking, and thus that time-varying trend inflation is insufficient to explain inflation persistence