Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration

<jats:p>How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.</jats:p&gt

Ibuprofen and diclofenac: Effect on freshwater and marine aquatic organisms-Are they at risk?

Pharmaceuticals are included in the group of emergent pollutants due to their characteristics and potential negative effects. They remain mostly unregulated or are undergoing currently some sort of regularization process. Diclofenac, for instance, has been included in a watch list of substances for European Union-wide monitoring and the priority list of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are a varied and chemically heterogeneous group of mainly anti-inflammatory, analgesic, and antipyretic drugs, reducing symptoms of inflammation, pain, and fever, respectively. They are widely employed and have been detected in freshwater, seawater, and sediment. Nevertheless, they are found as mixture instead of single compounds. In this chapter, we have tried to summarize how to assess the risk due to the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in aquatic ecosystems. We have focused on the mixture of diclofenac and ibuprofen using acute and sublethal toxicity data for different aquatic species. It has been presented new strategies as adverse outcome pathway to improve the understanding of the toxicity of these compounds. Although gaps of the information are pointed out, the risk levels associated with the occurrence of these compounds in aquatic ecosystems will range between no risk or high risk, depending on concentrations and environmental conditions.We would like to thank the projects CTM2016-75908-R and CTM2015-70731-R and the Junta de Andalucía PAIDI Excellence Research Group RNM306 for their support. MH is supported by the Spanish Ramón y Cajal funding scheme (contract reference RYC-2012-12217) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MINECO)