Assessment of stability and fluctuations of cultured lower airway bacterial communities in people with cystic fibrosis

Background: Routine clinical culture detects a subset of the cystic fibrosis (CF) airways microbiota based on culture-independent (molecular) methods. This study aimed to determine how extended sputum culture of viable bacteria changes over time in relation to clinical status and predicts exacerbations. Methods: Sputa from patients at a baseline stable and up to three subsequent time-points were analysed by extended-quantitative culture; aerobe/anaerobe densities, ecological indexes and community structure were assessed together with clinical outcomes. Results: Eighty patients were prospectively recruited. Sputa were successfully collected and cultured at 199/267 (74.5%) study visits. Eighty-two sputa from 25 patients comprised a complete sample-set for longitudinal analyses. Bacterial density, ecological indexes and clinical outcomes were unchanged in 18 patients with three sequential stable visits. Conversely, in 7 patients who had an exacerbation, total bacterial and aerobe densities differed over four study visits (P < .001) with this difference particularly apparent between the baseline visit and completion of acute antibiotic treatment where a decrease in density was observed. Bacterial communities were more similar within than between patients but stable patients had the least variation in community structure over time. Using logistic regression in a further analysis, baseline features in 37 patients without compared to 15 patients with a subsequent exacerbation showed that clinical measures rather than bacterial density or ecological indexes were independent predictors of an exacerbation. Conclusions: Greater fluctuation in the viable bacterial community during treatment of an exacerbation than between stable visits was observed. Extended-quantitative culture did not provide prognostic information of a future exacerbation

Understanding and managing uncertainty and variability for wastewater monitoring beyond the pandemic : lessons learned from the United Kingdom national COVID-19 surveillance programmes

The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented pressure on public health resources around the world. From adversity, opportunities have arisen to measure the state and dynamics of human disease at a scale not seen before. In the United Kingdom, the evidence that wastewater could be used to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 virus prompted the development of National wastewater surveillance programmes. The scale and pace of this work has proven to be unique in monitoring of virus dynamics at a national level, demonstrating the importance of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for public health protection. Beyond COVID-19, it can provide additional value for monitoring and informing on a range of biological and chemical markers of human health. A discussion of measurement uncertainty associated with surveillance of wastewater, focusing on lessons-learned from the UK programmes monitoring COVID-19 is presented, showing that sources of uncertainty impacting measurement quality and interpretation of data for public health decision-making, are varied and complex. While some factors remain poorly understood, we present approaches taken by the UK programmes to manage and mitigate the more tractable sources of uncertainty. This work provides a platform to integrate uncertainty management into WBE activities as part of global One Health initiatives beyond the pandemic