Development and validation of a machine learned algorithm to IDENTIFY functionally significant coronary artery disease

Introduction: Multiple trials have demonstrated broad performance ranges for tests attempting to detect coronary artery disease. The most common test, SPECT, requires capital-intensive equipment, the use of radionuclides, induction of stress, and time off work and/or travel. Presented here are the development and clinical validation of an office-based machine learned algorithm to identify functionally significant coronary artery disease without radiation, expensive equipment or induced patient stress. Materials and methods: The IDENTIFY trial (NCT03864081) is a prospective, multicenter, non-randomized, selectively blinded, repository study to collect acquired signals paired with subject meta-data, including outcomes, from subjects with symptoms of coronary artery disease. Time synchronized orthogonal voltage gradient and photoplethysmographic signals were collected for 230 seconds from recumbent subjects at rest within seven days of either left heart catheterization or coronary computed tomography angiography. Following machine learning on a proportion of these data (N = 2,522), a final algorithm was selected, along with a pre-specified cut point on the receiver operating characteristic curve for clinical validation. An unseen set of subject signals (N = 965) was used to validate the algorithm. Results: At the pre-specified cut point, the sensitivity for detecting functionally significant coronary artery disease was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.78), and the specificity was 0.68 (0.62-0.74). There exists a point on the receiver operating characteristic curve at which the negative predictive value is the same as coronary computed tomographic angiography, 0.99, assuming a disease incidence of 0.04, yielding sensitivity of 0.89 and specificity of 0.42. Selecting a point at which the positive predictive value is maximized, 0.12, yields sensitivity of 0.39 and specificity of 0.88. Conclusion: The performance of the machine learned algorithm presented here is comparable to common tertiary center testing for coronary artery disease. Employing multiple cut points on the receiver operating characteristic curve can yield the negative predictive value of coronary computed tomographic angiography and a positive predictive value approaching that of myocardial perfusion imaging. As such, a system employing this algorithm may address the need for a non-invasive, no radiation, no stress, front line test, and hence offer significant advantages to the patient, their physician, and healthcare system

Multicenter validation of a machine learning phase space electro-mechanical pulse wave analysis to predict elevated left ventricular end diastolic pressure at the point-of-care

BACKGROUND: Phase space is a mechanical systems approach and large-scale data representation of an object in 3-dimensional space. Whether such techniques can be applied to predict left ventricular pressures non-invasively and at the point-of-care is unknown. OBJECTIVE: This study prospectively validated a phase space machine-learned approach based on a novel electro-mechanical pulse wave method of data collection through orthogonal voltage gradient (OVG) and photoplethysmography (PPG) for the prediction of elevated left ventricular end diastolic pressure (LVEDP). METHODS: Consecutive outpatients across 15 US-based healthcare centers with symptoms suggestive of coronary artery disease were enrolled at the time of elective cardiac catheterization and underwent OVG and PPG data acquisition immediately prior to angiography with signals paired with LVEDP (IDENTIFY; NCT #03864081). The primary objective was to validate a ML algorithm for prediction of elevated LVEDP using a definition of ≥ 25 mmHg (study cohort) and normal LVEDP ≤ 12 mmHg (control cohort), using AUC as the measure of diagnostic accuracy. Secondary objectives included performance of the ML predictor in a propensity matched cohort (age and gender) and performance for an elevated LVEDP across a spectrum of comparative LVEDP (increments). Features were extracted from the OVG and PPG datasets and were analyzed using machine-learning approaches. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 684 subjects stratified into three LVEDP categories, ≤ 12 mmHg (N = 258), LVEDP 13-24 mmHg (N = 347), and LVEDP ≥ 25 mmHg (N = 79). Testing of the ML predictor demonstrated an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.76-0.86) for the prediction of an elevated LVEDP with a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 68%, respectively. Among a propensity matched cohort (N = 79) the ML predictor demonstrated a similar result AUC 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.8). Using a constant definition of elevated LVEDP and varying the lower threshold across LVEDP the ML predictor demonstrated and AUC ranging from 0.79-0.82. CONCLUSION: The phase space ML analysis provides a robust prediction for an elevated LVEDP at the point-of-care. These data suggest a potential role for an OVG and PPG derived electro-mechanical pulse wave strategy to determine if LVEDP is elevated in patients with symptoms suggestive of cardiac disease

Performance of the machine-learned predictor.

Performance of the machine-learned predictor.</p

2x2 contingency Tables & additional statistics.

(DOCX)</p

Feature values.

(XLSX)</p

Propensity matching.

(DOCX)</p

Features.

(DOCX)</p

Performance while varying the definition of LVEDP elevation and non-elevation.

a) the definition of elevation is held constant at ≥25mmHg, while the definition of non-elevation is varied from ≤12mmHg to ≤24mmHg, and the ROC curves assessed for each scenario. b) the definition of both elevation and non-elevation are varied from ≥13-25mmHg and ≤12-24mmHg, respectively, and the corresponding AUCs represented as a heatmap.</p

Subgroup analyses of the performance of the machine-learned predictor.

Subgroup analyses of the performance of the machine-learned predictor.</p

Histogram of study population LVEDP.

Histogram of study population LVEDP.</p