How Can Research and Theory Enhance Understanding of Professional Decision-Making in Reviews of Cases of Child Death and Serious Injury?

Abstract In most child protection jurisdictions, a case of child death or serious injury through the actions or inaction of a parent or carer is responded to with an inquiry into the circumstances that led to the death of the child. A key objective of such inquiries is to discern what may have been done by public agencies to prevent the child’s death or serious injury and this may, in turn, lead to changes in existing policies or the development of new policies. Such changes have, at times, been criticised as ‘knee jerk’ reactions and can lead to well-meaning but possibly counter-productive initiatives. A general observation is that, in some inquiry reports, there is little, if any, reference to research and theory about child protection practice and policy. In this article, an anonymised case study of a child death inquiry is used to analyse the decision-making processes of child protection practitioners using a range of theory and research. The aim is to demonstrate how the use of insights from theory and research can lead to an enhanced understanding of the circumstances that led to a child death or serious injury, one which is grounded in current knowledge and evidence

Food Dispersion and Foraging Energetics: a Mechanistic Synthesis for Field Studies of Avian Benthivores

Much effort has focused on modeling and measuring the energy costs of free existence and the foraging strategies of animals. However, few studies have quantitatively linked these approaches to the patch structure of foods in the field. We developed an individual—based model that relates field measurements of the dispersion of benthic foods to search costs and foraging profitability of diving ducks. On Lake Mattamuskeet, North Carolina, Canvasback ducks (Aythya valisineria) eat only the belowground winter buds of the submerged plant Vallisneria americana. We measured and modeled the patch structure of winter buds at the level of potential foraging loci, defined as contiguous circles 1 m in diameter. In the field and in the model, Canvasbacks make repeated vertical dives in such loci, foraging in the sediments by touch, before surface—swimming to another locus. We quantified first—order patchiness by fitting a negative binomial distribution to core samples taken at 50-m intervals along transects, to yield the frequencies of loci with different bud densities. Second-order patchiness was measured by taking cores at 1-m increments radiating from each sampling point, and regressing bud density at each sampling point on densities at these increments. No significant correlations were found, indicating that Canvasbacks could not predict food densities based on densities in nearby foraging loci. For the model, we generated food grids from the negative binomial distributions of core samples. Energy costs of diving were calculated by applying aerobic efficiencies (mechanical power output / aerobic power input) to biomechanical models. Unlike respirometry alone, this method accounts for effects on dive costs of varying water depth and dive duration. We used measurements of Canvasback intake rates at different bud densities to calculate profitability (energy intake minus expenditure) for each dive. Multivariate uncertainty analyses (Latin hypercube) indicated that profitability for Canvasbacks foraging on Vallisneria buds is determined mainly by food—item size and locomotor costs of descent. Bud metabolizable energy, water temperature, bud dispersion, and search and handling time coefficients of the functional response for intake rate have relatively minor influence. Individual-parameter perturbations indicated that to maintain the same foraging benefits, the total area of Vallisneria habitat would have to increase by 1.4-fold if dry mass per bud decreased from 0.10 to 0.03 g, and by 2.1-fold if water depth increased from 0.5 to 2 m. Our method allows study of interactions between patch structure and foraging energetics without detailed spatial mapping of foods, which is not feasible at appropriate scales for highly mobile benthivores. The model yields estimates of energy balance, contaminant intake, and amount and quality of foraging habitat required to sustain diving duck populations under varying environmental conditions. More accurate prediction of giving-up times and giving-up food densities will require better understanding of the time scale over which ducks balance their energy budgets

PILOT: design and capabilities

The proposed design for PILOT is a general-purpose, wide-field 1 degree 2.4m, f/10 Ritchey-Chretien telescope, with fast tip-tilt guiding, for use 0.5-25 microns. The design allows both wide-field and diffraction-limited use at these wavelengths. The expected overall image quality, including median seeing, is 0.28-0.3" FWHM from 0.8-2.4 microns. Point source sensitivities are estimated.Comment: 4 pages, Proceedings of 2nd ARENA conference 'The Astrophysical Science Cases at Dome C', Potsdam, 17-21 September 200

Statistical analysis of Ni nanowires breaking processes: a numerical simulation study

A statistical analysis of the breaking behavior of Ni nanowires is presented. Using molecular dynamic simulations, we have determined the time evolution of both the nanowire atomic structure and its minimum cross section (Sm(t)). Accumulating thousands of independent breaking events, Sm histograms are built and used to study the influence of the temperature, the crystalline stretching direction and the initial nanowire size. The proportion of monomers, dimers and more complex structures at the latest stages of the breaking process are calculated, finding important differences among results obtained for different nanowire orientations and sizes. Three main cases have been observed. (A) [111] stretching direction and large nanowire sizes: the wire evolves from more complex structures to monomers and dimers prior its rupture; well ordered structures is presented during the breaking process. (B) Large nanowires stretched along the [100] and [110] directions: the system mainly breaks from complex structures (low probability of finding monomers and dimers), having disordered regions during their breakage; at room temperature, a huge histogram peak around Sm=5 appears, showing the presence of long staggered pentagonal Ni wires with ...-5-1-5-... structure. (C) Initial wire size is small: strong size effects independently on the temperature and stretching direction. Finally, the local structure around monomers and dimmers do not depend on the stretching direction. These configurations differ from those usually chosen in static studies of conductance.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figure

Boundary line models for soil nutrient concentrations and wheat yield in national-scale datasets

In boundary line analysis a biological response (e.g., crop yield) is assumed to be a function of a variable (e.g., soil nutrient concentration), which limits the response in only some subset of observations because other limiting factors also apply. The response function is therefore expressed by an upper boundary of the plot of the response against the variable. This model has been used in various branches of soil science. In this paper we apply it to the analysis of some large datasets, originating from commercial farms in England and Wales, on the recorded yield of wheat and measured concentrations of soil nutrients in within‐field soil management zones. We considered boundary line models for the effects of potassium (K), phosphorus (P) and magnesium (Mg) on yield, comparing the model with a simple bivariate normal distribution or a bivariate normal censored at a constant maximum yield. We were able to show, using likelihood‐based methods, that the boundary line model was preferable in most cases. The boundary line model suggested that the standard RB209 soil nutrient index values (Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, nutrient management guide (RB209), 2017) are robust and apply at the within‐field scale. However, there was evidence that wheat yield could respond to additional Mg at concentrations above index 0, contrary to RB209 guidelines. Furthermore, there was evidence that the boundary line model for yield and P differs between soils at different pH and depth intervals, suggesting that shallow soils with larger pH require a larger target P index than others

Comparison of seasonal habitat selection between threatened woodland caribou ecotypes in central British Columbia

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia have been classified into ecotypes based on differences in use of habitat in winter. Although recovery planning focuses on ecotypes, habitat use and selection varies within ecotypes. Our objectives were to compare habitat use and selection among previously identified woodland caribou herds at the transition zone between northern (Moberly, Quintette, and Kennedy herds) and mountain (Parsnip herd) ecotypes in central British Columbia. We developed selection models for each herd in spring, calving, summer/fall, early and late winter. Topographic models best predicted selection by most herds in most seasons, but importance of vegetation-cover was highlighted by disproportionate use of specific vegetation-cover types by all caribou herds (e.g., in early winter, 75% of Kennedy locations were in pine-leading stands, 84% of Parsnip locations were in fir and fir-leading stands, and 87 and 96% of locations were in alpine for the Moberly and Quintette herds, respectively). Using a combination of GPS and VHF radio-collar locations, we documented some spatial overlap among herds within the year, but use of vegetation-cover types and selection of elevations, aspects, and vegetation-cover types differed among herds and within ecotypes in all seasons. Habitat use and selection were most similar between the two northern-ecotype herds residing on the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains. This research indicates that habitat use and selection by caribou herds in all seasons is more variable than ecotype classifications suggest and demonstrates the value of undertaking herd-specific mapping of critical habitat for woodland caribou

EFFECTS OF PLANT COMPENSATION ACROSS SITES ON REGRESSION ESTIMATES OF SHOOT BIOMASS AND LENGTH

Regression estimates for determining browse shoot biomass from bite diameters and shoot basal diameters are commonly used to estimate biomass consumption and the impacts that herbivores have on range resources. Such estimates tend to be based on equations built from data taken across the continuum of shoot morphometries present on plants within a given study area. How these morphometric relationships differ between the shoots of undamaged and damaged (e.g., following browsing, shoot breakage, or brush-cutting) plants is unclear. To assess the effects of plant compensation and the importance of site on shoot morphometrics for Scouler's Willow (Salix scouleriana), we clipped and measured current annual shoots at 5 sites in central British Columbia. Each site had been previously brush-cut and current annual shoots were collected from both brush-cut and control willows. For each treatment and site, we developed separate regressions to predict shoot weight from length, weight from basal diameter, and length from basal diameter. Comparisons of individual regressions indicated that different regressions, or even different forms of regressions (i.e., power function versus linear), are needed to accurately predict shoot weight and length depending on whether or not plants are producing compensatory or non-compensatory shoots. For some willows in the same treatment category (brush-cut versus uncut), the appropriate regressions differed among some sites. These results suggest that the effects of plant compensation following mechanical damage have important implications to the extrapolation and interpretation of shoot morphometric relationships, and thus, biomass estimates across different study areas

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events

THE IMPORTANCE OF INDIVIDUAL VARIATION IN DEFINING HABITAT SELECTION BY MOOSE IN NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA

Understanding resource use and selection has been central to many studies of ungulate ecology. Global positioning satellite (GPS) collars, remote sensing, and geographic information systems (GIS) now make it easier to examine variation in use and selection by individuals. Resource selection functions, however, are commonly developed for global (all animals pooled) models and important information on individual variability may be lost. Using data from 14 female moose (Alces alces) collared in the Muskwa-Kechika Management Area of northern British Columbia, we examined differences among global and individual resource selection models for 5 seasons (winter, late winter, calving, summer, and fall). The global models indicated that moose selected for mid-elevations, and for deciduous burns and Carex sedge areas in all seasons. Resource selection models for individuals, however, indicated that no individuals selected the same attributes as the global models. We also examined selection ratios among seasons with individual moose as replicates, and within individuals with bootstrapping techniques. We discuss the importance of considering individual variation in defining resource selection and habitat use by moose and contrast the results of selection ratios and resource selection models. We also use these data to illustrate some of the pitfalls that can be encountered using the 2 methodologies

DIFFERENTIAL HABITAT SELECTION BY MOOSE AND ELK IN THE BESA-PROPHET AREA OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA

Elk (Cervus elaphus) populations are increasing in the Besa-Prophet area of northern British Columbia, coinciding with the use of prescribed burns to increase quality of habitat for ungulates. Moose (Alces alces) and elk are now the 2 large-biomass species in this multi-ungulate, multi-predator system. Using global positioning satellite (GPS) collars on 14 female moose and 13 female elk, remote-sensing imagery of vegetation, and assessments of predation risk for wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), we examined habitat use and selection. Seasonal ranges were typicallysmallest for moose during calving and for elk during winter and late winter. Both species used largest ranges in summer. Moose and elk moved to lower elevations from winter to late winter, but subsequent calving strategies differed. During calving, moose moved to lowest elevations of the year, whereas elk moved back to higher elevations. Moose generally selected for mid-elevations and against steep slopes; for Stunted spruce habitat in late winter; for Pine-spruce in summer; and for Subalpine during fall and winter. Most recorded moose locations were in Pine-spruce during late winter, calving, and summer, and in Subalpine during fall and winter. Elk selected for mid-elevations except in summer and for steep slopes in late winter. Use and selection of 3 habitat classes were prominent for elk: Deciduous and Elymus burns, and Subalpine. Highest overlap between moose and elk occurred during fall and winter when both species used and strongly selected for Subalpine habitat. Neither elk nor moose selected areas to minimize the risk of wolf predation, but elk selected areas with lower risk of predation by grizzly bears and higher vegetation quality during calving and summer