Data_Sheet_1_Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States.pdf

As global climate change progresses, the United States (US) is expected to experience warmer temperatures as well as more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including heat waves, hurricanes, and wildfires. Each year, these events cost dozens of lives and do billions of dollars' worth of damage, but there has been limited research on how they influence human decisions about migration. Are people moving toward or away from areas most at risk from these climate threats? Here, we examine recent (2010–2020) trends in human migration across the US in relation to features of the natural landscape and climate, as well as frequencies of various natural hazards. Controlling for socioeconomic and environmental factors, we found that people have moved away from areas most affected by heat waves and hurricanes, but toward areas most affected by wildfires. This relationship may suggest that, for many, the dangers of wildfires do not yet outweigh the perceived benefits of life in fire-prone areas. We also found that people have been moving toward metropolitan areas with relatively hot summers, a dangerous public health trend if mean and maximum temperatures continue to rise, as projected in most climate scenarios. These results have implications for policymakers and planners as they prepare strategies to mitigate climate change and natural hazards in areas attracting migrants.</p

Tradeoffs of a rising agroecological practice: addressing uncertainty around tarping with participatory action research and mixed methods

Transitioning to more sustainable agricultural practices is a key goal in agroecology. Before practices are adopted, however, farmers must weigh a complex set of biophysical and socioeconomic tradeoffs. Tarping is a weed control practice gaining popularity in New England, but many of its biophysical impacts remain unclear to farmers. Here, we used participatory action research to engage in mutual learning with farmers around the tradeoffs of tarping for weed control. We collected quantitative biophysical data with a field study and qualitative data on biophysical and socioeconomic factors by interviewing farmers. We found tarping has a number of benefits, challenges, and uncertainties, though most farmers had positive overall perceptions of the practice. Many of our biophysical results matched farmers’ experiences, including that tarping dramatically heated soils, suppressed weeds, and increased crop yields. However, our mixed results for the effects of tarping on soil nitrate contrasted farmers’ perception that tarping increases soil nitrate availability. Engaging in participatory and mixed methods research was an effective approach to unveil complex tradeoffs around tarping and ensure our research was relevant to farmer interests. Future research on long-term effects of tarps will be valuable to inform the sustainability of this practice.</p