Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Modeling the evolution of a classic genetic switch

Abstract Background The regulatory network underlying the yeast galactose-use pathway has emerged as a model system for the study of regulatory network evolution. Evidence has recently been provided for adaptive evolution in this network following a whole genome duplication event. An ancestral gene encoding a bi-functional galactokinase and co-inducer protein molecule has become subfunctionalized as paralogous genes (GAL1 and GAL3) in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, with most fitness gains being attributable to changes in cis- regulatory elements. However, the quantitative functional implications of the evolutionary changes in this regulatory network remain unexplored. Results We develop a modeling framework to examine the evolution of the GAL regulatory network. This enables us to translate molecular changes in the regulatory network to changes in quantitative network function. We computationally reconstruct an inferred ancestral version of the network and trace the evolutionary paths in the lineage leading to S. cerevisiae. We explore the evolutionary landscape of possible regulatory networks and find that the operation of intermediate networks leading to S. cerevisiae differs substantially depending on the order in which evolutionary changes accumulate; in particular, we systematically explore evolutionary paths and find that some network features cannot be optimized simultaneously. Conclusions We find that a computational modeling approach can be used to analyze the evolution of a well-studied regulatory network. Our results are consistent with several experimental studies of the evolutionary of the GAL regulatory network, including increased fitness in Saccharomyces due to duplication and adaptive regulatory divergence. The conceptual and computational tools that we have developed may be applicable in further studies of regulatory network evolution

Estimation of Isolation Times of the Island Species in the Drosophila simulans Complex from Multilocus DNA Sequence Data

Background: The Drosophila simulans species complex continues to serve as an important model system for the study of new species formation. The complex is comprised of the cosmopolitan species, D. simulans, and two island endemics, D. mauritiana and D. sechellia. A substantial amount of effort has gone into reconstructing the natural history of the complex, in part to infer the context in which functional divergence among the species has arisen. In this regard, a key parameter to be estimated is the initial isolation time (t) of each island species. Loci in regions of low recombination have lower divergence within the complex than do other loci, yet divergence from D. melanogaster is similar for both classes. This might reflect gene flow of the lowrecombination loci subsequent to initial isolation, but it might also reflect differential effects of changing population size on the two recombination classes of loci when the low-recombination loci are subject to genetic hitchhiking or pseudohitchhiking Methodology/Principal Findings: New DNA sequence variation data for 17 loci corroborate the prior observation from 13 loci that DNA sequence divergence is reduced in genes of low recombination. Two models are presented to estimate t and other relevant parameters (substitution rate correction factors in lineages leading to the island species and, in the case of the 4-parameter model, the ratio of ancestral to extant effective population size) from the multilocus DNA sequence data. Conclusions/Significance: In general, it appears that both island species were isolated at about the same time, here estimated at,250,000 years ago. It also appears that the difference in divergence patterns of genes in regions of low an

Schmallenberg virus pathogenesis, tropism and interaction with the innate immune system of the host

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is an emerging orthobunyavirus of ruminants associated with outbreaks of congenital malformations in aborted and stillborn animals. Since its discovery in November 2011, SBV has spread very rapidly to many European countries. Here, we developed molecular and serological tools, and an experimental in vivo model as a platform to study SBV pathogenesis, tropism and virus-host cell interactions. Using a synthetic biology approach, we developed a reverse genetics system for the rapid rescue and genetic manipulation of SBV. We showed that SBV has a wide tropism in cell culture and “synthetic” SBV replicates in vitro as efficiently as wild type virus. We developed an experimental mouse model to study SBV infection and showed that this virus replicates abundantly in neurons where it causes cerebral malacia and vacuolation of the cerebral cortex. These virus-induced acute lesions are useful in understanding the progression from vacuolation to porencephaly and extensive tissue destruction, often observed in aborted lambs and calves in naturally occurring Schmallenberg cases. Indeed, we detected high levels of SBV antigens in the neurons of the gray matter of brain and spinal cord of naturally affected lambs and calves, suggesting that muscular hypoplasia observed in SBV-infected lambs is mostly secondary to central nervous system damage. Finally, we investigated the molecular determinants of SBV virulence. Interestingly, we found a biological SBV clone that after passage in cell culture displays increased virulence in mice. We also found that a SBV deletion mutant of the non-structural NSs protein (SBVΔNSs) is less virulent in mice than wild type SBV. Attenuation of SBV virulence depends on the inability of SBVΔNSs to block IFN synthesis in virus infected cells. In conclusion, this work provides a useful experimental framework to study the biology and pathogenesis of SBV

Electrical characterization and nanoscale surface morphology of optimized Ti/Al/Ta/Au ohmic contact for AlGaN/GaN HEMT

Good ohmic contacts with low contact resistance, smooth surface morphology, and a well-defined edge profile are essential to ensure optimal device performances for the AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistors [HEMTs]. A tantalum [Ta] metal layer and an SiNx thin film were used for the first time as an effective diffusion barrier and encapsulation layer in the standard Ti/Al/metal/Au ohmic metallization scheme in order to obtain high quality ohmic contacts with a focus on the thickness of Ta and SiNx. It is found that the Ta thickness is the dominant factor affecting the contact resistance, while the SiNx thickness affects the surface morphology significantly. An optimized Ti/Al/Ta/Au ohmic contact including a 40-nm thick Ta barrier layer and a 50-nm thick SiNx encapsulation layer is preferred when compared with the other conventional ohmic contact stacks as it produces a low contact resistance of around 7.27 × 10-7 Ω·cm2 and an ultra-low nanoscale surface morphology with a root mean square deviation of around 10 nm. Results from the proposed study play an important role in obtaining excellent ohmic contact formation in the fabrication of AlGaN/GaN HEMTs

On Being the Right Size: The Impact of Population Size and Stochastic Effects on the Evolution of Drug Resistance in Hospitals and the Community

The evolution of drug resistant bacteria is a severe public health problem, both in hospitals and in the community. Currently, some countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. Emergent resistant strains often originate in health care facilities, but it is unknown to what extent hospital size affects resistance evolution and the resulting spillover of hospital-associated pathogens to the community. We used two published datasets from the US and Ireland to investigate the effects of hospital size and controlled for several confounders such as antimicrobial usage, sampling frequency, mortality, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in a hospital strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the increase of hospital-acquired infections over time. One interpretation of this pattern is that chance effects in small hospitals impede the spread of drug-resistance. To investigate to what extent the size distribution of hospitals can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use a stochastic epidemiological model describing the spread of drug resistance in a hospital setting as well as the interaction between one or several hospitals and the community. We show that the level of drug resistance typically increases with population size: In small hospitals chance effects cause large fluctuations in pathogen population size or even extinctions, both of which impede the acquisition and spread of drug resistance. Finally, we show that indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs can reduce the effect of hospital size because the slow turnover in the environment can prevent extinction of resistant strains. This implies that reducing environmental transmission is especially important in small hospitals, because such a reduction not only reduces overall transmission but might also facilitate the extinction of resistant strains. Overall, our study shows that the distribution of hospital sizes is a crucial factor for the spread of drug resistance

Mild Joint Symptoms Are Associated with Lower Risk of Falls than Asymptomatic Individuals with Radiological Evidence of Osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA) exacerbates skeletal muscle functioning, leading to postural instability and increased falls risk. However, the link between impaired physical function, OA and falls have not been elucidated. We investigated the role of impaired physical function as a potential mediator in the association between OA and falls. This study included 389 participants [229 fallers (≥2 falls or one injurious fall in the past 12 months), 160 non-fallers (no history of falls)], age (≥65 years) from a randomized controlled trial, the Malaysian Falls Assessment and Intervention Trial (MyFAIT). Physical function was assessed using Timed Up and Go (TUG) and Functional Reach (FR) tests. Knee and hip OA were diagnosed using three methods: Clinical, Radiological and Self-report. OA symptom severity was assessed using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC). The total WOMAC score was categorized to asymptomatic, mild, moderate and severe symptoms. Individuals with radiological OA and ‘mild’ overall symptoms on the WOMAC score had reduced risk of falls compared to asymptomatic OA [OR: 0.402(0.172–0.940), p = 0.042]. Individuals with clinical OA and ‘severe’ overall symptoms had increased risk of falls compared to those with ‘mild’ OA [OR: 4.487(1.883–10.693), p = 0.005]. In individuals with radiological OA, mild symptoms appear protective of falls while those with clinical OA and severe symptoms have increased falls risk compared to those with mild symptoms. Both relationships between OA and falls were not mediated by physical limitations. Larger prospective studies are needed for further evaluation

Narratives of Industry Responses to Cyberbullying: Perspectives on Self-regulation From and About the Industry

In this chapter, we provide an overview of narratives about online inter- mediaries’ responses to cyberbullying from the perspectives of policy makers and the companies, as well as children and parents. Relevant self-regulatory and self- organisational efforts are discussed aswell as the rationales for their adoption; includ- ing how the effectiveness of these efforts is seen from the perspectives of various stakeholders. We draw attention to the relative paucity of data on effectiveness of companies’ mechanisms, particularly from the perspective of any benefits received by children as a result of these interventions and support

The Role of Environmental Transmission in Recurrent Avian Influenza Epidemics

Avian influenza virus (AIV) persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2–4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host–pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size). Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2–4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year) are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish

Informed Switching Strongly Decreases the Prevalence of Antibiotic Resistance in Hospital Wards

Antibiotic resistant nosocomial infections are an important cause of mortality and morbidity in hospitals. Antibiotic cycling has been proposed to contain this spread by a coordinated use of different antibiotics. Theoretical work, however, suggests that often the random deployment of drugs (“mixing”) might be the better strategy. We use an epidemiological model for a single hospital ward in order to assess the performance of cycling strategies which take into account the frequency of antibiotic resistance in the hospital ward. We assume that information on resistance frequencies stems from microbiological tests, which are performed in order to optimize individual therapy. Thus the strategy proposed here represents an optimization at population-level, which comes as a free byproduct of optimizing treatment at the individual level. We find that in most cases such an informed switching strategy outperforms both periodic cycling and mixing, despite the fact that information on the frequency of resistance is derived only from a small sub-population of patients. Furthermore we show that the success of this strategy is essentially a stochastic phenomenon taking advantage of the small population sizes in hospital wards. We find that the performance of an informed switching strategy can be improved substantially if information on resistance tests is integrated over a period of one to two weeks. Finally we argue that our findings are robust against a (moderate) preexistence of doubly resistant strains and against transmission via environmental reservoirs. Overall, our results suggest that switching between different antibiotics might be a valuable strategy in small patient populations, if the switching strategies take the frequencies of resistance alleles into account