Including Risk in Economic Feasibility Analyses: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas

The widespread use of personal computers and spreadsheet models for feasibility studies makes risk-based Monte Carlo simulation analysis of proposed investments a relatively simple task. Add-in simulation packages for Microsoft® Excel can be used to make spreadsheet models stochastic. Rather than basing investment decisions on point estimates, investors can easily estimate the implied distributions of returns for uncertain investments and calculate the risk of an investment as well as the probability of success. The benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation to analyze a risky investment are demonstrated using an ethanol plant as an example.economic feasibility analysis, ethanol feasibility, risk management, stochastic simulation, Agribusiness, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Risk Assessment in Economic Feasibility Analysis: The Case of Ethanol Production in Texas

The objective of this study is to demonstrate the benefits of quantifying the economic viability of a proposed agribusiness under risk relative to a feasibility study which ignores risk. To achieve this objective, the economic viability of a 50 MMGPY ethanol facility in Texas is analyzed over a 10-year period in two ways: with no risk and with historical risk for prices and costs.Risk and Uncertainty,

Impaired glucose tolerance or newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus diagnosed during admission adversely affects prognosis after myocardial infarction: An observational study

Objective To investigate the prognostic effect of newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (NDM) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) post myocardial infarction (MI). Research Design and Methods Retrospective cohort study of 768 patients without preexisting diabetes mellitus post-MI at one centre in Yorkshire between November 2005 and October 2008. Patients were categorised as normal glucose tolerance (NGT n = 337), IGT (n = 279) and NDM (n = 152) on predischarge oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Primary end-point was the first occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, severe heart failure (HF) or non-haemorrhagic stroke. Secondary end-points were all cause mortality and individual components of MACE. Results Prevalence of NGT, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), IGT and NDM changed from 90%, 6%, 0% and 4% on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) to 43%, 1%, 36% and 20% respectively after OGTT. 102 deaths from all causes (79 as first events of which 46 were cardiovascular), 95 non fatal MI, 18 HF and 9 non haemorrhagic strokes occurred during 47.2 ± 9.4 months follow up. Event free survival was lower in IGT and NDM groups. IGT (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.06–2.24, p = 0.024) and NDM (HR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.42–3.24, p = 0.003) independently predicted MACE free survival. IGT and NDM also independently predicted incidence of MACE. NDM but not IGT increased the risk of secondary end-points. Conclusion Presence of IGT and NDM in patients presenting post-MI, identified using OGTT, is associated with increased incidence of MACE and is associated with adverse outcomes despite adequate secondary prevention

An Economic Examination of Potential Ethanol Production in Texas

Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Bose-Fermi mixtures in 1D optical superlattices

The zero temperature phase diagram of binary boson-fermion mixtures in two-colour superlattices is investigated. The eigenvalue problem associated with the Bose-Fermi-Hubbard Hamiltonian is solved using an exact numerical diagonalization technique, supplemented by an adaptive basis truncation scheme. The physically motivated basis truncation allows to access larger systems in a fully controlled and very flexible framework. Several experimentally relevant observables, such as the matter-wave interference pattern and the condensatefraction, are investigated in order to explore the rich phase diagram. At symmetric half filling a phase similar to the Mott-insulating phase in a commensurate purely bosonic system is identified and an analogy to recent experiments is pointed out. Furthermore a phase of complete localization of the bosonic species generated by the repulsive boson-fermion interaction is identified. These localized condensates are of a different nature than the genuine Bose-Einstein condensates in optical lattices.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figure

Gender Differences in Self-Confidence on a Feminine-Typed Task

Abstract: The present study answere

Oral complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use varies across chronic conditions and attitudes to risk

Objectives: To determine whether chronic conditions and patient factors, such as risk perception and decision-making preferences, are associated with complementary medicine and alternative practitioner use in a representative longitudinal population cohort. Participants and setting: Analysis of data from Stage 2 of the North West Adelaide Health Study of 3161 adults who attended a study clinic visit in 2004–2006. The main outcome measures were the medications brought by participants to the study clinic visit, chronic health conditions, attitudes to risk, levels of satisfaction with conventional medicine, and preferred decision-making style. Results: At least one oral complementary medicine was used by 27.9% of participants, and 7.3% were visiting alternative practitioners (naturopath, osteopath). Oral complementary medicine use was significantly associated with arthritis, osteoporosis, and mental health conditions, but not with other chronic conditions. Any pattern of complementary medicine use was generally significantly associated with female gender, age at least 45 years, patient-driven decision-making preferences(odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.77), and frequent general practitioner visits (.five per year; OR 3.62, 95% CI: 2.13–6.17). Alternative practitioner visitors were younger, with higher levels of education (diploma/trade [OR 1.88, 95% CI: 1.28–2.76], bachelor’s degree [OR 1.77, 95% CI: 1.11–2.82], income . $80,000 (OR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.26–4.11), female gender (OR 3.15, 95% CI: 2.19–4.52), joint pain not diagnosed as arthritis (OR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.17–2.41), moderate to severe depressive symptoms (OR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.04–4.46), and risk-taking behaviour (3.26, 1.80–5.92), or low-to-moderate risk aversion (OR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.26–4.11). Conclusion: Although there is widespread use of complementary medicines in the Australian community, there are differing patterns of use between those using oral complementary medicines and those using alternative practitioners.Robert J Adams, Sarah L Appleton, Antonia Cole, Tiffany K Gill, Anne W Taylor and Catherine L Hil

Physiology

Contains reports on three research projects

Predictability of thermal fluctuations influences functional traits of a cosmopolitan marine diatom

Evolutionary theory predicts that organismal plasticity should evolve in environments that fluctuate regularly. However, in environments that fluctuate less predictably, plasticity may be constrained because environmental cues become less reliable for expressing the optimum phenotype. Here, we examine how the predictability of +5°C temperature fluctuations impacts the phenotype of the marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana. Thermal regimes were informed by temperatures experienced by microbes in an ocean simulation and featured regular or irregular temporal sequences of fluctuations that induced mild physiological stress. Physiological traits (growth, cell size, complexity and pigmentation) were quantified at the individual cell level using flow cytometry. Changes in cellular complexity emerged as the first impact of predictability after only 8–11 days, followed by deleterious impacts on growth on days 13–16. Specifically, cells with a history of irregular fluctuation exposure exhibited a 50% reduction in growth compared with the stable reference environment, while growth was 3–18 times higher when fluctuations were regular. We observed no evidence of heat hardening (increasingly positive growth) with recurrent fluctuations. This study demonstrates that unpredictable temperature fluctuations impact this cosmopolitan diatom under ecologically relevant time frames, suggesting shifts in environmental stochasticity under a changing climate could have widespread consequences among ocean primary producers