Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level

Cross modal perception of body size in domestic dogs (Canis familiaris)

While the perception of size-related acoustic variation in animal vocalisations is well documented, little attention has been given to how this information might be integrated with corresponding visual information. Using a cross-modal design, we tested the ability of domestic dogs to match growls resynthesised to be typical of either a large or a small dog to size- matched models. Subjects looked at the size-matched model significantly more often and for a significantly longer duration than at the incorrect model, showing that they have the ability to relate information about body size from the acoustic domain to the appropriate visual category. Our study suggests that the perceptual and cognitive mechanisms at the basis of size assessment in mammals have a multisensory nature, and calls for further investigations of the multimodal processing of size information across animal species

Blood transcriptomic discrimination of bacterial and viral infections in the emergency department: a multi-cohort observational validation study

Background: There is an urgent need to develop biomarkers that stratify risk of bacterial infection in order to support antimicrobial stewardship in emergency hospital admissions. / Methods: We used computational machine learning to derive a rule-out blood transcriptomic signature of bacterial infection (SeptiCyte™ TRIAGE) from eight published case-control studies. We then validated this signature by itself in independent case-control data from more than 1500 samples in total, and in combination with our previously published signature for viral infections (SeptiCyte™ VIRUS) using pooled data from a further 1088 samples. Finally, we tested the performance of these signatures in a prospective observational cohort of emergency department (ED) patients with fever, and we used the combined SeptiCyte™ signature in a mixture modelling approach to estimate the prevalence of bacterial and viral infections in febrile ED patients without microbiological diagnoses. / Results: The combination of SeptiCyte™ TRIAGE with our published signature for viral infections (SeptiCyte™ VIRUS) discriminated bacterial and viral infections in febrile ED patients, with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90–1), compared to 0.79 (0.68–0.91) for WCC and 0.73 (0.61–0.86) for CRP. At pre-test probabilities 0.35 and 0.72, the combined SeptiCyte™ score achieved a negative predictive value for bacterial infection of 0.97 (0.90–0.99) and 0.86 (0.64–0.96), compared to 0.90 (0.80–0.94) and 0.66 (0.48–0.79) for WCC and 0.88 (0.69–0.95) and 0.60 (0.31–0.72) for CRP. In a mixture modelling approach, the combined SeptiCyte™ score estimated that 24% of febrile ED cases receiving antibacterials without a microbiological diagnosis were due to viral infections. Our analysis also suggested that a proportion of patients with bacterial infection recovered without antibacterials. / Conclusions: Blood transcriptional biomarkers offer exciting opportunities to support precision antibacterial prescribing in ED and improve diagnostic classification of patients without microbiologically confirmed infections

Climate Change and invasibility of the Antarctic benthos

Benthic communities living in shallow-shelf habitats in Antarctica (<100-m depth) are archaic in their structure and function. Modern predators, including fast-moving, durophagous (skeleton-crushing) bony fish, sharks, and crabs, are rare or absent; slow-moving invertebrates are the top predators; and epifaunal suspension feeders dominate many soft substratum communities. Cooling temperatures beginning in the late Eocene excluded durophagous predators, ultimately resulting in the endemic living fauna and its unique food-web structure. Although the Southern Ocean is oceanographically isolated, the barriers to biological invasion are primarily physiological rather than geographic. Cold temperatures impose limits to performance that exclude modern predators. Global warming is now removing those physiological barriers, and crabs are reinvading Antarctica. As sea temperatures continue to rise, the invasion of durophagous predators will modernize the shelf benthos and erode the indigenous character of marine life in Antarctica

Solving the mu problem with a heavy Higgs boson

We discuss the generation of the mu-term in a class of supersymmetric models characterized by a low energy effective superpotential containing a term lambda S H_1 H_2 with a large coupling lambda~2. These models generically predict a lightest Higgs boson well above the LEP limit of 114 GeV and have been shown to be compatible with the unification of gauge couplings. Here we discuss a specific example where the superpotential has no dimensionful parameters and we point out the relation between the generated mu-term and the mass of the lightest Higgs boson. We discuss the fine-tuning of the model and we find that the generation of a phenomenologically viable mu-term fits very well with a heavy lightest Higgs boson and a low degree of fine-tuning. We discuss experimental constraints from collider direct searches, precision data, thermal relic dark matter abundance, and WIMP searches finding that the most natural region of the parameter space is still allowed by current experiments. We analyse bounds on the masses of the superpartners coming from Naturalness arguments and discuss the main signatures of the model for the LHC and future WIMP searches.Comment: Extended discussion of the LHC phenomenology, as published on JHEP plus an addendum on the existence of further extremal points of the potential. 47 pages, 16 figure

Climate Change and Trophic Response of the Antarctic Bottom Fauna

BACKGROUND: As Earth warms, temperate and subpolar marine species will increasingly shift their geographic ranges poleward. The endemic shelf fauna of Antarctica is especially vulnerable to climate-mediated biological invasions because cold temperatures currently exclude the durophagous (shell-breaking) predators that structure shallow-benthic communities elsewhere. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used the Eocene fossil record from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, to project specifically how global warming will reorganize the nearshore benthos of Antarctica. A long-term cooling trend, which began with a sharp temperature drop approximately 41 Ma (million years ago), eliminated durophagous predators-teleosts (modern bony fish), decapod crustaceans (crabs and lobsters) and almost all neoselachian elasmobranchs (modern sharks and rays)-from Antarctic nearshore waters after the Eocene. Even prior to those extinctions, durophagous predators became less active as coastal sea temperatures declined from 41 Ma to the end of the Eocene, approximately 33.5 Ma. In response, dense populations of suspension-feeding ophiuroids and crinoids abruptly appeared. Dense aggregations of brachiopods transcended the cooling event with no apparent change in predation pressure, nor were there changes in the frequency of shell-drilling predation on venerid bivalves. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Rapid warming in the Southern Ocean is now removing the physiological barriers to shell-breaking predators, and crabs are returning to the Antarctic Peninsula. Over the coming decades to centuries, we predict a rapid reversal of the Eocene trends. Increasing predation will reduce or eliminate extant dense populations of suspension-feeding echinoderms from nearshore habitats along the Peninsula while brachiopods will continue to form large populations, and the intensity of shell-drilling predation on infaunal bivalves will not change appreciably. In time the ecological effects of global warming could spread to other portions of the Antarctic coast. The differential responses of faunal components will reduce the endemic character of Antarctic subtidal communities, homogenizing them with nearshore communities at lower latitudes

Bow shocks, nova shells, disc winds and tilted discs: the nova-like V341 Ara has it all

V341 Ara was recently recognized as one of the closest (d ≃ 150 pc) and brightest (V ≃ 10) nova-like cataclysmic variables. This unique system is surrounded by a bright emission nebula, likely to be the remnant of a recent nova eruption. Embedded within this nebula is a prominent bow shock, where the system’s accretion disc wind runs into its own nova shell. In order to establish its fundamental properties, we present the first comprehensive multiwavelength study of the system. Long-term photometry reveals quasi-periodic, super-orbital variations with a characteristic time-scale of 10–16 d and typical amplitude of ≃1 mag. High-cadence photometry from theTransiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) reveals for the first time both the orbital period and a ‘negative superhump’ period. The latter is usually interpreted as the signature of a tilted accretion disc. We propose a recently developed disc instability model as a plausible explanation for the photometric behaviour. In our spectroscopic data, we clearly detect antiphased absorption and emission-line components. Their radial velocities suggest a high mass ratio, which in turn implies an unusually low white-dwarf mass. We also constrain the wind mass-loss rate of the system from the spatially resolved [O III] emission produced in the bow shock; this can be used to test and calibrate accretion disc wind models. We suggest a possible association between V341 Ara and a ‘guest star’ mentioned in Chinese historical records in AD 1240. If this marks the date of the system’s nova eruption, V341 Ara would be the oldest recovered nova of its class and an excellent laboratory for testing nova theory

Satellite Data-Based Phenological Evaluation of the Nationwide Reforestation of South Korea

Through the past 60 years, forests, now of various age classes, have been established in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula through nationwide efforts to reestablish forests since the Korean War (1950-53), during which more than 65% of the nation's forest was destroyed. Careful evaluation of long-term changes in vegetation growth after reforestation is one of the essential steps to ensuring sustainable forest management. This study investigated nationwide variations in vegetation phenology using satellite-based growing season estimates for 1982-2008. The start of the growing season calculated from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) agrees reasonably with the ground-observed first flowering date both temporally (correlation coefficient, r = 0.54) and spatially (r = 0.64) at the 95% confidence level. Over the entire 27-year period, South Korea, on average, experienced a lengthening of the growing season of 4.5 days decade(-1), perhaps due to recent global warming. The lengthening of the growing season is attributed mostly to delays in the end of the growing season. The retrieved nationwide growing season data were used to compare the spatial variations in forest biomass carbon density with the time-averaged growing season length for 61 forests. Relatively higher forest biomass carbon density was observed over the regions having a longer growing season, especially for the regions dominated by young (<30 year) forests. These results imply that a lengthening of the growing season related to the ongoing global warming may have positive impacts on carbon sequestration, an important aspect of large-scale forest management for sustainable development.open2