European natural gas markets: resource constraints and market power

We analyze long-run scenarios for the European natural gas markets in a model, NATGAS, that explicitly includes both resource constraints and producers’ market power. Europa wordt geconfronteerd met afnemende eigen aardgasvoorraden, met name in de van oudsher grote producenten het Verenigd Koninkrijk en Nederland. De Europese afhankelijkheid van een beperkt aantal grote aardgasleveranciers zal toenemen. Daarmee groeit ook de marktmacht van deze producerende landen. We bekijken de invloed van de beschikbaarheid van vloeibaar aardgas, LNG, op de marktaandelen van producenten en de snelheid van uitputting van Europese voorraden. We bestuderen in het bijzonder hoe in de verschilende scenario's de schaduwprijzen van eindige voorraden de productiebeslissingen beïnvloeden. The European natural gas market is characterized by declining indigenous resources, particularly in the UK and the Netherlands, and a growing dependence on a small number of large exporters who, as a consequence, see their market power increasing. We analyze the impact of conditions on the global LNG market on market shares of pipeline gas suppliers, as well as on the speed of depletion of indigenous European resources. We focus on how shadow prices of resource constraints affect substitution patterns in the various scenarios.

Competition for access; spectrum rights and downstream access in wireless telecommunications

We analyse downstream access and capacity choice in the market for wireless telecommunications, where spectrum rights are owned by vertically integrated duopolists and may be traded. In the market for wireless telecommunications, radio spectrum is an essential input. Prior to network construction, the incumbents may offer contracts for capacity to an entrant, granting service-based access on the network they will construct. Alternatively, when spectrum trading is allowed, they may sell part of their license, allowing the entrant to build its own network and enter as an infrastructure player. We find that in this Cournot setting, access is generally provided, as incumbents compete to appropriate the profits of serving a differentiated market through the entrant. Although selling spectrum rights instead of network capacity leads to a loss of economies of scale in infrastructure construction, infrastructure-based entry may dominate as a result of a strategic effect. By delegating capacity choice to the entrant, the access providing incumbent can commit to compete more aggressively, causing its rival incumbent to reduce capacity. A lower aggregate capacity will increase prices and thereby profits.

Government involvement in liberalised gas markets; a welfare-economic analysis of Dutch gas-depletion policy

This report analyses the welfare effects of two major components of the Dutch gas-depletion policy: the offtake guarantee for small-fields gas and the cap on production from the Groningen field. We conclude that the benefits of offtake guarantee currently may outweigh the costs, but a further development of the gas market would reverse this picture. The cost of the offtake guarantee is that it gives operators reduced incentives to respond optimally to short-term changes in market conditions compared to a competitive market. Regarding the cap on Groningen (42.5 bcm per year), we find that this measure is inefficient when the cap is binding, i.e. restricting the production from the Groningen field. The costs of capping Groningen production follow from shifting returns to the future. The benefits of this measures consist of slightly positive effects on small-fields production and positive benefits for security of supply. Read the�background documents: CPB Memorandum 143: "Market failures and government policies in gas markets" CPB Memorandum 144: "NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market" �

NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market

The NATural GAS model is an integrated model of the European wholesale gas market providing long-run projections of supply, transport, storage and consumption patterns in the model region, aggregated in 5-year periods, distinguishing two seasons (winter and summer). Model results include levels of investment in the various branches, output and consumption, depletion of reserves and price levels. The NATGAS model computes long-term effects of policy measures on future gas production and gas prices in Europe. NATGAS is an equilibrium model describing behaviour of gas producers, investors in infrastructure (pipeline, LNG capacity, as well as storage), traders and consumers. NATGAS covers the main European demand regions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Moreover, it covers the main origins of supply on the European market, such as Russia, Norway, Algeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and LNG. In this memorandum, we first discuss the theoretical background as well as the model specifications. Afterwards, we describe the data we used, present some results and assess validity by computing sensitivities and comparing with current developments.

Optimal regulation of energy network expansion when costs are stochastic

We analyze optimal regulation of the gradual investments in energy networks necessary to accommodate the energy transition. We focus on a real option problem where costs of new network technology are stochastic and not observable to the regulator. We solve for the regulatory scheme that optimally balances timely investments with rent extraction in this dynamic agency context. We then apply this methodology to a situation in which investment can be either in traditional network technology, with observable costs, or using an innovative network technology for which there is asymmetric information on costs. The optimal choice trades off the potential benefits of cheaper expansion with the costs of overcoming information frictions

Competition for traders and risk

The financial crisis has been attributed partly to perverse incentives for traders at banks and has led policy makers to propose regulation of banks' remuneration packages. We explain why poor incentives for traders cannot be fully resolved by only regulating the bank's top executives, and why direct intervention in trader compensation is called for. We present a model with both trader moral hazard and adverse selection on trader abilities. We demonstrate that as competition on the labour market for traders intensifies, banks optimally offer top traders contracts inducing them to take more risk, even if banks fully internalize the costs of negative outcomes. In this way, banks can reduce the surplus they have to offer to lower ability traders. In addition, we find that increasing banks' capital requirements does not unambiguously lead to reduced risk-taking by their top traders.

Selective contracting and foreclosure in health care markets

This paper provides an analysis of exclusive contracts between health care providers and insurers in a model where some consumers choose to stay uninsured. In case of a monopoly insurer, exclusion of a provider changes the distribution of consumers who choose not to insure. Although the foreclosed care provider remains active in the market for the non-insured, we show that exclusion leads to anti-competitive effects on this non-insured market. As a consequence exclusion can raise industry profits, and then occurs in equilibrium. Under competitive insurance markets, the anticompetitive exclusive equilibrium survives. Uninsured consumers, however, are now not better off without exclusion. Competition among insurers raises prices in equilibria without exclusion, as a result of a horizontal analogue to the double marginalization effect. Instead, under competitive insurance markets exclusion is desirable as long as no provider is excluded by all insurers.

Competition leverage: How the demand side affects optimal risk adjustment

In this paper, the authors study optimal risk adjustment in imperfectly competitive health insurance markets when high-risk consumers are less likely to switch insurer than low-risk consumers. First,�they find that insurers still have an incentive to select even if risk adjustment perfectly corrects for cost differences among consumers. Consequently, the outcome is not efficient even if cost differences are fully compensated. To achieve first best, risk adjustment should overcompensate for serving high-risk agents to take into account the difference in markups among the two types. Second, the difference in switching behavior creates a trade�off between efficiency and consumer welfare. Reducing the difference in risk adjustment subsidies to high and low types increases consumer welfare by leveraging competition from the elastic low-risk market to the less elastic high-risk market. Finally, mandatory pooling can increase consumer surplus even further, at the cost of efficiency.

Liberalisation of European energy markets: challenges and policy options

The European electricity and gas markets have been going through a process of liberalisation since the early 1990s. This process has changed the sector from a regulated structure of, predominantly, publicly owned monopolists controlling the entire supply chain, into a market where private and public generators and retailers compete on a regulated and unbundled system of transport infrastructure. This report assesses the evidence of the effects of liberalisation on efficiency, security of energy supply and environmental sustainability.