Consumer demand for sorghum and millets in eastern and southern Africa: Priorities for the CGIAR Research Programme for Dryland Cereals; Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 35

This report was prepared to help the CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Cereals set research priorities for ESA. A clearer understanding of consumer demand for sorghum and millets is required so that the priorities for crop improvement and value chain development are based on market demand. This report summarizes current information on consumer demand for sorghum and millets in ESA, with particular reference to Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia. The analysis is based primarily on data from nationally representative household expenditure surveys for these four countries conducted between 2005 and 2012. The original data was obtained and re-analysed to determine the drivers of consumer demand for sorghum and millets. Results showed that the consumption estimates from these surveys were inconsistent with the data on the production and availability of sorghum and millets reported in national statistics. Consequently, we adjusted the results from the household expenditure surveys to match the production and population estimates for each country to allow comparisons across the four countries for 2013. Information on price and income elasticities was obtained from secondary literature, while information on prices were gathered from the World Bank and FAO data sets on commodity markets and prices Consumer demand for sorghum and millets in ESA is driven by population growth, urbanisation, income and price. Below, we summarise the findings for cereals in general, then separately for sorghum and millets

Value Chains for Sorghum and Millets in Eastern and Southern Africa: Priorities for the CGIAR research program for Dryland Cereals, Series Paper Number 42

A clearer understanding of commercial utilization of sorghum and millets is required so that the priorities for crop improvement can be based on market demand. This report was prepared to help the CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Cereals set research priorities for ESA. It complements an earlier report in the same series (No. 35) that identified research priorities based on household consumption of sorghum and millet grain (Gierend and Orr, 2015). This report extends the analysis to identify research priorities among the value chains for animal feed, flour, and beer. Utilization was analysed with specific reference to Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, for which information on these value chains was readily available. Unless otherwise stated, estimates of current and potential utilization in this report refer to the total for these four countries. The evidence is based on both secondary and primary data. For evidence on utilization at national level, we used national statistics on the production of animal feed, flour, and beer. Where this was not available, utilization was estimated from secondary studies of individual value chains. Interviews with value chain actors (including flour processors, brewers, and feed companies) provided information on quality standards, pricing, and constraints to the utilization of sorghum and millets. Primary data from 18 household surveys conducted by ICRISAT and research partners was used to estimate the commercialization of sorghum and millets at the household level

Sorghum and Millets in Eastern and Southern Africa : Facts, Trends and Outlook

This report analyses current and projected trends for sorghum and millets in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). Cereal production in this region is dominated by maize (70%) with sorghum accounting for 7% and millets 2% of total cereal production. Between 1981 and 2012, trends in the area, production and yield of sorghum were negative for southern but positive for eastern Africa, where production doubled to reach 6 million tons. Production growth was led by Ethiopia and Somalia. Yields varied widely, from 5 t/ha in Botswana and 2 t/ha in Ethiopia to 0.3 t/ha in Zimbabwe. Sorghum was used primarily for food (64%) or food processing (14%) with 19% for other non-food uses and just 3% for animal feed. ESA was a net importer of sorghum, with Ethiopia and Sudan the largest importers, and Uganda the largest exporter. Domestic prices for sorghum were higher than world prices, which ranged from $100-200 USD per t. Despite its image as a poor man’s crop, the price of sorghum was higher than for maize in Ethiopia and Kenya, although not in Zimbabwe. Trends in the area, production and yield of millets over the same period showed weak but positive growth. Four countries – Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Uganda – accounted for the bulk of production. Strong production growth in Ethiopia was offset by negative growth in Uganda due to civil unrest. Yields varied from 1.5 t/ha in Ethiopia to 0.2 t/ha in Zimbabwe. Millets were used primarily for food (68$200-400 USD per t, or twice the price of sorghum. Domestic prices were above world prices, with the relative price of millet higher than maize in Ethiopia and Kenya, though not in Zimbabwe. Trade in millets was thinner than for sorghum, with Kenya being the biggest regional importer. The East African Community allows free trade in cereals among member states but this is hindered by high transport costs and periodic export bans in drought years. Since 2004, the region has run a trade deficit in sorghum and millets. Nominal Rates of Protection between 2005 and 2012 were negative for sorghum and maize in Ethiopia, subsidizing domestic consumers, but positive or close to zero in Kenya, protecting domestic producers. Projections using the IMPACT model (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) show production of sorghum in ESA rising from 6.6 million t in 2015 to 19.5 million t in 2050, and from 2.3 to 7 million t for millets. By 2050 ESA is projected to change from being a net importer to being a net exporter of sorghum (2.5 million t) and millets (1.8 million t). Scenarios were run to determine the impact of higher income growth, 25% faster yield increases for sorghum, millets and maize, and climate change using climate models GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). In combination, the effect is positive, increasing production of sorghum by 33% and of millets by 56% over the baseline scenario by 2050.These results suggest that in the future, sorghum and millets will play an increasingly important role in food security and trade

A combined ex-post/ex-ante impact analysis for improved sorghum and finger millet varieties in Uganda, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series Number 19

This country-level impact study for Uganda combines ex-post and ex-ante estimation of research gains from improved sorghum and finger millet varieties developed by the National breeding program of Uganda together with its collaboration partners from international, national research institutions such as ICRISAT and private companies

A Combined ex-post/ex-ante impact analysis for improved sorghum varieties in Tanzania, Socioeconomics Discussion Paper Series 20

This country-level impact study for Tanzania combines ex-post and ex-ante estimation of research gains from improved sorghum varieties developed by the National breeding program of Tanzania together with its collaboration partners from international and national research institutions such as ICRISAT and private companies

Why invest in Research & Development for sorghum and millets? The business case for East and Southern Africa

This article synthesizes recent research by ICRISAT and its partners to analyse the business case for sorghum and millets in ESA and the wider strategy of commercialization on which this is based. The business case is stronger for sorghum because of its greater impact on poverty and food security, but millets are better suited to a strategy of commercialization. Commercial demand for millets is primarily driven by specialty markets for flour while that for sorghum is limited to beer. Demand for improved varieties is driven primarily by the need for early – maturity that shortens the hungry period. Future growth in production depends on increased opportunities for inter-regional trade

Eleven strategies for making reproducible research and open science training the norm at research institutions

Reproducible research and open science practices have the potential to accelerate scientific progress by allowing others to reuse research outputs, and by promoting rigorous research that is more likely to yield trustworthy results. However, these practices are uncommon in many fields, so there is a clear need for training that helps and encourages researchers to integrate reproducible research and open science practices into their daily work. Here, we outline eleven strategies for making training in these practices the norm at research institutions. The strategies, which emerged from a virtual brainstorming event organized in collaboration with the German Reproducibility Network, are concentrated in three areas: (i) adapting research assessment criteria and program requirements; (ii) training; (iii) building communities. We provide a brief overview of each strategy, offer tips for implementation, and provide links to resources. We also highlight the importance of allocating resources and monitoring impact. Our goal is to encourage researchers - in their roles as scientists, supervisors, mentors, instructors, and members of curriculum, hiring or evaluation committees - to think creatively about the many ways they can promote reproducible research and open science practices in their institutions

Eleven strategies for making reproducible research and open science training the norm at research institutions

Kohrs FE, Auer S, Bannach-Brown A, et al. Eleven strategies for making reproducible research and open science training the norm at research institutions. eLife . 2023;12: e89736.Reproducible research and open science practices have the potential to accelerate scientific progress by allowing others to reuse research outputs, and by promoting rigorous research that is more likely to yield trustworthy results. However, these practices are uncommon in many fields, so there is a clear need for training that helps and encourages researchers to integrate reproducible research and open science practices into their daily work. Here, we outline eleven strategies for making training in these practices the norm at research institutions. The strategies, which emerged from a virtual brainstorming event organized in collaboration with the German Reproducibility Network, are concentrated in three areas: (i) adapting research assessment criteria and program requirements; (ii) training; (iii) building communities. We provide a brief overview of each strategy, offer tips for implementation, and provide links to resources. We also highlight the importance of allocating resources and monitoring impact. Our goal is to encourage researchers - in their roles as scientists, supervisors, mentors, instructors, and members of curriculum, hiring or evaluation committees - to think creatively about the many ways they can promote reproducible research and open science practices in their institutions. © 2023, Kohrs et al